The Mississippi Senate race 2026 is still uncalled on Wednesday, but Democrat Scott Colom's lead has grown to 2,990 votes on the Associated Press count and he now trades at 99.7¢ on Kalshi.
Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls favored Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, yet the midterm results have moved prices so far that Polymarket no longer lets traders select Colom's contract, leaving Hyde-Smith at 1¢ there and 0.5¢ on Kalshi.
Hinds County, a Democratic stronghold, is expected to upload its outstanding affidavit ballots today, and the count should be close to complete by Friday's certification deadline.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Mississippi Senate race 2026 odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms as the race nears its final count.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (1¢) | $9,140.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Scott Colom | YES (99.7¢) | $100.27 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (0.5¢) | $18,696.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Right now, you can use the Polymarket promo code ACTION and you'll be able to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket quotes its Mississippi contracts in cents from 1¢ to 99¢, and the market resolves on the winner of the Mississippi Senate election, with a plurality enough to win and no runoff.
Polymarket no longer lets traders select Colom's contract, and the board shows a dash where his price used to be, even though the chart still reads 99%. That leaves Hyde-Smith's contract as the only live one on the board.
A methodology note: with no Yes price quoted for Colom, the No price below is based on the 99% reading on Polymarket's chart rather than a quoted figure, so treat it as an approximation.
Cindy Hyde-Smith (YES 1¢ / NO 99¢, -1 pt)
Hyde-Smith is down to 1¢, a 1% implied chance and a point below Tuesday, with the board's multiplier at 100.0x and a $100 Yes ticket showing $9,140.00 to win.
Polymarket's tracker shows Colom ahead 470,266 to 467,183 (49.1% to 48.8%) with 95% counted, a margin of just over 3,000 votes.
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi's board resolves by winning party, with Yes and No both tradable on each candidate, and of the two boards here it is the only one that still lets traders buy Colom.
Volume has reached $42.6 million, up about $1.7 million since Tuesday, and the feed shows 97.8% of the vote counted with Colom at 470,074 (49.1%) and Hyde-Smith at 467,084 (48.8%), a margin of 2,990 that is 454 votes wider than Tuesday's 2,536.
Scott Colom (YES 99.7¢ / NO 0.6¢, +0.9 pts)
Kalshi has Colom at 99.7¢, and its Chance reading of 99.5% is up 0.9 points on the day.
A $100 stake shows a max payout of $100.27, so backing the favorite now returns just 27¢.
Cindy Hyde-Smith (YES 0.5¢ / NO 99.7¢, -0.9 pts)
Hyde-Smith is at 0.5¢ with a Chance reading of 0.5%, and a $100 stake shows a max payout of $18,696.00.
That is roughly double Polymarket's $9,140.00, a gap of about $9,560, because Kalshi's quote is half of Polymarket's 1¢.
Similarly to Polymarket, you can sign up with the Kalshi promo code to claim a trading bonus.
Enter Kalshi promo code ACTION55 when signing up and you'll be able to Trade $25, Get $55!
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Mississippi Senate Race 2026
The favorite can only be compared loosely now. Kalshi quotes Colom at YES 99.7¢, while Polymarket shows no price and a chart reading of 99%.
The longshot still compares cleanly, with Hyde-Smith at YES 1¢ on Polymarket and YES 0.5¢ on Kalshi, which is why the $100 payouts are $9,140.00 and $18,696.00.
On Kalshi, the two Yes prices add up to 100.2¢, and its quoted NO 0.6¢ on Colom and NO 99.7¢ on Hyde-Smith show a tight book at the extremes.
The tallies still differ slightly, with Polymarket's tracker showing a lead of just over 3,000 votes and Kalshi's feed showing 2,990. There is no combo board on either exchange for this race.
Colom vs Hyde-Smith Polls and Midterm Results Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls are ancient history, and the board is trading the count. The Associated Press margin went from 2,574 on Monday to 2,604 on Tuesday afternoon and 2,990 late Tuesday night, and the midterm results have given Hyde-Smith nothing resembling a comeback in the unofficial totals.
Hinds County is the last big variable. It received more than 8,000 affidavit ballots, an attorney for the county said it was expected to upload the results Wednesday, and Colom, who has won roughly 80% of the vote there, has said the lead will be insurmountable once those ballots are in.
Rejections are trimming the pool. WLBT reported that about 24% of affidavit ballots have been rejected statewide, including some in Hinds County for voting at the wrong precinct, being registered in another county or not being registered.
Hyde-Smith spoke on camera on Tuesday for the first time since election night, returned to work in Washington, said thousands of votes remain in question and said she is confident, while also reflecting on a campaign she said was run hard. Colom said she should accept the will of the voters but that he is prepared to litigate.
Any legal path is unclear. Mississippi has no recount law, and state law does not clearly spell out a process for challenging a general election result for a state office.
The national stakes are modest but real. Democrats have already flipped seven Republican-held seats for at least 54 in the Senate, with Mississippi and Alaska still uncalled, and a Vanderbilt political scientist told Newsweek he expects the race to be called by Friday.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (1¢) | $9,140.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Scott Colom | YES (99.7¢) | $100.27 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (0.5¢) | $18,696.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Mississippi Senate Race 2026 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 and Midterm Results: Final Thoughts
Nobody reading the Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls two weeks ago would have priced the Mississippi Senate race 2026 as a 99.7¢ lock, yet Polymarket has pulled Colom's contract and Hyde-Smith is a half-cent longshot on Kalshi.
Hinds County's affidavit upload, Friday's county certification deadline and any court challenge are the last catalysts, and a call or concession in the final midterm results would make Colom the eighth Democratic Senate flip of the cycle.
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 FAQs
What are the current Mississippi Senate race 2026 odds?
Scott Colom is trading at 99.7¢ on Kalshi, while Cindy Hyde-Smith sits at 1¢ on Polymarket and 0.5¢ on Kalshi. Polymarket no longer lets users select Colom's contract.
Has the Mississippi Senate race 2026 been called?
No. As of Wednesday, November 11, no winner had been declared, with Colom ahead 470,074 to 467,084 on the Associated Press count shown on Kalshi, a margin of 2,990 votes, and by just over 3,000 votes on Polymarket's tracker.
What did the Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls show before Election Day?
The polls had Hyde-Smith ahead by three to four points, including a 52-48 Wedgewood Polls survey and a 43-40 Change Research poll for the Democratic-aligned 365 Project, and the major raters called the race Likely Republican.
How do the midterm results compare with the Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls?
The midterm results are far ahead of the polling for Colom, who trailed in the final surveys but has led the count for more than a week, which is why Hyde-Smith's YES price has fallen from 17¢ last Wednesday to 1¢ on Polymarket and 0.5¢ on Kalshi.
Why can't I select Scott Colom on Polymarket?
As of Wednesday, Polymarket's board shows no price for Colom and does not let users select his contract, even though its chart still reads 99%. Kalshi continues to quote him at 99.7¢.
What ballots are left to count in Mississippi?
Hinds County, a Democratic stronghold, was expected to upload the results of its outstanding affidavit ballots on Wednesday, and counties must submit certified results by Friday, November 13. Statewide, about 24% of affidavit ballots have been rejected.
Is there a recount in the Mississippi Senate race?
Mississippi has no recount law, and state law does not clearly spell out a process for challenging a general election result for a state office, so any dispute would likely end up in court. There is also no runoff, because the top vote-getter wins.
How do I trade the Mississippi Senate race 2026 odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before the race is called.
