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You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers. To kick off the chalk talk this week, we're rolling with two Power 4 favorites.
Let's dive into our Week 7 college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Mississippi State vs. LSU and Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech on Saturday, Oct. 17.
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Week 7 College Football Picks
- LSU -15.5 vs. Mississippi State
- Virginia Tech -10 vs. Georgia Tech
Mississippi State vs LSU Pick
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -110 | 56.5 -115o / -105u | +500 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -110 | 56.5 -115o / -105u | -720 |
LSU is the play here because every time I put together a meal this week, the number keeps moving in that direction.
I played this on Monday as my Havoc Play of the Week.
LSU ranks seventh in Havoc against Mississippi State’s ranking of 55th Havoc allowed, and that’s a big piece of the matchup. It also played a major role in Alabama’s easy win over Mississippi State because the Bulldogs just couldn’t handle the pressure.
Princewill Umanmielen is absolutely dominating with pressures, which is bad news for a Mississippi State offensive line that ranks 116th in pass blocking. That's not a good combo, even if Kamario Taylor — who's listed as questionable — ends up playing.
If you look at Tigers safety Tamarcus Cooley and linebacker TJ Dottery, they rank among the best coverage defenders in college football, coming in at second and third in the nation, per PFF. That's just insane production.
On the other side, Taylor had two interceptions and three turnover-worthy plays against Alabama, and I think that tape might have exposed what I’ve been saying all season. He’s basically a one-for-one ratio guy in that area.
Both Taylor and running back Fluff Bothwell are listed as questionable after the bye week, and I’m guessing that turf toe still isn’t fully cleared up. Taylor took 21 pressures and six sacks against Alabama, and now it feels like this is happening all over again.
If Taylor can’t go, Mississippi State’s hopes would fall on backup quarterback Parker Puckett, who's a major downgrade from Taylor.
Pick: LSU -15.5
Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech Pick
| Georgia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -108 | 56.5 -108o / -112u | +295 |
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -112 | 56.5 -108o / -112u | -375 |
By Stuckey
James Franklin is bouncing back here.
Georgia Tech picked up a huge win in a great spot over Duke last week, but now the Yellow Jackets are beat up and dealing with a lot of injuries.
Virginia Tech, meanwhile, arguably should have beaten Cal and definitely should have beaten Pitt. VT has been unlucky, but I think that turns here.
The Hokies should be able to create Havoc and hit some explosive plays against a bad and beat-up Yellow Jackets defense. I like the matchup, and I think we’re getting Virginia Tech at a cheap number. I make this closer to 13.
So, give me Virginia Tech. Hopefully the Hokies remember how to make field goals again after a disaster in that area of the game last week.
But Franklin knows about the spread. No settling for field goals here — go get that cover. I think it’s a good spot for the Hokies and a solid matchup.
Pick: Virginia Tech -10
