Wyoming vs Nevada Odds, Prediction, Pick: Over/Under Shows Betting Value (Saturday, Nov. 25)
Chris Gardner/Getty Images. Pictured: Head coach Craig Bohl and the Wyoming Cowboys.
Wyoming vs Nevada Odds
| Wyoming Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -115 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -105 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
Wyoming closes out its regular season with a road game against Nevada.
The Cowboys have been one of the best home teams in the country, going a perfect 6-0, but they have yet to win a game on the road. However, this is their best opportunity to end that road losing streak, as they're facing one of the worst teams in the Mountain West.
Meanwhile, Nevada is 2-9 and on a three-game losing streak.
This looks like a terrible matchup for the Wolfpack, but let's look at the Wyoming vs. Nevada odds before making a prediction and pick.
Wyoming is built to run the ball and control the line of scrimmage. However, the Cowboys haven't done a great job of that this season.
The Pokes rank 76th in Rushing Success Rate and 73rd in EPA/Rush. That has been the main problem in their road losses, especially because they run the ball 59.7% of the time.
Andrew Peasley hasn't been an effective passer. He's very good in play-action, which works well with Wyoming's rush-heavy offense, but he's been terrible in obvious passing situations. On non-play action attempts, Peasley is averaging 6.2 yards per attempt and has a 56.2% completion percentage with a -0.15 EPA/Pass, per Sports Info Solutions.
Wyoming's defensive metrics have been below average, as the Cowboys are outside the top 70 in both Passing and Rushing Success Rate Allowed. Additionally, the Cowboys are allowing 6.1 yards per play on the road compared to just 4.9 at home.
In this game, Wyoming is going to have to stop the run because Nevada runs the ball on 57% of its offensive plays. The Cowboys are lucky the Wolf Pack haven't been able to move the ball effectively because they struggle in that aspect, ranking 74th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 94th in Defensive Line Yards.
Nevada's offense has been a disaster. The Wolf Pack want to run the ball but haven't done it effectively, ranking 118th in Rushing Success Rate and 123rd in Offensive Line Yards.
The main problem is that quarterback Brendon Lewis is the team's leading rusher. He's been somewhat effective, averaging 4.3 yards per carry, but he has 25 fewer carries than lead back Sean Dollars.
When Lewis has been asked to throw, he hasn't been effective, as seen by his 47.7 PFF passing grade. Lewis is averaging only 5.6 yards per attempt and has just two passing touchdowns. Of the 155 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts, Lewis holds the third-worst EPA in college football.
Nevada's defense has been just as bad as its offense. The Wolf Pack are allowing 6.7 yards per play, which is the fourth-highest mark in college football.
They're going to have to stop the run in this game, which isn't something they've done successfully this season. Nevada is allowing 5.5 yards per carry and ranks outside the top 100 in both Rushing Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Rush Allowed.
However, Nevada hasn't been bad at defending its own territory, allowing just 3.8 points per scoring opportunity, which is good for 68th in the country. Other than that, there aren't many positives about this defense.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wyoming and Nevada match up statistically:
Wyoming Offense vs. Nevada Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 76 | 113 | |
| Line Yards | 59 | 104 | |
| Pass Success | 70 | 103 | |
| Havoc | 49 | 124 | |
| Finishing Drives | 59 | 68 | |
| Quality Drives | 58 | 122 |
Nevada Offense vs. Wyoming Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 118 | 74 | |
| Line Yards | 123 | 94 | |
| Pass Success | 127 | 95 | |
| Havoc | 133 | 50 | |
| Finishing Drives | 130 | 62 | |
| Quality Drives | 123 | 88 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 73 | 124 |
| PFF Coverage | 72 | 100 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 93 | 64 |
| Middle 8 | 69 | 77 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.8 (116) | 27.7 (84) |
| Rush Rate | 59.7% (26) | 57.0% (38) |
Wyoming vs Nevada
Betting Pick & Prediction
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I don't see how either of these offenses are going to move the ball effectively.
Wyoming has had a lot of great performances this season, including its 42-point showing against Hawaii last weekend. However, the Cowboys have been abysmal on the road, scoring more than 14 points just once in four games.
Nevada is one of the worst teams in the country on both sides of the ball, and I have a hard time seeing how it's going to move the ball against a Wyoming defense that has been elite against lower-tier competition.
If Wyoming gets a lead, it's going to slow the pace and run the ball over and over again, which will lead to a very low-scoring affair between two teams that already run the ball at a high rate.
I like the value on under 41.5 points in this Mountain West clash.
Pick: Under 41.5
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