The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers take on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in Jacksonville, Alabama. Kickoff is set for 2:00 p.m. EST on ESPN+.
Western Kentucky is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. The total is set at 55.5 points.
Here’s my Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 29, 2025.
Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State Prediction
- Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Pick: Jacksonville State +3 or better
My Jax State vs. Western Kentucky best bet is on the Gamecocks to cover the spread at home. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State Odds
| W. Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Jax State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
- Western Kentucky vs Jax State point spread: Western Kentucky -2.5 (-115), Jacksonville State +2.5 (-105)
- Western Kentucky vs Jax State over/under: 55.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Western Kentucky vs Jax State moneyline: Western Kentucky -140, Jacksonville State +120
Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State Preview
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Preview: Passing Lean, Injuries, and Defensive Inflation
Western Kentucky was on the verge of pulling off one of the biggest upsets in recent college football last week. It played LSU to a 13-10 finish in Baton Rouge and appeared to be keeping pace with the Tigers.
That's the story of the box score, anyway.
Dig deeper, and you'll find that the game wasn't nearly as close as advertised.
Western Kentucky managed to gain just 15% of available yards, and Bill Connelly's SP+ gave LSU a 91.7% postgame win expectancy.
That doesn't change the fact that the Toppers were one long play away from winning the game, but it does cast a different light on the Hilltoppers moving forward.
Quarterback Maverick McIvor continues to deal with a shoulder injury that sidelined him back in Week 8. In his place, redshirt freshman Rodney Tisdale Jr. has taken the reins.
He's played more or less on par with McIvor – both a testament to Rick Bowie's ability to construct a quarterback-friendly system and coach his quarterbacks up – but Tisdale is more of a rushing threat.
Receivers Matthew Henry and K.D. Hutchinson forms one of the better CUSA receiving duos, and they've been leaned on far more by the inexperienced Tisdale.
In previous years, Western Kentucky has managed to couple its Air Raid with a surprisingly effective run game. This year, that's gone almost entirely by the wayside. The Hilltoppers rank 65th nationally in Rush Success Rate while generating nearly no explosive plays.
Leading rusher Marvis Parrish has just 450 yards to his name (but also eight touchdowns), and only 12 teams opt to throw the ball more frequently than the Toppers.
The other key to Western Kentucky's success under Tyson Helton has been a stout defense. This isn't your Air Raid team of old getting into regular 50-45 shootouts.
On the surface, the Toppers' top-30 stature in points per drive stands out as a real plus. They allow just a 36.5% Success Rate, which ranks 17th, and an even better 34.8% Passing Success Rate, which is 11th-best.
But let's assess the opposing slate, which is pretty bad even by CUSA standards.
Opposing offenses Western Kentucky has faced this year rank an average of 96.1 in points per drive and have been topped by Toledo (54th) and Delaware (68th). The Rockets dumped 45 on the Toppers, and the Blue Hens gained 70% of available yards but had the darndest time finishing drives.
That's to say, better offenses have been able to get theirs against this defense.
Away from home, Western Kentucky is 3-2 with all three wins having come by a combined nine points. To its credit, that 3-2 record also comes with a 4-1 against-the-spread record.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks Betting Preview: Home Dominance and Explosiveness
Jacksonville State is on the short list for surprise teams in 2025.
While North Texas, BYU, and Vanderbilt command all the upstart attention, the 7-4 Gamecocks have quietly been one of the Group of Five's best teams.
Losing Rich Rodriguez was supposed to tank this team. Instead, Charles Kelly leaned into the unique makeup of this roster. He made it an efficient running attack behind quarterback Caden Creel (and formerly Gavin Wimsatt) and running back Cam Cook.
Since making the switch from Wimsatt to Creel, Jacksonville State is 5-1 and scoring 29.5 points per game – not to discredit the stark decline in quality of opponent as the Gamecocks entered CUSA play.
That one loss was a big one, though, and puts Jacksonville State's conference championship aspirations unnecessarily in harm's way.
The Gamecocks face-planted at FIU, 27-21, perhaps due to peeking ahead at the massive Western Kentucky matchup this weekend.
Jacksonville State out-gained FIU by 50 yards and rushed for 250, but turned the ball over multiple times in the fourth quarter to drop the game. SP+ lined FIU with a 44.8% postgame win expectancy, the sixth-lowest on the week.
Now, the Gamecocks are in a loser-leaves-town game against a hot Western Kentucky team that nearly knocked off LSU last week.
Like under Rodriguez, this roster is highly specialized.
Look no further than 6-foot-8 redshirt sophomore Deondre Johnson, who goes for nearly 30 yards per reception and has five touchdowns on 15 touches – three of which came from 50-plus yards out and all five from 25-plus yards out.
Cook looks to post his seventh consecutive 100-plus yard outing this weekend. His 1,437 rushing yards lead the country, and his 14 rushing touchdowns lead CUSA. Cook was a viable back at TCU against Big 12 defenses, and he's managed to dominate at the lower level.
It's even more impressive considering Jacksonville State lost a starting tackle and had to reshuffle up front. This isn't a dominant line with an all-everything player like Clay Webb. Left tackle was a turnstile until guard Cameron Griffin slid out and locked it down. He provided some stability to a weak spot on the line.
This is a team still capable of winning a conference title. Three of four remaining CUSA scenarios have Jacksonville State playing, but the Gamecocks would really rather host this game than not. To ensure a home conference championship game, Jax State has to win in Week 14.
Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State Pick, Betting Analysis
This game serves as a de facto Conference USA Championship semifinal. The winner clinches a spot in the league title game and could be one of two consecutive meetings, if:
- Western Kentucky beats Jacksonville State AND
- Liberty (+2.5) upsets Kennesaw State at home
It's not outlandish to think we could have a home-and-home series on our hands. If that scenario plays out, WKU would be the home team.
If WKU loses this game, there's no scenario in which the Toppers play in the CUSA Championship game.
If you're here over Ohio State–Michigan, Auburn-Alabama, or Texas-Texas A&M, it's probably because you're in the real thick of college football. So let's get into the weeds.
Western Kentucky's cornerback room doesn't feature anyone taller than six feet. Jacksonville State's run-oriented offense forces additional safety help in the box, increasing the number of one-on-one opportunities receivers have on the perimeter against corners.
That's where Johnson's stepped in lately.
If you reside in a state that offers college player props for this game, I'd consider betting over Johnson's receiving yards. (Note: do not bet anytime touchdown markets in college, they're a broken market with criminal theoretical holds.)
Nobody's been able to beat the Gamecocks in Jacksonville this season.
It was a spirited effort from Western Kentucky in Baton Rouge last week, but that recency bias is creeping into the line.
If the Hilltoppers got run out of Tiger Stadium by a more focused LSU team, we're probably not looking at them as a field-goal favorite here. That game shouldn't alter the team's assessment entirely.
I trust Jacksonville State to take care of business after stubbing its toe in Miami last weekend. Western Kentucky isn't sneaking up on anybody in CUSA, especially not after its close call with an SEC giant last week.
There are opportunities for rush explosives, and Cook should continue to cook.
This is also a buy-low on Jacksonville State and sell-high on Western Kentucky.
This is a case of the wrong team being favored, and I'm taking the points with the home team.
Pick: Jacksonville State +3 or better
Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State Betting Trends
