The Michigan Governor race and Michigan Senate race both lean Democratic on Polymarket and Kalshi five days before Election Day, with Benson at 94¢ on Polymarket and El-Sayed priced identically at 71¢ on both exchanges.
- Benson, James, El-Sayed and Rogers all have live contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi for the Michigan Governor election and the Senate race, and both exchanges also list a Governor-Senate combo board.
- The newest El Sayed vs Rogers polls run from a 1-point race to a 7-point El-Sayed lead, while the latest Benson vs James polls have her ahead by 7 to 12 points.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Michigan Governor race and Michigan Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms five days before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | John James | YES (8¢) | $1,250.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson | YES (93¢) | $107.53 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | John James | YES (7.6¢) | $1,315.79 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (71¢) | $140.85 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Mike Rogers | YES (30¢) | $333.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (71¢) | $140.85 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Mike Rogers | YES (30¢) | $333.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Michigan Governor Election and Michigan Senate Race Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Michigan contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both markets resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election, and Polymarket's own board tags the Governor race Safe D and the Senate race Lean D.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price. Treat them as approximations, since the pairing ignores any third-party candidates on the ballot.
Michigan Governor Race 2026
Polymarket has Benson at 94¢, a 94% implied chance, and the two newest polls both have her ahead by at least 6 points.
Jocelyn Benson (YES 94¢ / NO 8¢)
Benson is up from 92¢ earlier this week, and a Michigan State University survey released October 26 put her ahead 53.3% to 40.9% among likely voters. That is a 12-point lead, up from 9 points in the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research's August survey.
She also holds the advantage on television. The Republican Governors Association has pulled nearly all of its reserved ad time, which Glengariff Group pollster Richard Czuba called a signal of where the race stands, and an AdImpact analysis found Benson dominating the airwaves.
John James (YES 8¢ / NO 94¢)
James is at 8¢ in a state where no Republican has won a governor's race since 2014, and his biggest polling drag is the president he is tied to. Glengariff found 59% of respondents disapprove of Trump's job performance and 39% approve.
The Michigan GOP gave his campaign a $1.8 million in-kind contribution in October to narrow the ad gap, and James has said he is counting on press coverage, social media and word of mouth down the stretch.
Michigan Senate Race 2026
El-Sayed has climbed to 71¢ on Polymarket, and three polls released since Monday all had him ahead.
Abdul El-Sayed (YES 71¢ / NO 30¢)
El-Sayed is up from 66¢ earlier this week, a move that follows a Mitchell Research poll for CBS Detroit and other Michigan stations showing him ahead 51% to 44% among likely voters, up from a 4.2-point gap on October 1.
Independents now favor him 52% to 38%, and 28% of Mitchell's respondents said they had already voted or planned to vote absentee, up from 11% in early October. Michigan State's survey had a narrower 48% to 45.5% race, and Cook Political Report still rates the contest a Toss-Up.
Mike Rogers (YES 30¢ / NO 71¢)
Rogers at 30¢ is a price built on how close Michigan Senate races have been. He lost to Elissa Slotkin by about a third of a point in 2024, and Republicans haven't won a Michigan Senate race since 1994.
He has leaned on reinforcements, including a Monday rally in Linden with Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno, where he argued the race has become a national contest. Mitchell found he has consolidated 91% of Republicans against El-Sayed's 94% of Democrats and leads 62% to 35% among voters 65 and older, so his path runs through older-voter turnout.
Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and the Senate market has traded more than $15.1 million in volume, far deeper than the $688,124 on the Governor board.
Michigan Governor Race 2026
Kalshi sits a point behind Polymarket on Benson at 93¢, and its own margin forecast has the Democrat up 9.3 points.
Jocelyn Benson (YES 93¢ / NO 7.3¢, +0.4 pts)
Benson gained 0.4 points on Kalshi, where the 9.3-point margin forecast sits between the 7.4-point RealClearPolitics polling average and Michigan State's 12-point result.
The gap between those numbers is a reminder that a market price reflects the probability of a win, not the size of a poll lead.
John James (YES 7.6¢ / NO 93.1¢, -1 pts)
James lost a point, the largest move on Kalshi's Governor board, and his 7.6¢ price is 0.4¢ below Polymarket's.
Kalshi's chart still shows independent Mike Duggan at 0.3%, even though he ended his campaign on May 21, which is why this board isn't a pure head-to-head.
Michigan Senate Race 2026
Kalshi now matches Polymarket exactly on both Senate candidates, with a margin forecast of Democrat +2.9.
Abdul El-Sayed (YES 71¢ / NO 30¢, +2 pts)
El-Sayed gained 2 points on Kalshi, and the 2.9-point forecast sits between Decision Desk HQ's polling average, which has him ahead by less than 2 points, and the 7-point lead in Mitchell's poll.
Glengariff found him winning voters who disapprove of Trump by 83% to 12%, and the small group of undecided voters disapproves of the president 77% to 23%, a pool he is positioned to draw from in the final days.
Mike Rogers (YES 30¢ / NO 71¢, -2 pts)
Rogers lost 2 points on Kalshi and now trades at the same 30¢ as on Polymarket.
The polling floor under his price is real. Marist had the race at 50% to 48% among likely voters in mid-October, and InsiderAdvantage had it at 47% to 46%.
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Michigan Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Both exchanges let traders bet on how the two races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Democratic sweep is the favorite at 66¢ on Polymarket and 67¢ on Kalshi, a Benson win paired with a Rogers win is next at 24¢ and 25¢, and the two outcomes involving a James win trade at 10¢ or less. Polymarket labels each line by party while Kalshi names the candidates, but the four pairings are the same.
Kalshi's combo board has traded $90,463 in volume, and its YES and NO prices on each line add up to between $1.01 and $1.03, a spread that points to a thinner board than the single-race markets.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed win (Dem sweep) | YES 66¢ | NO 35¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson and Mike Rogers win (split ticket) | YES 24¢ | NO 77¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | John James and Mike Rogers win (GOP sweep) | YES 7¢ | NO 94¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | John James and Abdul El-Sayed win (split ticket) | YES 2¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed win (Dem sweep) | YES 67¢ | NO 34¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson and Mike Rogers win (split ticket) | YES 25¢ | NO 77¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | John James and Mike Rogers win (GOP sweep) | YES 10¢ | NO 93¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | John James and Abdul El-Sayed win (split ticket) | YES 2¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race
The two boards agree on every favorite and now match exactly in the Senate race. Benson sits at YES 94¢ on Polymarket and YES 93¢ on Kalshi, while El-Sayed is at YES 71¢ on both.
The underdogs tell the same story. James trades at YES 8¢ on Polymarket and YES 7.6¢ on Kalshi, and Rogers is at YES 30¢ on both.
That Senate convergence is new. Earlier this week Kalshi priced El-Sayed 3¢ above Polymarket, and Polymarket's move up to YES 71¢ closed the gap. The only single-race difference left is James's 0.4¢, which is small enough to read as noise rather than a signal.
The markets and the surveys are in step on the Governor race. Benson vs James polls show her ahead by 7 to 12 points in the latest releases, and neither board has her below YES 93¢.
El Sayed vs Rogers polls are less tidy, running from InsiderAdvantage's 1-point race to Mitchell's 7-point lead, and both markets price El-Sayed at YES 71¢.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is in depth and contract design: Kalshi's Senate board has traded more than $15.1 million, its Governor board still carries Duggan on its chart, and Polymarket's combo board uses party labels where Kalshi names the candidates.
Michigan Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The Michigan Governor election barely moved on Kalshi, with Benson up 0.4 points and James down 1, while the Senate board is where the repricing happened, with El-Sayed up 2 and Rogers down 2.
Both exchanges now have El-Sayed at 71¢. The move follows three polls released since Monday that all had him ahead, including Mitchell's 7-point lead and Michigan State's 2.5-point edge, which keeps the El Sayed vs Rogers polls tilted his way even as the margins vary.
The backdrop for the Michigan Governor election favors Benson. The RealClearPolitics average has her up 7.4 points, Michigan State has her up 12, and the Republican Governors Association's ad pullback suggests even her opponents' allies see the race as a long shot.
The Senate race is where the caution lives. Cook Political Report still calls it a Toss-Up, InsiderAdvantage had it at 47% to 46%, and Rogers leads 62% to 35% among voters 65 and older in Mitchell's poll, so a heavy older turnout is his clearest route back into the race.
The combo boards add one more read. Polymarket's two El-Sayed pairings add up to 68¢ and Kalshi's add up to 69¢, a few cents below his 71¢ Senate price, while Kalshi's two Rogers pairings add up to 35¢, 5¢ above his 30¢ standalone price. Kalshi's combo chances also show the Benson and Rogers split ticket gaining 3 points as the Democratic sweep slipped 2, a divergence worth discounting given how thin that market is.
Turnout is the other variable. As of October 27, 1,392,170 Michigan voters had cast ballots, or 18.8% of active registered voters, including more than 215,000 at early voting sites. Mail ballot requests stood at 2,154,870, about 13% above the same point in 2022, though returns were only about 4% ahead.
With five days left, the final round of Benson vs James polls and El Sayed vs Rogers polls, plus the weekend early voting totals, are the likeliest triggers for a repricing. Statewide early voting runs through Sunday, November 1, some communities add hours on Monday, November 2, and mail ballots must reach clerks by 8 p.m. on Election Day.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | John James | YES (8¢) | $1,250.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson | YES (93¢) | $107.53 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | John James | YES (7.6¢) | $1,315.79 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (71¢) | $140.85 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Mike Rogers | YES (30¢) | $333.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (71¢) | $140.85 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Mike Rogers | YES (30¢) | $333.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This is a Michigan Governor race the market treats as nearly settled, with Benson at 93¢ to 94¢, and a Michigan Senate race where both exchanges have converged at 71¢ for El-Sayed even though the polls span 1 to 7 points.
Watch the weekend early voting totals and any last-minute polls for the clearest read on the final stretch. A Democratic sweep at 66¢ to 67¢ is the dominant outcome on both combo boards, and the final round of polling is the most likely thing to move that number before November 3.
Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Michigan Governor race odds?
Jocelyn Benson is trading at 94¢ on Polymarket and 93¢ on Kalshi, while John James sits at 8¢ on Polymarket and 7.6¢ on Kalshi.
Who is favored to win the Michigan Senate race?
Abdul El-Sayed is the favorite at 71¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with Mike Rogers priced at 30¢ on both exchanges.
What do the latest Benson vs James polls show?
A Michigan State University survey released October 26 has Benson ahead 53.3% to 40.9% among likely voters, and a Glengariff Group poll for The Detroit News and WDIV has her up 51.4% to 44.5%. The RealClearPolitics average has her ahead by 7.4 points.
What do the latest El Sayed vs Rogers polls show?
Mitchell Research has El-Sayed ahead 51% to 44%, Glengariff has him up 51.4% to 45.1%, Michigan State has him ahead 48% to 45.5%, and InsiderAdvantage had a 47% to 46% race.
How do Benson vs James polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets and the polls are in step. Recent surveys have Benson ahead by 7 to 12 points, and both exchanges price her at 93¢ or 94¢ with James at 8¢ or less.
Are El Sayed vs Rogers polls moving before Election Day?
The newest surveys mostly favor El-Sayed. Mitchell's lead grew from 4.2 points on October 1 to 7 points on October 26 and 27, while Michigan State shows a narrower 2.5-point edge, and both exchanges now price him at 71¢.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Michigan races slightly differently?
The boards are within a cent on the Governor race and match at 71¢ for El-Sayed, with James at 8¢ on Polymarket and 7.6¢ on Kalshi the only remaining gap. Small differences like that usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
What do the Michigan Governor-Senate combo bets show?
A Benson and El-Sayed sweep trades at 66¢ on Polymarket and 67¢ on Kalshi, a Benson and Rogers split at 24¢ and 25¢, a James and Rogers sweep at 7¢ and 10¢, and a James and El-Sayed split at 2¢ on both.
When does early voting end for the Michigan Governor election?
Statewide early voting runs through Sunday, November 1, and some communities add Monday, November 2 hours. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, and as of October 27, 1,392,170 Michigan voters had already cast ballots.
How do I trade the Michigan Governor race and Michigan Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
