Week 4 of the college football season continues with my college football picks and predictions for the evening slate, including Kansas against West Virginia in the Big 12.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 4, here's the full piece.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 9-7 (56.25%)
- Overall: 178-130-2 (57.8%)
College Football Picks for Saturday's Evening Slate
  | 6 p.m. | Kansas -12 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Louisiana Tech -2.5 |
Kansas -12 vs. West Virginia
6 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
This is probably the most obvious situational spot on the board and one I had circled before the season.
I'm sure Kansas has had this circled all offseason as well, after it started Big 12 play in 2024 with a loss in Morgantown in a game it led by 11 with four minutes to go in regulation before a monumental collapse.
Following a thrilling comeback victory over rival Pitt in overtime, West Virginia now must travel to Lawrence to take on a Kansas team fresh off a bye.
Not only should the Jayhawks come in fresher (the high-tempo 'Eers ran a ton of plays last week to boot) with additional time to prep for this matchup with an elite head coach in Lance Leipold, but they will also boast a much better injury situation.
While West Virginia has lost three key offensive contributors in recent weeks, Kansas should arrive at the stadium almost entirely healthy — even at linebacker, which bodes well in this particular matchup against the run-first Mountaineers.
The West Virginia offense is struggling due to a poor offensive line and some key injuries.
I don't see the Mountaineers having much success on the ground against a much more athletic Jayhawk front that ranks in the top-20 nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and EPA per Rush allowed. Until a late broken run, they really held an extremely dynamic Missouri rushing attack in check.
The way to attack the Jayhawks' defense is through the air after the departure of two All-American cornerbacks. Still, I don't think West Virginia has the personnel to consistently exploit those deficiencies on the back end.
And if it's failing quickly with its tempo, it may wear down late.
In regard to Kansas, that extra prep time should really help quarterback Jalon Daniels and his new receivers build more chemistry and work on timing after he missed the spring with an injury.
And looking under the hood, the underlying, more predictive early-down metrics are pretty encouraging for the Jayhawks on both sides of the ball. The late-down success should begin to follow suit.
The West Virginia defense, which seems to have hit on several lower-level transfers, has been a very pleasant surprise under new defensive coordinator Zac Alley. However, the dam should eventually break here, especially with the threat of Daniels' legs.
Keep in mind that West Virginia lost, 17-10, on the road at Ohio in a game where it recorded three interceptions. The Bobcats finished with nearly 200 more net yards.
The West Virginia offense is just not where it needs to be at the moment, with Rich Rod even benching starting quarterback Nicco Marchiol last week and bringing in two others before going back to Nicco in the end to lead the crazy comeback in the final minutes in a game where Pitt helped them out with 14 penalties.
Lastly, expect Kansas to win the field-position battle throughout the night with a much better overall special teams unit at the moment.
Notable Nugget
Rich Rodriguez is the least profitable road underdog among all active head coaches, with a 15-27 ATS record (35.7%).
Projection: Kansas -13.7
Pick: Kansas -13 or Better
Louisiana Tech -2.5 vs. Southern Miss
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
I'm not buying all of the Southern Miss love.
Yes, the Golden Eagles took care of business last week against Appalachian State, but they also benefited from three interceptions on goal-to-go situations in the first half, including a fluky one they returned 99 yards for a touchdown.
That led to the Mountaineers benching their quarterback for the second half, which didn't help matters. It was undoubtedly a misleading result, as was the final score against FCS Jackson State in a relatively even game statistically.
The Golden Eagles can't run the ball and struggle to stop opposing ground games. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech has the much stouter defense (only allowing 12.3 points per game) that even gave LSU fits at times in Baton Rouge.
It has been more of a struggle on the offensive side for the Bulldogs' modified Air Raid attack, but they seemed to find something last game after finally making a quarterback change.
JUCO transfer Trey Kukuk originally came out of nowhere to win the starting job. My first thoughts were that they must have struck gold, but it was clear from the first drive that he wasn't the best candidate to run this type of offense. His primary contributions came with his legs, as he's a very dynamic athlete.
However, the other two quarterbacks on the roster (who both played last year) were clearly much more equipped to run the offense.
Consequently, head coach Sonny Cumbie decided to start Blake Baker under center last week, which led to a 49-point outburst against New Mexico State. They still used Kukuk as a runner in certain packages, which I believe is the best approach. It's worth noting Kukuk is questionable with an injury, as is starting cornerback Cedrick Woods, which I am monitoring.
The Bulldogs ended up rushing for 354 yards on a whopping 63 carries while holding the Aggies to just 28 yards on 16 attempts.
I'll take the better defense at home with the more reliable rush offense and defense.
I also think the Bulldogs might be a bit undervalued after the recent quarterback shakeup, while the Golden Eagles may be on the other end of the spectrum after a couple of misleading final scores.
Lastly, it wouldn't shock me if we didn't get an entirely focused effort from Southern Miss for this nonconference clash following its first conference victory in nearly two years.
Projection: Louisiana Tech -3.7
Pick: Louisiana Tech -3 or Better
