The Buffalo Bills close out the preseason at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night, and Polymarket's board is treating it like a real football game.
Buffalo enters 2-0 and coming off a 31-7 blowout win in Cleveland, while Pittsburgh sits 1-1 heading into its own preseason finale.
Neither Josh Allen nor Aaron Rodgers is expected to play, so most of tonight's pricing is really a bet on backups, roster-bubble players, and which staff gets more out of its depth chart.
We've got three Editor's Picks on the board tonight, along with the current Polymarket promo code: ACTION, which allows new users to Deposit $10, Get a $20 Trading Bonus!
Best Moneyline Pick Today – Buffalo (Editor's Pick)
Buffalo is priced at 60¢ on the moneyline board, implying a 60% win probability against Pittsburgh's 41¢.
We're taking Buffalo here tonight.
The Bills are 2-0 and just hung 31 points on Cleveland, and while their true starters won't play, McDermott's staff has generally gotten sharper depth-chart execution than Pittsburgh's roster bubble has shown through two preseason games.
Pittsburgh's own storyline this week has centered on its backup quarterback battle rather than its starters, which tends to show up as sloppier execution in a finale like this one.
Home field for the first true test at the new Highmark Stadium adds a little more juice to Buffalo's side of this, even in an exhibition setting.
Our ticket shows a $100 buy on Buffalo at a 60¢ average price, which lines up with the board's listed price with no real slippage on an order this size.
That works out to roughly 167 shares purchased (Amount ÷ Avg Price), and Polymarket's own stated return of $162.76 confirms the exact fractional pricing across the order book.
- If Buffalo wins: the shares pay out $1 each, for a total return of $162.76 and a profit of $62.76 on the $100 stake.
- If Pittsburgh wins: the $100 stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
It's a modest 1.63x payout multiple, reflecting Buffalo's status as the clear favorite rather than a longshot swing.
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Best Margin of Victory Pick Today – Buffalo by 1-6 (Editor's Pick)
The exact margin of victory board prices "Buffalo by 1-6" at 20%, the single most popular Buffalo margin band on the sheet.
This is the pick we like best of the three tonight.
With both Allen and Rodgers on the sideline, a laugher in either direction feels less likely than a game that stays within a score, especially once backups settle into a rhythm in the second half.
Buffalo's higher floor as the more complete roster gives it the edge to win a tighter, lower-event game rather than blow the doors off it.
Our ticket shows a $20 buy on "Buffalo by 1-6" at a 20.41¢ average price, a touch above the board's 20¢ line since even a small order nudges a thinner market like this one.
That's roughly 98 shares purchased (Amount ÷ Avg Price), and the platform's stated return of $93.54 reflects that slightly higher execution price.
- If Buffalo wins by 1 to 6 points: the shares pay out $1 each, for a total return of $93.54 and a profit of $73.54 on the $20 stake.
- If the final margin lands anywhere else, including a Buffalo blowout or a Pittsburgh win: the $20 stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
At a roughly 4.7x payout multiple, this is the highest-variance of our three picks tonight, and it should be sized like the longshot it is.
Best Team Total Offensive Yards Pick Today – Buffalo Over 350.5 (Editor's Pick)
Buffalo's over on 350.5 total offensive yards currently sits at 49% on the board.
We're buying that over tonight.
Buffalo's 31-7 output in Cleveland came with backups mixed in for a full half, and that same offensive staff should get extended reps again tonight to finalize the roster.
Pittsburgh's defense, meanwhile, is still sorting out several depth spots behind its starters, which tends to open up yardage against a offense that already knows its plan.
Our ticket shows a $100 buy at a 55.97¢ average price, notably higher than the board's 49% Yes price, which tells us this specific order moved a comparatively thin yardage market.
That's roughly 179 shares purchased (Amount ÷ Avg Price), and Polymarket's stated return of $174.60 reflects that higher execution cost.
- If Buffalo clears 350.5 total offensive yards: the shares pay out $1 each, for a total return of $174.60 and a profit of $74.60 on the $100 stake.
- If Buffalo falls short of that number: the $100 stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Paying up above the board price for this one means the breakeven is tighter than the listed 49% would suggest, so it's worth watching the live number before you follow.
Bills vs Steelers Odds: Polymarket Money Line Contracts for the NFL Preseason Finale
Moneyline contracts here resolve simply: buy the side you think wins, and each share pays $1 if that team wins the game outright, with no spread attached.
Preseason finales carry extra noise since neither team is expected to play its real starters, so this line is really pricing coaching decisions and backup execution rather than talent gaps.
Pittsburgh (41%, Yes 41¢)
Pittsburgh's price reflects a roster still working out its backup quarterback pecking order, which has been the dominant storyline of its preseason.
Buffalo (60%, Yes 60¢)
Buffalo's favorite status ties back to a cleaner preseason so far and the fact that its coaching staff has generally gotten more out of its depth pieces, the same read that made Buffalo our Editor's Pick on this market above.
Bills vs Steelers Prediction: Spread and Total Picks
Buffalo to Win by Over 2.5 Points (Yes 54%)
A 2.5-point spread is a small number for a game where both true starters are sitting, and it lines up with a modest, backup-driven margin rather than a blowout.
Over 34.5 Total Points (Yes 51%)
34.5 is a low preseason-finale number, consistent with backups on both sidelines and coaching staffs prioritizing clean execution over scoring.
Bills vs Steelers Team Totals: Full Game, 1st Half and 2nd Half
Team totals break the same over/under question down by team and by half, and they're a cleaner read on which offense is expected to move the ball more tonight.
Pittsburgh Over 17.5 Full Game Points (Yes 49%)
Pittsburgh's full-game number sits near a coin flip, reflecting real uncertainty about how much its backup offense will be trusted to operate.
Buffalo Over 18.5 Full Game Points (Yes 56%)
Buffalo's higher number and higher Yes price both track with its offense already looking sharper this preseason.
Pittsburgh Over 10.5 1st Half Points (Yes 48%)
Pittsburgh's first-half number is where its starting-adjacent group gets its clearest look before the deeper reserves take over.
Buffalo Over 10.5 1st Half Points (Yes 52%)
Buffalo carries a slight scoring edge into the first half as well, consistent with its moneyline and spread pricing.
Pittsburgh Over 10.5 2nd Half Points (Yes 49%)
Pittsburgh's second-half price barely moves from its first-half number, suggesting the board expects a fairly even split of scoring across the two halves.
Buffalo Over 10.5 2nd Half Points (Yes 52%)
Buffalo's second-half price matching its first-half price points to a steady, rather than streaky, expected scoring pace from its reserves.
Bills vs Steelers Half and Quarter Winners
These markets ask which team scores more in a given half or quarter, with a separate contract for a tie in that window.
Some contracts on this board only have one side actively priced, so a few of the entries below reflect only the priced side.
1st Half Winner: Buffalo (59%) over Pittsburgh (41%), Tie (9%)
Buffalo's first-half edge fits a script where its higher-continuity offense gets out ahead before the deepest reserves take the field.
2nd Half Winner: Buffalo (55%) over Pittsburgh (53%), Tie (8%)
The second half tightens up considerably, which makes sense once both benches are fully cleared out and the talent gap narrows.
1st Quarter Winner: Buffalo (42%) over Pittsburgh (36%), Tie (29%)
A near-30% tie price in the opening quarter is a strong signal of a cautious, feel-it-out start from both coaching staffs.
2nd Quarter Winner: Buffalo (46%), Pittsburgh (46%), Tie (20%)
A dead-even split here suggests the board sees the second quarter as the most balanced window of the night.
3rd Quarter Winner: Buffalo (48%) over Pittsburgh (42%), Tie (21%)
Buffalo's edge returns in the third quarter, which typically features each team's second wave of backups getting extended run.
4th Quarter Winner: Buffalo (46%) over Pittsburgh (42%), Tie (15%)
The lower tie price in the fourth suggests the board expects the deepest roster-bubble players to separate more clearly late.
Exact Margin of Victory: Best NFL Bets Today on the Final Score
This board breaks the final margin into bands for each team, plus a straight tie, and it's where our margin-of-victory Editor's Pick above lives.
- Pittsburgh by 25+ (14%): the least likely blowout band on the sheet, needing a near-total collapse from Buffalo's roster.
- Pittsburgh by 19-24 (12%): still a wide margin, and one that would require Pittsburgh's reserves to clearly outplay Buffalo's.
- Pittsburgh by 13-18 (6%): the lowest-priced band on the entire sheet, an odd gap between the bands on either side of it.
- Pittsburgh by 7-12 (12%): a plausible Pittsburgh path if its backup execution cleans up from its first two preseason games.
- Pittsburgh by 1-6 (18%): the board's second-most popular Pittsburgh band, fitting a close, low-event finale.
- Tie (9%): ties are rare but not negligible in a game where both staffs are prioritizing clean reps over chasing points.
- Buffalo by 1-6 (20%): the single most popular band on the board and our Editor's Pick, reflecting Buffalo's edge in a tight, backup-driven game.
- Buffalo by 7-13 (14%): a step up in margin that still fits Buffalo's moneyline favoritism.
- Buffalo by 14-20 (12%): a more comfortable Buffalo win, roughly in line with its full-game total edge.
- Buffalo by 21+ (13%): a genuine blowout band, priced similarly to the tighter Buffalo bands despite the wider swing in outcomes it covers.
Team Touchdowns, Two-Point Conversions and Offensive Yards
This group rounds out the scoring-shape markets, including our team total offensive yards Editor's Pick above.
Pittsburgh Over 2.5 Team Touchdowns (Yes 44%)
Sitting under a coin flip, this number fits a Pittsburgh offense that's still finding its footing behind its top options.
Buffalo Over 2.5 Team Touchdowns (Yes 49%)
Buffalo's number sits closer to even money, in line with its status as the more polished offense of the two tonight.
Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown? (Yes 34%)
A one-third shot at any non-offensive score reflects the sloppier ball security and coverage units typical of preseason football.
Successful Two-Point Conversion? (Yes 37%)
Coaches tend to go for two more liberally in preseason to test the play in a low-stakes setting, which helps explain a price above what you'd see in the regular season.
Pittsburgh Over 350.5 Total Offensive Yards (Yes 43%)
Pittsburgh's yardage number trails Buffalo's, another data point pointing at Buffalo's cleaner offensive execution so far this preseason.
Buffalo Over 350.5 Total Offensive Yards (Yes 49%)
This is the same market as our Editor's Pick above, and the board's current 49% sits below the 55.97¢ average price our ticket actually paid, a gap worth watching if you're following the trade live.
Bills vs Steelers Price Analysis: What's Moving the Best NFL Bets Today
The clearest theme across this entire board is a Buffalo team getting priced like a real favorite in a game neither Josh Allen nor Aaron Rodgers will play.
That's less about star power and more about which coaching staff has looked sharper running its backups through two preseason games apiece.
The near-30% tie price in the first quarter and the roughly even second-quarter split both point to the market pricing a slow, feel-it-out start before separation shows up later in the game.
You can dig deeper into how these prices are built in Action Network's prediction markets coverage, which tracks this kind of preseason pricing across the league.
The offensive yards market stands out as the one with the most in-ticket slippage tonight, a reminder that even modest order sizes can move thinner prop markets more than the main lines.
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Bills vs Steelers Prediction: Final Thoughts
This is a preseason finale being priced with real structure, which makes it a fun board to trade even without either team's starting quarterback on the field.
Buffalo's edge across the moneyline, spread, and yardage markets all tells a consistent story about a team that's simply looked cleaner through its first two preseason games.
For a deeper primer on how these contracts differ from a traditional sportsbook bet, Action Network's beginner's guide to Polymarket is a good next stop, and the full library of prediction market apps is worth a look if you want to compare platforms.
Bills vs Steelers Prediction FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $20 trading bonus for new users.
Who is favored in Bills vs Steelers?
Buffalo is favored on the Polymarket moneyline at 60%, with Pittsburgh priced at 41%.
Will Josh Allen or Aaron Rodgers play in this game?
Neither starting quarterback is expected to play in this preseason finale, which is a major reason the market is pricing backups and roster-bubble players so heavily.
What is Action Network's top Editor's Pick for this game?
The featured Editor's Pick is Buffalo by 1-6 on the exact margin of victory board, priced at 20% and reflecting a close, backup-driven finish.
What is the total points line for Bills vs Steelers?
The full-game total sits at 34.5 points, with the over priced at 51%.
How do Polymarket contracts work?
Each contract resolves at $1 if the outcome hits and $0 if it doesn't, so the price you pay per share reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome.
When does this market resolve?
These contracts resolve once the game is played to completion on Thursday night at Highmark Stadium.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code ACTION?
New users can enter the promo code ACTION when signing up on Polymarket to unlock a $20 trading bonus toward their first positions.
