Horror Movie Night brings a double elimination to Dancing with the Stars on Tuesday, Oct. 27, and the prediction markets already have a view on who is in danger. Kalshi traders are pricing Jackson Olson and Tyler Cameron as the likeliest couples to go home, while Polymarket's far thinner board is harder to read. Dedication Night's judges' scores and viewer votes carry over, so tonight's dances are the last piece of a two-week puzzle.
Who's Already Left the Ballroom: Season 35 Elimination Recap
Six couples have been eliminated so far, and no one went home on Dedication Night. Ten couples remain heading into the double elimination.
- Conner Leavitt & Adele Zaikman: eliminated on premiere Night 1.
- Sarah Jane Nader & Hailey Bills: eliminated on premiere Night 2.
- Giada De Laurentiis & Alan Bersten: eliminated Sept. 22.
- Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart: eliminated Sept. 29.
- Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong: eliminated Oct. 6.
- Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson: eliminated Oct. 13 on Super Bowl Night.
DWTS Week 7 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi event contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢, and the price is the market's implied probability. A "Yes" contract on a couple pays $1 if that couple is eliminated Tuesday. Because two couples are going home, the Yes prices across the board add up to roughly 200%, and the market has already topped $6.39 million in volume.
| 🪩 Couple | 🎯 Eliminated Yes | Price | 💰 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Olson & Emma Slater | Jackson Olson | Eliminated Yes (64¢) | $56.25 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess | Tyler Cameron | Eliminated Yes (59¢) | $69.49 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik | Tatyana Ali | Eliminated Yes (31¢) | $222.58 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold | Connor Wood | Eliminated Yes (20¢) | $400.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa | Julia Stiles | Eliminated Yes (6¢) | $1,566.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy | Jenna Dewan | Eliminated Yes (5¢) | $1,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas | Maura Higgins | Eliminated Yes (5¢) | $1,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson | Harry Shum Jr. | Eliminated Yes (4¢) | $2,400.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov | Amber Glenn | Eliminated Yes (1¢) | $9,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach | Ezra Frech | Eliminated Yes (1¢) | $9,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Jackson Olson & Emma Slater (64%, Yes 64¢ / No 39¢, -7 pts)
Olson is the market's top pick to go home, even after slipping 7 points. He and Slater scored 32/40 on Dedication Night for a quickstep to "L-O-V-E" that featured his mother, Laura, tying for the lowest mark of the night. Their Horror Movie Night routine is a contemporary to "That's Life," inspired by Joker, and Week 7 scores are not posted yet.
Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess (59%, Yes 59¢ / No 42¢, no movement shown)
Cameron also scored 32/40 for a contemporary to "Supermarket Flowers," and he and Burgess were in the final group when Guillermo Rodriguez went home on Super Bowl Night. He has described shoulder, hip, thumb and wrist problems that make some lifts painful. Tonight they dance a Viennese waltz to "Love Song for a Vampire," inspired by Bram Stoker's Dracula.
Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik (31%, Yes 31¢ / No 70¢, -3 pts)
Ali posted a season-best 32/40 on Dedication Night with a Viennese waltz honoring James Avery, joined by Alfonso Ribeiro, but that still left her tied for the lowest score. She draws a paso doble to "I Lied to You," inspired by Sinners. Traders have trimmed her price by 3 points, though she remains the third-likeliest exit.
Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold (20%, Yes 20¢ / No 81¢, -8 pts)
Wood has fallen the furthest on the board, down 8 points, after a Viennese waltz to "Piano Man" earned 32/40, a seven-point jump from his 25/40 samba the week before. His Week 7 assignment is a contemporary to "You Are My Sunshine," inspired by Annabelle: Creation.
Remaining couples
- Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa (6%, +1 pts): Scored 36/40 for her Heath Ledger tribute and now faces an Argentine tango to "The Dogs Attack," inspired by The Omen.
- Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy (5%, +3 pts): Dewan scored 37/40 with substitute partner Alan Bersten, and Chmerkovskiy returns for an Argentine tango to "Uninvited."
- Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas (5%, +1 pts): A 35/40 on Dedication Night keeps them comfortable, though their contemporary will be judged by Ballas's mother, guest judge Shirley Ballas.
- Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson (4%, +2 pts): A 36/40 foxtrot last week and a contemporary to "Toxic," inspired by Saw, tonight.
- Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov (<1%): The Week 6 leader at 38/40 is priced as a near lock to stay.
- Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach (<1%): A 37/40 contemporary keeps them among the safest couples on the board.
Kalshi also lists a "None" contract for no elimination, trading at 1¢.
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DWTS Week 7 Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket event contracts work the same way: the price in cents is the implied chance, and "Yes" pays $1 if that couple is eliminated in Week 7. The board has only $17,464 in total volume, and several contracts show wide gaps between the Yes and No prices.
| 🪩 Couple | 🎯 Eliminated Yes | Price | 💰 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Olson & Emma Slater | Jackson Olson | Eliminated Yes (94¢) | $6.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess | Tyler Cameron | Eliminated Yes (93¢) | $7.53 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik | Tatyana Ali | Eliminated Yes (90¢) | $11.11 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas | Maura Higgins | Eliminated Yes (50¢) | $100.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold | Connor Wood | Eliminated Yes (32¢) | $212.50 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa | Julia Stiles | Eliminated Yes (10¢) | $900.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson | Harry Shum Jr. | Eliminated Yes (5.6¢) | $1,685.71 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy | Jenna Dewan | Eliminated Yes (5.4¢) | $1,751.85 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov | Amber Glenn | Eliminated Yes (5.2¢) | $1,823.08 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach | Ezra Frech | Eliminated Yes (1.2¢) | $8,233.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Prices above are the "Buy Yes" prices on Polymarket's board. The 90¢-plus prices for Olson, Cameron and Ali come from books with no real two-sided market, so they are not true probabilities.
Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold (24%, Yes 32¢ / No 84¢, -3%)
Wood carries the highest displayed probability on Polymarket, and his $4,174 in volume is the deepest of any contract that shows a price. The 24% sits between a 32¢ Yes and an 84¢ No, a sign of how thin the book is. Kalshi has him at 20%, so the two markets roughly agree on his level of risk.
Jackson Olson, Tyler Cameron & Tatyana Ali (No Displayed Probability)
These three contracts show no probability at all. Olson's Yes costs 94¢ and his No costs 91¢, Cameron's are 93¢ and 96¢, and Ali's are 90¢ and 93¢, with volume of $888, $318 and $4,563. In a working two-sided market, Yes and No prices land near $1 combined, so these are not 90%-plus chances. They are the same three couples leading Kalshi's board.
Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa (7%, Yes 10¢ / No 96¢, +1%)
Stiles is the next-highest displayed price at 7%. Her 36/40 Heath Ledger tribute leaves her well clear of the 32/40 group, and her Argentine tango to "The Dogs Attack" is one of three tangos being judged side by side tonight. Kalshi has her at 6%.
Remaining couples
- Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy (4%): A 37/40 Viennese waltz last week puts them in the top tier, with an Argentine tango to "Uninvited" ahead.
- Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson (3%, -34%): The 34% drop came on a $1,930 contract, and a 36/40 foxtrot supports the low price.
- Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas (3%, +21%): The 21% jump came with Yes at 50¢ on just $243 in volume, so treat it as noise.
- Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov (3%): The 38/40 Week 6 leader trades at a 5.2¢ Yes on only $148 in volume.
- Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach (1%, -1%): A 37/40 Dedication Night makes them the safest price on the board.
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How Kalshi and Polymarket Compare on DWTS Week 7
The two boards agree on the bottom of the field. Both have Frech near 1%, and Dewan, Stiles, Shum and Higgins sit within a few points of each other on each exchange. Wood is the one contested name with a usable price on both, at 20% on Kalshi and 24% on Polymarket.
The real divergence is at the top. Kalshi prices Olson at 64%, Cameron at 59% and Ali at 31%, while Polymarket offers no midpoint for any of them. Glenn (3% on Polymarket, under 1% on Kalshi) and Higgins (3% against 5%) also differ, but those gaps sit on contracts with $148 and $243 in volume. Polymarket also lists no "None" contract, which is a difference in market design, not a price gap.
Kalshi's volume is more than 300 times Polymarket's, which makes it the cleaner read on where traders stand. Polymarket's board looks like a market waiting for liquidity, so its small price differences say little about the show.
DWTS Week 7 Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
Four couples (Ali, Cameron, Olson and Wood) tied for the lowest judges' score at 32/40 on Dedication Night, and Kalshi has already sorted them. Olson and Cameron sit above 55%, Ali is a distant third, and Wood has dropped 8 points. Olson's 7-point slide is the other big move, while Dewan (+3) and Shum (+2) have drifted up from low bases.
Scores alone will not decide the night. The hosts said Dedication Night's scores and votes carry over into Tuesday's result, and ABC has not published how the two weeks combine. Viewer votes count alongside the judges, so a 32/40 does not guarantee an exit.
Tuesday's show can still reprice the board. Shirley Ballas guest-judges, and her son Mark Ballas dances with Higgins, while three couples (Glenn, Dewan and Stiles) draw Argentine tangos that the judges will compare directly. Val Chmerkovskiy's return to the ballroom with Dewan adds another variable. Week 7 scores are not available as of this writing.
With two seats to fill, this is a contested field and not a runaway. Kalshi has two couples above 55%, a third near 31% and Wood close behind, so any one of four exits would not be a shock.
How to Trade DWTS Week 7 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code ACTION when signing up to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
