2026 Midterm Election Predictions | Polymarket Combos for 7 Senate Races on Election Day (Midterm Elections 2026 Live Odds)

Election Day is here, and 2026 midterm election predictions on Polymarket let traders bundle the seven closest Senate races 2026 into a single all-or-nothing position with Polymarket combos.

Below are five 7-leg combos, two full sweeps and three split maps, and they make up just 5 of the 128 possible outcomes on Polymarket's Senate map.

Here is what each one returns on $100 on Tuesday, November 3, with the 2026 midterm elections underway and Democrats now priced as the favorite in all seven states.

Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current 2026 midterm election predictions on Polymarket, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code.

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How Polymarket Combos Work on the Midterm Elections 2026 Senate Map

Polymarket's Build Your Map tool turns the seven closest Senate races in the 2026 midterms into a single combo. You pick a side in Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, and Iowa, and the ticket quotes one price for the whole map.

All seven legs have to win. If even one race goes the other way, the combo settles at $0, with no payout for the six you got right.

That also means the slowest race sets the clock. A combo settles only after all seven legs resolve, and both Alaska and Maine use ranked-choice voting, so a close count in either state could hold up every combo on this page.

Polymarket prices combos through a request-for-quote system, where market makers compete to quote the full bundle rather than multiplying the individual race prices.

Why Polymarket Combos Price in Correlation

Multiply the seven-leg prices on the Democratic Sweep, and you get roughly 7%, which would imply a payout near 13x, yet Polymarket quotes 2.81x.

The gap is far wider on the Republican Sweep. Independent math puts it near 0.03%, or more than 3,500x, against an actual quote of 19.53x.

Polymarket is pricing the chance that polling misses hit several states at once. These races are not independent coin flips, because a national swing on Election Day would tend to move Texas, Ohio, and Maine together.

These calculations use the leg prices on the ticket, which add up to slightly more than 100% in every state, so treat them as approximations.

5 of 128: Where These Combos Sit on the Map

Seven races with two outcomes each produce 128 possible maps, and these five combos are just 5 of them.

With Democrats now favored in all seven states, the Democratic Sweep is the chalk map and the shortest return on the board at 2.81x. Flip Iowa to Republican and the payout climbs to 7.60x, and hold Kansas for Republicans as well and it reaches 14.90x.

That is the trade-off with the sweeps: the one that matches the favorites pays the least, and every split map pays more. Within each side, breaking from the sweep multiplies the return by about 2.7 times when Iowa flips and by more than 9 times when Texas and Michigan flip against the Republican Sweep.

Whether that is real value depends on whether a split map is likelier than Polymarket's quote implies, and Combos 4 and 5, especially Combo 5, are long shots.

Polymarket Combos: Five Ways to Play the Senate Races 2026 on Election Day

Each of these Polymarket combos lists its seven picks across the 2026 Senate races in the bullets, with the combined return on a $100 stake in the table below. Returns are total payouts (stake plus winnings), taken from Polymarket's trade tickets on Election Day.

Combo 1: Democratic Sweep (Minus Kansas and Iowa)

This build gives Democrats Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Michigan, and Maine, and leaves Kansas and Iowa with Republicans Marshall and Hinson.

It paid $722.29 on October 29 and now pays $1,490.31 because Polymarket's Kansas and Iowa legs have swung toward Democrats.

• Texas: Talarico (D)
• Kansas: Marshall (R)
• Alaska: Peltola (D)
• Ohio: Brown (D)
• Michigan: El-Sayed (D)
• Maine: Jackson (D)
• Iowa: Hinson (R)

The two Republican legs are most likely to break in this combo. Marshall has slid from 52% to 38% since October 29, and Hinson from 54% to 48%.

At 14.90x, it pays more than the Democratic Sweep and its Iowa variant but less than the Republican Sweep.

Combo 2: Democratic Sweep

The Democratic Sweep puts Democrats on all seven legs, and every one of them is now the favorite on Polymarket, with Iowa at 54% the thinnest.

• Texas: Talarico (D)
• Kansas: Hamilton (D)
• Alaska: Peltola (D)
• Ohio: Brown (D)
• Michigan: El-Sayed (D)
• Maine: Jackson (D)
• Iowa: Turek (D)

At 2.81x, it is the shortest payout of the five, down from 3.77x on October 29. That is correlation at work: if Democrats carry Iowa and Kansas, the other five states are probably already in hand.

Combo 3: Republican Sweep

The Republican Sweep takes Paxton, Marshall, Sullivan, Husted, Rogers, Collins, and Hinson, so Republicans have to win all seven races, including six where Polymarket now has Democrats at 64% or better.

• Texas: Paxton (R)
• Kansas: Marshall (R)
• Alaska: Sullivan (R)
• Ohio: Husted (R)
• Michigan: Rogers (R)
• Maine: Collins (R)
• Iowa: Hinson (R)

It returns $1,953.95 on $100, up from $970.10 on October 29, as every Republican leg lost ground. Iowa is the only one of the seven that Sabato's Crystal Ball still leans Republican in its final ratings.

The best argument for this build is the final New York Times/Siena finding that late deciders in these races are breaking toward Republicans by 9 points.

Combo 4: Democratic Sweep (Minus Iowa)

This build keeps Democrats on six legs and Hinson in Iowa, the one race that Sabato's Crystal Ball still leans Republican in its final ratings.

• Texas: Talarico (D)
• Kansas: Hamilton (D)
• Alaska: Peltola (D)
• Ohio: Brown (D)
• Michigan: El-Sayed (D)
• Maine: Jackson (D)
• Iowa: Hinson (R)

It returns $760.16 on $100, about 2.7 times the Democratic Sweep for flipping a single leg. The final New York Times/Siena poll had Turek up one, while co/efficient and GrayHouse had Hinson up two.

It is the split map with the clearest story, a strong Democratic night with Iowa as the lone holdout. It is still a long shot, though a far shorter one than Combo 5.

Combo 5: Republican Sweep (Minus Texas and Michigan)

The last build is the longest shot on the board: Talarico wins in Texas and El-Sayed wins in Michigan, while Republicans hold the other five seats.

• Texas: Talarico (D)
• Kansas: Marshall (R)
• Alaska: Sullivan (R)
• Ohio: Husted (R)
• Michigan: El-Sayed (D)
• Maine: Collins (R)
• Iowa: Hinson (R)

It returns $17,882.34 on $100, or 178.82x, up from 94.35x on October 29. Democrats would flip Texas and hold Michigan while Republicans hold Kansas, Alaska, Ohio, Maine and Iowa, leaving Texas as the only Democratic pickup among the seven.

It asks Republicans to win five states where Polymarket now has Democrats at 54% or better, with Michigan's El-Sayed the biggest favorite on the board at 80%. This is a long shot.

Senate Races 2026: The Seven States Behind 2026 Midterm Election Predictions

On Election Day, the 2026 midterm election predictions for Senate control run through these seven states.

Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Texas, Kansas, Maine and Ohio to Leans Democratic in its final Senate races 2026 ratings, alongside Alaska and Michigan, leaving Iowa as the only one of the seven that still leans Republican.

Cook Political Report still lists Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas as Toss-ups, with Michigan at Lean Democratic in its final update.

The final New York Times/Siena polls have Democrats ahead in all seven, but Siena found late deciders breaking toward Republicans, and Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority.

The prices below come straight from Polymarket's trade tickets and add up to slightly more than 100% in each state, so read them as approximate probabilities.

Texas Senate Race: Talarico (D) 73% vs Paxton (R) 29%

Polymarket has Democrat James Talarico at 73% against Republican Ken Paxton at 29%, up from 69% and 32% on October 29.

The final New York Times/Siena poll had Talarico ahead 50-43, and Atlas Intel had him up six, a bigger cushion than the tie Fox News found in the third week of October. Libertarian Ted Brown is also on the ballot.

Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Texas to Leans Democratic in its final ratings, while Cook still calls it a Toss-up. Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, and Sabato has named Texas and Maine as the likeliest majority-making seats.

Kansas Senate Race: Hamilton (D) 64% vs Marshall (R) 38%

Kansas has swung hardest on Polymarket's board, with Democrat Adam Hamilton at 64% and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall at 38%, compared with 49% and 52% on October 29.

The final New York Times/Siena poll had Hamilton up 49-44, and a Washington Post survey had him up about 10, though the paper questioned its own result because Republicans responded at much lower rates than Democrats.

Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Kansas to Leans Democratic in its final ratings after saying earlier that it struggled to picture a Democratic win there, and Cook has it as a Toss-up. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932.

Alaska Senate Race: Peltola (D) 70% vs Sullivan (R) 31%

Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 70% to 31% in a race decided by ranked-choice voting.

The final New York Times/Siena poll had Peltola ahead 48-46, but it was mostly completed before the Times reported that operatives aligned with her campaign helped recruit Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., the second Sullivan on the ballot. Peltola and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee deny it, and a federal investigation is underway.

A federal judge dismissed a Justice Department suit over certification on Sunday, and the department said it would appeal, while Sullivan has said he will accept the result. Alaska's Republican governor has ordered an investigation and suggested he may not certify a Peltola win.

Sabato's Crystal Ball rates the race Leans Democratic, and Cook calls it a Toss-up.

Ohio Senate Race: Brown (D) 72% vs Husted (R) 29%

Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted 72% to 29%, up from 68% and 33% on October 29, in the special election for the seat JD Vance vacated.

The final New York Times/Siena poll put Brown ahead 49-44, matching earlier surveys from Marist (48-44) and Suffolk (47-44).

Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Ohio to Leans Democratic in its final ratings, while Cook still lists it as a Toss-up.

Michigan Senate Race: El-Sayed (D) 80% vs Rogers (R) 21%

Michigan is Polymarket's biggest favorite on the board, with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 80% against Republican Mike Rogers at 21%, up from 71% and 30% on October 29.

The final New York Times/Siena poll had El-Sayed up 53-42, and YouGov had him up four. Cook moved the race to Lean Democratic in its final update, and Sabato's Crystal Ball has leaned it Democratic for weeks.

A late twist came Sunday, when Rep. Haley Stevens, El-Sayed's primary rival, endorsed Rogers and drew sharp criticism from fellow Democrats. Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate race by fewer than 20,000 votes, has held it up as a sign of cross-party momentum, and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer reaffirmed his support for El-Sayed.

Maine Senate Race: Jackson (D) 73% vs Collins (R) 28%

Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Sen. Susan Collins 73% to 28%, up from 62% and 39% on October 29.

The final New York Times/Siena poll had Jackson ahead 51-45, a bigger lead than the ties in Fox News and Trafalgar surveys in late October.

Collins has a history of outrunning her polls, and Maine uses ranked-choice voting. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Maine to Leans Democratic in its final ratings, while Cook still calls it a Toss-up.

Iowa Senate Race: Turek (D) 54% vs Hinson (R) 48%

Iowa is the closest race on the board, with Democrat Josh Turek at 54% against Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson at 48%, a reversal from October 29, when Hinson led at 54%.

The final New York Times/Siena poll had Turek ahead 48-47, and YouGov had him up one, while GrayHouse and co/efficient had Hinson up two.

Iowa is the only one of the seven that Sabato's Crystal Ball still leans Republican in its final ratings, and Cook calls it a Toss-up.

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Midterm Elections 2026 Polymarket Combos: Final Thoughts

Polymarket has Democrats favored in all seven Senate races 2026 on Election Day, yet Polymarket combos still pay anywhere from 2.81x on a full Democratic sweep to 178.82x on the longest shot, and these five builds are just 5 of 128 possible maps.

With late deciders breaking toward Republicans and Iowa the only race Sabato's Crystal Ball still leans red, the counts in Iowa and Alaska are the likeliest things to decide how these combos settle once the midterm elections 2026 results come in.

2026 Midterm Election Predictions FAQs

What are Polymarket combos?

Polymarket combos bundle two or more outcomes into a single position that pays only if every leg wins. The Build Your Map tool applies the idea to the seven closest Senate races.

How many possible maps are there in the Polymarket Senate combo tool?

There are 128 possible maps, since each of the seven races has two outcomes. The five combos in this piece are just 5 of those 128.

Which Polymarket combo pays the most on Election Day?

The Republican Sweep (Minus Texas and Michigan) pays the most at 178.82x, which is $17,882.34 on a $100 stake. It is a long shot, since it needs Democrats to win Texas and Michigan while Republicans hold the other five seats.

Which Polymarket combo pays the least, and why?

The Democratic Sweep pays the least at 2.81x, or $281.20 on $100. Polymarket now has Democrats favored in all seven races and treats the races as moving together.

How have Polymarket combo returns changed since October 29?

The Democratic Sweep fell from $377.93 to $281.20 as the 2026 midterm election predictions moved toward Democrats, while the Republican Sweep rose from $970.10 to $1,953.95. The Republican Sweep (Minus Texas and Michigan) rose from $9,435.71 to $17,882.34.

Which Senate races 2026 are the closest on Election Day?

Iowa is the closest on Polymarket's board, and the final New York Times and Siena polls show Iowa and Alaska within two points. Sabato's Crystal Ball leans Iowa Republican and the other six races Democratic.

What are the latest 2026 midterm election predictions for Senate control?

Sabato's Crystal Ball has 53 seats at least leaning Democratic in its final ratings, while Cook Political Report still lists six of the seven races as Toss-ups. Siena says a Senate majority for either party remains possible.

What happens if one leg of a Polymarket combo loses?

The entire combo settles at $0. A combo pays only when every leg resolves the way you picked it, so getting six of seven right earns nothing.

When are the midterm elections 2026?

The midterm elections 2026 are today, Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and every Senate combo on Polymarket settles on those results.

How do I trade Polymarket combos?

Sign up on Polymarket, fund your account, open the Midterms hub and choose Build Your Map. Pick a side in each of the seven races, enter your amount and accept the quote.