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You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers. To kick off the chalk talk this week, we're rolling with one Power 4 favorite in the Big Ten and another in the ACC.
Let's dive into our Week 9 college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Minnesota vs. Indiana and Virginia vs. Wake Forest on Saturday, Oct. 31.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for additional picks and analysis.
Week 9 College Football Picks
- Indiana -20.5 vs. Minnesota
- Wake Forest -12 vs. Virginia
Minnesota vs Indiana Pick
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -110 | 41.5 -102o / -120u | +1100 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -110 | 41.5 -102o / -120u | -2300 |
By Stuckey
I’m going to back Indiana against Minnesota here.
I know quarterback Josh Hoover might not be fully healthy, but I don’t think that’s going to matter much.
Indiana is also playing its ninth straight game after three tough ones, so maybe you worry about some fatigue, but this team plays slow, and it really doesn't have injury concerns outside of Hoover. I think it'll be able to run the ball in this spot.
Minnesota, meanwhile, is coming off a huge win, but I don’t think that win was all that convincing. We were on them, but it was just a rare special teams disaster for Iowa.
The Hawkeyes still outgained the Gophers by 80 yards, but Minnesota got four takeaways, including two interceptions, and that was the difference. Iowa was also driving near the goal line and came up empty.
The problem for Minnesota is that its offense just can’t run the ball. This is the worst Power 4 rushing team, and that’s a really bad matchup against an Indiana defense that's elite against the run.
So, this game is going to come down to Drake Lindsey dropping back against this Indiana defense, and that’s not a great recipe for the Gophers.
Lindsey struggles badly under pressure, and he’s going to see plenty of it here. He has also been horrendous against zone, and Indiana is going to throw a lot of zone at him. We’ve seen enough to know how this can go.
Minnesota’s wins have come against Michigan, Iowa, Akron, Eastern Illinois and Washington. The only time it really stepped up in class was against Mississippi State, and it got blown out.
And after that home upset over Michigan, the Gophers celebrated like they had won the Super Bowl, then went to Purdue and got outgained on the ground by 300 yards in a 28-point loss. I think something similar happens here.
Minnesota is just 2-5 against the spread in true road games over the last two seasons, and those losses have come by an average of 13 points per game. Four of them came by 28, 29, 38 and 39 points.
This feels like a classic P.J. Fleck spot last week and a classic Fleck letdown this week.
Give me the Hoosiers.
Pick: Indiana -20.5
Virginia vs Wake Forest Pick
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 -108 | 48.5 -115o / -105u | +400 |
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12 -112 | 48.5 -115o / -105u | -530 |
One of my favorite bets of the week is Wake Forest hosting Virginia.
Virginia is on its eighth straight game. This team has to be exhausted.
Two dozen players were on the UVA availability report, and there’s no overlook spot here for Wake Forest with Merrimack on deck. There’s just no reason for the Deacs not to unload in this one.
Virginia ranks 124th in passing down EPA allowed, and that’s not going to hold up against Wake quarterback Gio Lopez, who ranks fifth in passing down Success Rate.
If Wake Forest gets off schedule for some reason, look out. It could be about a play away from breaking off a big touchdown due to that discrepancy in passing downs.
The Hoos also rank 123rd on third downs, so they can’t really attack one of Wake Forest’s biggest weaknesses, which is third-down defense.
And if Wake doesn’t have a pass rush, it’s probably not going to matter here. It's middle-of-the-pack in FBS in Havoc, but I don’t think that changes much in this spot.
I think Lopez absolutely goes off here. And with Virginia playing its eighth game in a row and 24 players on the availability report, they’re in the exact kind of spot where that bye week can’t come soon enough.
Pick: Wake Forest -12
