The Alaska Senate race 2026 polls said toss-up, and the live midterm results are now tilting toward Mary Peltola, who leads Dan Sullivan by about 4,250 first-choice votes after Tuesday's 25,000-ballot batch while Polymarket and Kalshi price her at 99¢ and 98.9¢.
Her lead is now larger than the 4,027 votes cast for the second Dan Sullivan, which undercuts the push to hand that candidate's votes to the senator.
The price leaves almost no profit on the favorite, with a $100 Peltola ticket returning exactly $100.00 on Polymarket, so the Peltola vs Sullivan polls will be settled by Friday's count and the November 18 ranked-choice tabulation.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Alaska Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both exchanges as Alaska counts its remaining ballots.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Mary Peltola | YES (99¢) | $100.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Dan Sullivan | YES (2¢) | $4,574.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Democratic Party (Peltola) | YES (98.9¢) | $101.03 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Republican Party (Sullivan) | YES (1.1¢) | $8,501.81 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Right now, you can use the Polymarket promo code ACTION and you'll be able to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!
Polymarket Alaska Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's event contracts are priced from 1¢ to 99¢, which maps directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share pays $1.00 if that candidate wins the Alaska Senate election and $0 if not.
The market is titled Alaska Senate Election Winner, and unless one candidate tops 50% of first-choice votes, the race cannot be formally decided until the ranked-choice tabulation scheduled for November 18.
A methodology note: Polymarket's trade tickets only show each candidate's own odds, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against the opponent's quoted Yes price. Alaska's ballot also carries other candidates and ranked-choice tabulation, so those No prices are approximations rather than exact quotes.
Mary Peltola (YES 99¢ / NO 2¢, flat)
The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board has Peltola at 99¢, implying a 99% chance, and a $100 ticket returns just $100.00, which means there is no profit left in backing her at this price.
Polymarket's tracker shows her ahead 118,926 votes (48.9%) to 114,676 (47.2%) with 79% counted, a lead of about 4,250, while the Associated Press estimates about 84% of the vote is in.
Tuesday's batch of about 25,000 ballots added roughly 12,600 votes for Peltola and 10,900 for Sullivan, enough to widen her lead by about 1,700 and keep her price at 99¢.
Dan Sullivan (YES 2¢ / NO 99¢, down under 1 pt)
Sullivan is priced at 2¢, a 2% chance, and a $100 ticket would win $4,574.00.
His campaign had argued that the late early votes and absentee ballots would favor him and that ranked-choice tabulation favors him, but Tuesday's batch of those same ballots moved the margin the other way.
Ranked-choice rounds begin November 18 with the elimination of Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., and early ballot data suggest his voters lean Peltola as a second choice, while supporters of Republican Gerald Heikes lean toward the senator.
Kalshi Alaska Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the race as "Alaska Senate winner?" and resolves by winning party, with Yes and No both tradable, so the board shows the full spread instead of a single implied number.
Kalshi's tracker shows 84.3% of votes counted with the Democrat ahead 118,926 to 114,676, and volume has reached $44,913,914, up from $41.7 million on Tuesday.
Kalshi's rules govern exactly when the market settles, since Alaska's tabulation runs to November 18 and certification is targeted for November 25.
Democratic Party, Mary Peltola (YES 98.9¢ / NO 1.2¢, +0.9 pts)
Kalshi has the Democratic contract at 98.9¢, a 98.9% chance, with the displayed chance at 98.8% and up 0.9, and a $100 ticket pays $101.03.
That $1.03 is the only profit on a Peltola Yes across the two exchanges, since the same ticket on Polymarket returns nothing beyond the stake.
Peltola's campaign manager, Cheryl Bruce, said the numbers are clear that Peltola will be elected once every vote is counted, and reporting notes that ballots counted since Election Day have favored Peltola because many come from rural areas where she is strong.
Republican Party, Dan Sullivan (YES 1.1¢ / NO 99¢, -0.9 pts)
The Republican contract costs 1.1¢ for Yes on the ticket, though the board reads 1¢ with a displayed chance of 1.2%, down 0.9, and a $100 ticket pays $8,501.81.
The legal fight is now over data. Peltola's campaign has sued Alaska for the names of rejected absentee voters, the Sullivan campaign moved Monday to intervene, and the state Department of Law says the suit seeks daily records before they are final.
The Justice Department's challenge over the second Sullivan was tied to a margin smaller than that candidate's vote total, and with Peltola's 4,250-vote lead now above his 4,027 votes, reporting says that argument would not apply under the current count.
Similarly to Polymarket, you can sign up with the Kalshi promo code to claim a trading bonus.
Enter Kalshi promo code ACTION55 when signing up and you'll be able to Trade $25, Get $55!
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare as the Peltola vs Sullivan Polls Give Way to a 4,250-Vote Lead
The two boards price Peltola almost identically. She sits at YES 99¢ on Polymarket and the Democratic Party at YES 98.9¢ on Kalshi, while Sullivan is at YES 2¢ and the Republican Party at YES 1.1¢.
The payouts are where they diverge. A $100 ticket on Peltola returns $100.00 on Polymarket, which is no profit at all, while the same ticket returns $101.03 on Kalshi.
The long shot shows a bigger gap. A $100 ticket on Sullivan returns $8,501.81 on Kalshi against $4,574.00 on Polymarket, about 86% more, because Kalshi's YES 1.1¢ is nearly a full cent cheaper than Polymarket's YES 2¢.
The movement figures are small. Polymarket shows Sullivan down by less than a point and Peltola flat, while Kalshi's displayed chance is up 0.9 for the Democrat and down 0.9 for the Republican.
The trackers also disagree on how much is counted, with Polymarket at 79% and Kalshi at 84.3%, in line with the Associated Press estimate of about 84%, even though both show the same 118,926 to 114,676 vote totals.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 Polls and Live Midterm Results: Market Price Influencers
Tuesday's batch was the biggest update in days, and it nudged prices up rather than moving them. Peltola's lead grew from 2,517 votes to about 4,250 on roughly 25,000 new ballots, and Polymarket's Peltola price rose a cent to 99¢ while Kalshi's climbed to 98.9¢.
The Alaska Senate race 2026 polls had Peltola up two to three points on first-choice votes, and the live midterm results now have her up about 1.7, just under the low end of that range. She won about half of Tuesday's new ballots, well below the roughly 68% her campaign claimed for Monday's small batch, but still enough to widen the gap.
The bigger shift is what the lead now exceeds. Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. has 4,027 votes (1.7%) and Heikes has 5,318 (2.2%), so Peltola would still be ahead even if all of Sullivan Jr.'s votes were added to the senator's total.
Ranked-choice rounds, if needed, start November 18 with Sullivan Jr.'s elimination, and his voters lean Peltola on early ballot data. Heikes's supporters lean toward the senator, which is why the Sullivan campaign has argued that ranked-choice tabulation favors him.
The Associated Press estimates about 84% of the vote is counted, and tens of thousands of early and absentee ballots remain. The next update is expected Friday, November 13, with the last ballots due November 18 and certification targeted for November 25.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Mary Peltola | YES (99¢) | $100.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Dan Sullivan | YES (2¢) | $4,574.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Democratic Party (Peltola) | YES (98.9¢) | $101.03 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Republican Party (Sullivan) | YES (1.1¢) | $8,501.81 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Alaska Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 Polls and Midterm Results: Final Thoughts
This is a 4,250-vote race priced like a done deal, with Peltola's lead now larger than the entire vote for the second Dan Sullivan. The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board leaves no profit on the favorite at 99¢, so Kalshi's 98.9¢ price is the only place a Peltola Yes still returns anything.
Friday's update is the likeliest trigger for a repricing, since it is the next real test for the Peltola vs Sullivan polls, and the November 18 tabulation can settle it.
Alaska Senate Race FAQs
What do the latest Alaska Senate race 2026 polls show?
The final Alaska Senate race 2026 polls had Peltola up about 2 to 3 points on first-choice votes, including a 48-46 New York Times/Siena survey. After Tuesday's batch the count has her up about 1.7 points, 48.9% to 47.2%, on Polymarket's tracker.
How do the Peltola vs Sullivan polls compare with the actual count?
The Peltola vs Sullivan polls pointed to a small Peltola edge, and the count has landed just under the low end of that range with a lead of about 4,250 first-choice votes. Friday's update will show whether the remaining ballots keep that gap intact.
What does the Polymarket Alaska Senate Race market show right now?
The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board has Mary Peltola at 99¢ and Dan Sullivan at 2¢. Polymarket's tracker shows Peltola ahead 118,926 to 114,676 with 79% counted, a lead of about 4,250 votes.
Where can I follow live midterm results for the Alaska Senate race?
The Alaska Division of Elections posts the unofficial count, and both Polymarket and Kalshi carry live trackers on their Alaska Senate boards. For live midterm results here, remember that every update before November 18 shows first-choice votes only.
What changed in Tuesday's Alaska Senate count?
The Division of Elections added about 25,000 ballots, pushing the total past 245,000, and Peltola's lead grew from 2,517 votes to about 4,250. The Associated Press estimates about 84% of the vote is now counted.
Can you make money betting on Peltola on Polymarket?
Not at the current price. A $100 Peltola ticket on Polymarket returns $100.00, which is the stake back with no profit, while the same bet on Kalshi's Democratic Party contract pays $101.03.
Does the second Dan Sullivan's vote total still matter?
Peltola's lead of about 4,250 votes is now larger than the 4,027 first-choice votes for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., so she would still lead even if all of them were added to the senator's total. That undercuts the push to hand those votes to Sullivan.
When will the Alaska midterm results be final?
The next update is Friday, November 13, with the last ballots counted and ranked-choice tabulation on Wednesday, November 18, and certification targeted for November 25. Until then, the midterm results are first-choice votes only.
How do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on the Alaska Senate race?
Polymarket lists the two candidates by name, while Kalshi resolves by winning party. Peltola is priced almost identically at 99¢ and 98.9¢, but Kalshi pays $8,501.81 on a $100 Sullivan ticket against $4,574.00 on Polymarket.
How do I trade the Alaska Senate race on Polymarket or Kalshi?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the side you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market before the race is decided.
