2026 Midterm Election Predictions | Polymarket Combos for 7 Closest Senate Races (Midterm Elections 2026 Odds)

2026 midterm election predictions on Polymarket now go beyond single races, with Polymarket combos letting traders bundle the seven closest Senate races 2026 into one all-or-nothing position.

Below are five 7-leg combos, from the chalk map to two full sweeps to two split-map hybrids, and they make up just 5 of the 128 possible outcomes on Polymarket's Senate map.

Here is what each one would return on $100 before the midterm elections 2026 wrap up on Tuesday, November 3.

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How Polymarket Combos Work on the Midterm Elections 2026 Senate Map

A combo bundles two or more outcomes into a single YES position, and Polymarket's Build Your Map tool applies that idea to the seven closest Senate races of the midterm elections 2026: Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Ohio, Michigan, Maine and Iowa.

You pick a winner in each state, and the ticket shows one payout for the whole map.

Every leg has to land. A combo pays only if all seven picks are right, and a single miss settles the entire position at $0, with no credit for getting six of seven.

Polymarket prices combos through a request-for-quote system, where market makers compete to quote the full bundle, instead of simply multiplying the individual race prices together.

Why Polymarket Combos Price in Correlation

If the seven races were independent, the payouts would be enormous. Multiplying the seven leg prices on The Favorites gives roughly 4%, which would imply about a 25x payout, yet Polymarket quotes 7.22x.

The gap is wider on the sweeps. The same math puts the Republican Sweep near 0.1%, or roughly 900x, against an actual quote of 9.70x, and the Democratic Sweep at about 30x against a quote of 3.77x.

Polymarket is pricing the idea that these states move together. If the national environment shifts, polling misses tend to land in the same direction across several states, which makes a clean sweep far likelier than seven separate coin flips.

These calculations use the leg prices shown on the ticket, which add up to slightly more than 100% in every state, so treat them as approximations.

5 of 128: Where These Combos Sit on the Map

Two outcomes across seven races produce 128 possible maps, and these five combos are just 5 of them.

The sweeps sit at the edges of that grid, while the split maps in Combos 4 and 5 sit in the interior, where a single state breaks from the pack. That is why the payout jumps from 3.77x on the Democratic Sweep to 13.81x once Iowa goes Republican, and from 9.70x on the Republican Sweep to 94.35x once Texas and Michigan flip.

The sweeps carry the diminished returns because the market sees them as the most natural ways for a correlated map to break, and traders hunting for bigger payouts tend to find them in the variable outcomes. Whether that is real value depends on whether a split map is likelier than Polymarket's quote implies, and Combos 4 and 5, especially Combo 5, are long shots.

Polymarket Combos: Five Ways to Play the Senate Races 2026

Each of these Polymarket combos lists its seven picks state by state across the Senate races 2026, with the combined return on a $100 stake in the table below each one. Returns are total payouts, stake plus winnings, taken from Polymarket's trade ticket for each combo.

Combo 1: The Favorites

The Favorites takes whichever side Polymarket prices higher in each state: Democrats in Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Michigan and Maine, and Republicans in Kansas and Iowa.

It is the map Polymarket's own Build Your Map tool shows as a 52-48 Democratic Senate when every other race goes to the favorite.

• Texas: Talarico (D)
• Kansas: Marshall (R)
• Alaska: Peltola (D)
• Ohio: Brown (D)
• Michigan: El-Sayed (D)
• Maine: Jackson (D)
• Iowa: Hinson (R)

The two Republican legs have the thinnest margins on the ticket, with Marshall at 52% to Hamilton's 49% in Kansas and Hinson at 54% to Turek's 47% in Iowa, so they are the likeliest places for this combo to break.

At 7.22x, it pays more than the Democratic Sweep and less than the Republican Sweep. By Polymarket's quotes, a clean Democratic wave is likelier than this split map, even though every leg here is the favorite.

Combo 2: Democratic Sweep

The Democratic Sweep puts Democrats on all seven legs, which means Hamilton in Kansas and Turek in Iowa have to win in the two states where Polymarket still lists Republicans as the favorites.

• Texas: Talarico (D)
• Kansas: Hamilton (D)
• Alaska: Peltola (D)
• Ohio: Brown (D)
• Michigan: El-Sayed (D)
• Maine: Jackson (D)
• Iowa: Turek (D)

At 3.77x, it is the shortest payout of the five, even though two of its legs are underdog picks. That is correlation at work: if Democrats are strong enough to win Kansas and Iowa, the other five states are probably already in hand.

Combo 3: Republican Sweep

The Republican Sweep takes Paxton, Marshall, Sullivan, Husted, Rogers, Collins and Hinson, so Republicans have to win the five states where Polymarket lists Democrats as favorites, plus Kansas and Iowa.

• Texas: Paxton (R)
• Kansas: Marshall (R)
• Alaska: Sullivan (R)
• Ohio: Husted (R)
• Michigan: Rogers (R)
• Maine: Collins (R)
• Iowa: Hinson (R)

It returns $970.10 on $100, more than The Favorites and the Democratic Sweep but far less than the split maps below it.

It would take a broad polling miss in the GOP's favor, since Sabato's Crystal Ball has Alaska and Michigan leaning Democratic and the other five states in this group rated Toss-ups.

Combo 4: Democratic Sweep (Minus Iowa)

This build keeps Democrats on six legs and sends Iowa back to Hinson, a scenario that fits Sabato's Crystal Ball's view that her relatively strong campaign and Iowa's Republican lean could save her even if Democrat Rob Sand wins the governor's race.

• Texas: Talarico (D)
• Kansas: Hamilton (D)
• Alaska: Peltola (D)
• Ohio: Brown (D)
• Michigan: El-Sayed (D)
• Maine: Jackson (D)
• Iowa: Hinson (R)

Moving a single leg from the Democratic Sweep to Republican takes the payout from 3.77x to 13.81x, roughly 3.7 times larger.

It is the one split map here built around a coherent story, a strong Democratic night with Iowa as the lone holdout. It is still a long shot, though a far shorter one than Combo 5.

Combo 5: Republican Sweep (Minus Texas and Michigan)

The last build is the longest shot on the board: Republicans on five legs, with Talarico winning in Texas and El-Sayed winning in Michigan.

• Texas: Talarico (D)
• Kansas: Marshall (R)
• Alaska: Sullivan (R)
• Ohio: Husted (R)
• Michigan: El-Sayed (D)
• Maine: Collins (R)
• Iowa: Hinson (R)

It returns $9,435.71 on $100, or 94.35x, the biggest payout of the five by a wide margin. In this scenario Democrats flip Texas and hold Michigan while Republicans hold Kansas, Alaska, Ohio, Maine and Iowa, leaving Texas as the only Democratic pickup among the seven.

It also asks Polymarket's Alaska, Ohio and Maine favorites, all priced at 62% or better for Democrats, to lose. This is a long shot.

Senate Races 2026: The Seven States Driving 2026 Midterm Election Predictions

Control of the Senate in the 2026 midterm election predictions comes down to these seven states.

Sabato's Crystal Ball rates five of these Senate races 2026 as Toss-ups, with Alaska and Michigan at least leaning Democratic, and says Texas and Maine look like the likeliest majority-making seats.

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate, and Sabato notes that, assuming no other upsets, winning four of these seven states would put Democrats at 51 seats.

The prices below come straight from Polymarket's ticket and add up to slightly more than 100% in each state, so read them as approximate probabilities.

Texas Senate Race: Talarico (D) 69% vs Paxton (R) 32%

Polymarket makes Democrat James Talarico a clear favorite over Republican Ken Paxton, even though the polling has the race inside a few points.

Emerson College has Talarico up 48-46 and a University of Houston survey has him up two, while Fox News found a 49-49 tie and InsiderAdvantage had Paxton ahead 49-48. Libertarian Ted Brown is also on the ballot.

Sabato's Crystal Ball rates the race a Toss-up and says a Democratic win in Texas would take some believing after a drought of more than three decades for the party.

Kansas Senate Race: Hamilton (D) 49% vs Marshall (R) 52%

Kansas is the closest of the seven on Polymarket's board, with Republican Sen. Roger Marshall at 52% and Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Leawood pastor, at 49%.

The polling backs that up. RedBox Research had Marshall up 46-45 in a survey finished October 23, InsiderAdvantage had him up 48-47, Trafalgar had a 44-44 tie, and a New York Times/Siena poll had the two level at 45%. YouGov had Hamilton ahead 48-45, and a GBAO poll for Hamilton's campaign had him up five.

Cook Political Report moved the race to Toss-up on October 6. Sabato's Crystal Ball also has it as a Toss-up but says it struggles to picture a Democratic Senate win in a state the party has not carried since 1932.

Alaska Senate Race: Peltola (D) 69% vs Sullivan (R) 32%

Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is the Polymarket favorite over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, who is seeking a third term in a race decided by ranked-choice voting.

A New York Times/Siena survey had Peltola ahead 50-43, while Democratic-aligned Data for Progress and InsiderAdvantage each had her up about two points in the final round. Rasmussen had Sullivan up a point, and Sabato's Crystal Ball has rated the race Leans Democratic for several weeks.

A legal fight adds uncertainty. Another candidate on the ballot, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., shares the incumbent's name, and the Justice Department has filed suit to block certification of a Peltola win, citing the name overlap.

Ohio Senate Race: Brown (D) 68% vs Husted (R) 33%

Democrat Sherrod Brown is a 68% favorite against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, the appointee holding the seat JD Vance vacated, in a special election.

Brown leads most recent surveys. Marist had him up 48-44 among likely voters, Suffolk and USA Today had him up 47-44, and InsiderAdvantage showed the same 47-44 edge, while a small ActiVote survey had Husted ahead by less than a point.

Sabato's Crystal Ball still lists the race as a Toss-up but expects it will probably end up leaning Democratic. Marist also has Democrat Amy Acton leading the governor's race by seven, a tailwind for the top of the ticket.

Michigan Senate Race: El-Sayed (D) 71% vs Rogers (R) 30%

Michigan is Polymarket's strongest Democratic leg at 71%, and it is the only seat of the seven that Democrats are defending, with Sen. Gary Peters not seeking a third term.

Mitchell Research had Democrat Abdul El-Sayed up 51-44 on October 27, up from 45.6-41.4 in early October, and a Glengariff poll for the Detroit News and WDIV had him ahead 51.4% to 45.1%. Marist was closer at 50-48 among likely voters, and InsiderAdvantage had it 47-46.

Republican Mike Rogers, the former congressman who lost the 2024 Senate race, drew Donald Trump to a rally in Port Huron on October 25, and Republicans have not won a Senate race in Michigan since 1994.

Maine Senate Race: Jackson (D) 62% vs Collins (R) 39%

Democrat Troy Jackson is a 62% favorite over Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is seeking a sixth term, after Graham Platner withdrew from the race in July and Jackson was chosen at a nominating convention.

The polls are tight. Marist had Jackson up 49-47 among likely voters in an October 22-25 survey, Trafalgar had a 47-47 tie, Fox News had it 49-49, and the Washington Post had Jackson up 50-46 earlier in the month.

Collins has a history of outrunning her polls, and Maine uses ranked-choice voting. Sabato's Crystal Ball sees Maine and Texas as the likeliest majority-making races.

Iowa Senate Race: Turek (D) 47% vs Hinson (R) 54%

Iowa is the second-closest race on the board, with Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson at 54% and Democrat Josh Turek at 47% for the open seat created by Joni Ernst's retirement.

Polling is split. Marist had Turek ahead 48-45 among likely voters, Fox News had him up 49-47 in late September, and Suffolk had him up 48-44. Hinson led in Emerson (47-45), Trafalgar (46-44), InsiderAdvantage (47-45) and the Republican-aligned co/efficient (49-46).

Sabato's Crystal Ball calls Hinson the strongest Republican in these seven states aside from Collins and says the race may eventually lean Republican, even though Democrat Rob Sand holds an edge in the governor's race.

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Midterm Elections 2026 Polymarket Combos: Final Thoughts

Polymarket combos turn the seven closest Senate races 2026 into a map of correlated bets, where the sweeps pay the least and the split maps pay the most, and these five builds are just 5 of 128 possible outcomes.

With Sabato's Crystal Ball pointing to Maine and Texas as the likeliest majority-makers and Polymarket still leaning Republican in Kansas and Iowa, the final polls and early vote are the likeliest things to move the board before the midterm elections 2026 close on November 3.

2026 Midterm Election Predictions FAQs

What are Polymarket combos?

Polymarket combos bundle two or more outcomes into a single position that pays only if every leg wins. The Build Your Map tool applies the idea to the seven closest Senate races.

How many possible maps are there in the Polymarket Senate combo tool?

There are 128 possible maps, since each of the seven races has two outcomes. The five combos in this piece are just 5 of those 128.

Which Polymarket combo pays the most on the Senate races 2026?

The Republican Sweep (Minus Texas and Michigan) pays the most at 94.35x, which is $9,435.71 on a $100 stake. It is a long shot, since it needs Republicans to win Alaska, Ohio and Maine, where Democrats are favored, while Democrats win Texas and Michigan.

Which Polymarket combo pays the least?

The Democratic Sweep pays the least at 3.77x, or $377.93 on $100. Its returns are compressed because Polymarket treats the seven races as moving together.

Why do the sweeps pay less than the split combos?

Polymarket prices correlation into its combos, so a clean sweep is treated as one of the most natural ways for the map to break. Multiplying the leg prices on the Republican Sweep would imply roughly 900x, yet the quote is 9.70x.

Which Senate races 2026 are the closest?

The seven closest are Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Ohio, Michigan, Maine and Iowa. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas as Toss-ups, with Alaska and Michigan at least leaning Democratic.

What are the latest 2026 midterm election predictions for Senate control?

In the latest 2026 midterm election predictions, Sabato's Crystal Ball says Democrats hold a narrow edge, with Maine and Texas the likeliest majority-making races. Polymarket's map shows a 52-48 Democratic Senate if every other race goes to the favorite.

What happens if one leg of a Polymarket combo loses?

The entire combo settles at $0. A combo pays only when every leg resolves the way you picked it, so getting six of seven right earns nothing.

When are the midterm elections 2026?

The midterm elections 2026 are on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and every Senate combo on Polymarket settles on those results.

How do I trade Polymarket combos?

Sign up on Polymarket, fund your account, open the Midterms hub and choose Build Your Map. Pick a side in each of the seven races, enter your amount and accept the quote.