New traders who sign up in under three minutes get $55 in bonuses after a $25 trade with Kalshi promo code ACTION55. Use it for Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi election betting on the nationally watched prediction market race today, James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton, as Texas polls stay open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. CT.
Ken Paxton beat Sen. John Cornyn in the May runoff after Trump endorsed him. James Talarico won the Democratic primary, and no Democrat has won a Texas Senate race since 1988.
Our Texas Senate race page, Kalshi review, and politics hub cover it, and your $55 bonus funds a front-row seat to midterm betting on one of the tightest Texas Senate races in decades.
Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi: Promo Code ACTION55 Overview for Texas Senate Traders
| Kalshi Promo Code | Kalshi Promo Code ACTION55 |
|---|---|
| Kalshi Welcome Offer | Trade $25, Get $55 |
| US Midterm Race | Texas Senate Race |
| Polls Open in TX | 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. CT today |
| Prices with Kalshi | Talarico 73¢, Paxton 29¢ |
| Current Rating | 9.5/10 ActionTrust Rating (Kalshi) |
Follow midterm betting odds in our midterm elections tracker, see Kalshi's Senate, House, and governor odds, compare model predictions with prediction markets vs. polls, or learn how to trade the 2026 midterm elections.
Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi Odds: Who Is Going to Win the Texas Senate Race?
In the Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi market, 73¢ means a 73% implied chance. Talarico slipped 3 points to 73% this morning while Paxton rose 3 to 27%, and the live chart has held nearly flat since 8 a.m.
| Candidate | Yes Price | Latest Move |
|---|---|---|
| James Talarico (D) | 73¢ | Down 3 |
| Ken Paxton (R) | 29¢ | Up 3 |
In James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton, Texas faces a Republican streak. The last five Senate races:
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Ted Cruz (R) | R+8.5 |
| 2020 | John Cornyn (R) | R+9.6 |
| 2018 | Ted Cruz (R) | R+2.6 |
| 2014 | John Cornyn (R) | R+27.2 |
| 2012 | Ted Cruz (R) | R+16 |
Final polls missed both ways. The 2018 polling average had Cruz up about 7 and he won by 2.6, while 2024 averages had him up 3 to 5 and he won by 8.5. See how accurate prediction markets are.
Final polls range from Paxton +1 to Talarico +7, and averages put Talarico up roughly 2 to 4 points. His vote share runs 47% to 51% and Paxton's 43% to 49%.
Cost of living tops the issue lists. Voters who call it extremely important back Talarico by 19 points, while Paxton keeps the edge on immigration.
The 73¢ price matches a modest polling lead, but Texas polls missed by about 4 points both ways, and Paxton's path runs through Election Day turnout. Claim Kalshi promo code ACTION55 to turn a $25 trade into $55 in bonuses, and find more in our Texas betting hub. Prefer another operator? See the Polymarket midterms offer.
What Is Happening in the Texas Senate Race?
Paxton's record shapes the final stretch. Texas House Republicans impeached him in 2023, the Texas Senate acquitted him, and Talarico hammers him on corruption. Trump rallied for Paxton in Lubbock on Oct. 27 and campaigned virtually this final weekend, and the two nominees never debated.
Talarico leads with Black, Hispanic, young, and college-educated voters and independents, plus blue counties such as Bexar. Paxton leads with men, voters 55 and older, and suburban and rural Texans.
More than 7 million Texans voted early, and voters with Democratic primary histories cast more ballots than Republicans. Talarico warns that many Republicans vote today, and Paxton scrapped his Alamo finale for a bar rally north of San Antonio.
How Do You Redeem the Kalshi Promo Code ACTION55?
New traders claim Kalshi promo code ACTION55 in four steps:
- Use one of our Kalshi sign-up links.
- Create your Kalshi account.
- Enter ACTION55 when sign-up asks for a code.
- Trade $25 to activate the Kalshi promo code bonus, then trade Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi by buying a Yes share on Talarico or Paxton.
I ran the steps myself: three minutes from tap to first trade on my phone, starting with a Yes share on Talarico. A friend's Kalshi referral code belongs to a separate refer-a-friend program, and ACTION55 covers the welcome offer.
When Do Texas Polls Open, Close and Report Results?
- Polls open today: 7 a.m. (Texas Secretary of State).
- Polls close tonight: 7 p.m. local time, with most of Texas on Central Time (Texas Secretary of State).
- Results: Kalshi's market page shows live votes counted and a "Race called?" tracker (Kalshi market page).
See our where to vote today guide for polling locations and ballot issues.
Claim the Kalshi promo code ACTION55 before polls close, then check out our last-minute race markets for more election betting.
Texas Senate Race and Kalshi Promo Code – FAQs
What is the Kalshi promo code?
The Kalshi promo code ACTION55 gives new users Trade $25, Get $55. The terms below list the limits.
How do Kalshi prices work for new traders?
Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi odds appear as prices from 1¢ to 99¢, and each equals an implied chance. A 73¢ Yes share on Talarico pays $1 if he wins, so the buyer keeps 27¢ before fees, and pays $0 if he loses.
How does the Kalshi referral code work?
The Kalshi referral code comes from Kalshi's refer-a-friend program, which rewards the friend who shares a link and the new user who joins. New traders without a friend's link use ACTION55.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
