The Alaska Senate race 2026 polls called it a coin flip, and ten days after Election Day the live midterm results still have no call from AP.
As of November 13 at 9:09 a.m. ET, AP's count shows Mary Peltola with 125,157 votes (49.2%) and Dan Sullivan with 119,357 (47.0%) with an estimated 88% of votes counted, and those numbers may have changed since.
The Peltola vs Sullivan polls never put much distance between the two, and with a count due Friday, Kalshi has the Democrat at 99.6¢ while Polymarket has no Peltola Yes to sell.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Alaska Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here are the live prices on both exchanges, with Polymarket's Peltola Yes still greyed out.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Dan Sullivan | YES (1¢) | $9,140.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Democratic Party (Peltola) | YES (99.6¢) | $100.37 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Republican Party (Sullivan) | YES (0.5¢) | $16,069.31 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Polymarket Alaska Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's contracts are priced from 1¢ to 99¢, which maps directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins the Alaska Senate election and $0 if not.
The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race market is titled Alaska Senate Election Winner, and its tracker lists 83% of the vote as counted, with Peltola at 125,157 votes (49.1%) and Sullivan at 119,357 (46.8%).
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, and with no Peltola Yes on the board there is no opposing price to pair with Sullivan, so no derived No price appears for either candidate this round.
Mary Peltola (YES unavailable)
The Polymarket Alaska Senate race board still lists Peltola but no longer lets traders buy her Yes: the button is greyed out, a dash sits where the price should be, and the chart's last reading for her is 99%.
The page gives no reason, so none is offered here, and with no price there is no Peltola row for Polymarket in the pick tables.
The tracker describes her as leading by 5.8K votes, a gap that moves with each Division of Elections update.
Dan Sullivan (YES 1¢ / NO not quoted)
Sullivan is the only candidate Polymarket still prices, at 1¢, a 1% implied probability, and a $100 ticket shows $9,140.00 to win.
His route runs through ranked-choice tabulation, since the Anchorage Daily News reports that neither candidate has reached the 50% needed to be declared the winner on first choices.
FairVote's analysis of preliminary ballot data, reported by The Hill, found 43% of voters who ranked Gerald Heikes first preferred the incumbent in the final round, against 17% for Peltola.
Kalshi Alaska Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the race as "Alaska Senate winner?" and resolves by winning party, with Yes and No both tradable on each side, so the board shows the full spread instead of one implied number.
Kalshi's tracker lists 88.2% of votes counted, with the Democratic party at 125,157 votes and the Republican party at 119,357, and volume on the market has reached $55,129,729.
Settlement follows Kalshi's rules on winning party, and Alaska's ranked-choice tabulation is set for November 18, with certification targeted for November 25.
Democratic Party, Mary Peltola (YES 99.6¢ / NO 0.5¢, +0.2 pts)
Kalshi has the Democratic contract at 99.6¢, with the displayed chance at 99.5% and up 0.2, and a $100 ticket shows a max payout of $100.37.
That payout leaves almost nothing above the stake, and Kalshi is the only exchange still selling a Peltola Yes.
The Anchorage Daily News reported that about 5,000 more ballots were counted Thursday, leaving Peltola at 49.1% of first-choice votes to Sullivan's 46.8%, and that her campaign had declared victory a day earlier even though AP has not called the race.
Republican Party, Dan Sullivan (YES 0.5¢ / NO 99.6¢, -0.2 pts)
The Republican contract costs 0.5¢ for Yes, matching a displayed chance of 0.5% that is down 0.2, and a $100 ticket shows a 1% chance and a $16,069.31 max payout.
There is a legal backdrop to Sullivan's side too. ICT reported that a federal judge dismissed the Justice Department's pre-election suit to block certification if he lost, and that the department has appealed.
Alaska Beacon's partial analysis of the preliminary ranked-choice data had Peltola ahead in a final-round matchup as well.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare as the Peltola vs Sullivan Polls Meet the Count
The two boards only overlap on the underdog. Sullivan is at YES 1¢ on Polymarket and the Republican Party is at YES 0.5¢ on Kalshi, while Peltola's side is quoted only on Kalshi, at YES 99.6¢.
Kalshi's Democratic book is tight, with YES 99.6¢ and NO 0.5¢ adding up to 100.1¢.
The long shot pays more on Kalshi. A $100 Sullivan ticket shows $16,069.31 there against $9,140.00 on Polymarket.
Polymarket shows no movement figure for either candidate, while Kalshi's displayed chance is up 0.2 for the Democrat and down 0.2 for the Republican.
The trackers also sit at different points in the count, with Polymarket at 83% and Kalshi at 88.2%, and AP's estimate as of November 13 at 9:09 a.m. ET is 88%.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 Polls and Live Midterm Results: Market Price Influencers
The market itself is the first story. Kalshi has the Democrat at 99.6¢ and the Republican at 0.5¢, Polymarket won't sell a Peltola Yes, and the live midterm results are being priced at the extremes while the race stays uncalled.
The Alaska Senate race 2026 polls were never unanimous. Alaska Survey Research had Peltola up 47% to 45% in early October and Public Policy Polling had her up 48% to 47% in mid-October, while Trafalgar Group had Sullivan up 47% to 46% in late September and co/efficient had him up 48% to 46% in mid-September.
The same Alaska Survey Research poll had Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. at 5% and Heikes at 3% on first choices, and AP's count has them at 1.7% and 2.2%.
Ranked-choice transfers are the live question, since neither candidate has cleared 50% of first-choice votes. FairVote's preliminary analysis found the second Sullivan's voters split 34% for Peltola and 23% for the senator in the final round, while Heikes voters leaned the other way.
The Anchorage Daily News reported that preliminary ballot data indicates Peltola would remain ahead after tabulation, though those second-choice figures will move as more ballots are counted.
Friday's count is the next test for the Peltola vs Sullivan polls, and November 18 is both the last day for ballots to arrive and the date of ranked-choice tabulation. Certification is targeted for November 25.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Dan Sullivan | YES (1¢) | $9,140.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Democratic Party (Peltola) | YES (99.6¢) | $100.37 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Republican Party (Sullivan) | YES (0.5¢) | $16,069.31 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Alaska Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Peltola vs Sullivan Polls and Midterm Results: Final Thoughts
This is a lopsided board with a lopsided payout. A $100 Sullivan ticket shows $16,069.31 on Kalshi and $9,140.00 on Polymarket, while Peltola's side pays $100.37 on Kalshi and isn't offered on Polymarket.
AP has not called the race, so Friday's count and the November 18 tabulation are the next checkpoints for the midterm results.
Alaska Senate Race FAQs
What do the latest Alaska Senate race 2026 polls show?
The Alaska Senate race 2026 polls split by pollster. Alaska Survey Research had Peltola up 47% to 45% in early October, Public Policy Polling had her up 48% to 47% in mid-October, and Trafalgar Group had Sullivan up 47% to 46% in late September.
What do the latest Peltola vs Sullivan polls show compared with the count?
The Peltola vs Sullivan polls had the two candidates within a few points of each other. AP's count as of November 13 at 9:09 a.m. ET shows Peltola at 49.2% and Dan Sullivan at 47.0%, with an estimated 88% of votes counted.
What does the Polymarket Alaska Senate Race market show right now?
The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board no longer lets traders buy a Peltola Yes, with the button greyed out, and Dan Sullivan is priced at 1¢. Polymarket's tracker shows 83% counted, with Peltola at 125,157 votes and Sullivan at 119,357.
Why can't I buy Peltola Yes on Polymarket?
The Peltola Yes button on Polymarket is greyed out and shows a dash in place of a price, and the page does not give a reason. Kalshi still quotes both sides, with the Democratic Party at 99.6¢.
Where can I follow live midterm results for the Alaska Senate race?
The Alaska Division of Elections posts the unofficial count, and the Polymarket and Kalshi boards both carry trackers. For live midterm results, a count is scheduled for Friday, and every update before the November 18 tabulation shows first-choice votes only.
What did AP's count show for the Alaska Senate race?
As of November 13 at 9:09 a.m. ET, AP's count shows Mary Peltola with 125,157 votes, Dan Sullivan with 119,357, Gerald Heikes with 5,490 and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. with 4,199, with an estimated 88% of votes counted. AP has not called the race and the count is not finished.
How does ranked-choice voting work in the Alaska Senate race?
If no candidate tops 50% of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated and those ballots move to each voter's next choice until two remain. FairVote's analysis of preliminary data found Heikes voters leaned toward the incumbent and the second Sullivan's voters leaned toward Peltola.
When will the Alaska midterm results be final?
November 18 is the last day for ballots to arrive and the date of ranked-choice tabulation, and certification is targeted for November 25. Until then, the midterm results are unofficial first-choice counts.
How do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on the Alaska Senate race?
Polymarket lists the candidates by name and no longer sells a Peltola Yes, while Kalshi resolves by winning party and quotes both sides. Sullivan is at 1¢ on Polymarket and the Republican Party is at 0.5¢ on Kalshi.
How do I trade the Alaska Senate race on Polymarket or Kalshi?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on a side that has a quoted price, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market before the race is decided.
