Derrick Henry Player Props | Best Derrick Henry Picks & Trades for Jaguars vs. Ravens (TNF)

The Polymarket promo code (ACTION) is perfect to use on Thursday Night Football, and this Jaguars vs. Ravens prediction rounds up our best Derrick Henry player props.

• The Jaguars arrive 5-2 with the NFL's best run defense, allowing 77.4 rushing yards per game, although tackle DaVon Hamilton is out for the season with a torn quadriceps.
• The Ravens are 4-4 and on a three-game skid, and undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano makes his first career start with Lamar Jackson headed to injured reserve and Tyler Huntley out.

Here is our full board of Derrick Henry props from the best prediction markets, with every price taken from Polymarket's live tickets.

Read our dedicated Polymarket review to learn more, or check out more prediction market promo codes for other platforms.

Derrick Henry Player Props: Our Best Polymarket Picks for Jaguars vs. Ravens

Every pick below is a real trade we would make on Polymarket, ordered from anytime touchdowns to rushing yards, rushing attempts and first scores.

For more places to trade, see our guide to the best prediction market apps and our NFL coverage.

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Henry enters the matchup with 632 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns through eight games, and he carries the biggest workload in the league. He entered 2026 as the active leader in career rushing yards with 13,018 and fourth all-time in rushing touchdowns with 122. With Jackson and Huntley out, an offense without its starting quarterback leans heavily on him.

Our approach is simple: price each ticket against his real hit rate this season and check it against the matchup. Every hit rate below comes from his eight games so far.

Polymarket takes a small cut through fees and fills orders against live order book depth, so payouts are never clean share math. The returns shown are what each ticket displayed at the time of writing and can move before kickoff.

Derrick Henry Player Props – Anytime Touchdown

Henry has found the end zone in 6 of his 8 games this season, counting his 18-yard receiving score at Atlanta. That is a 75% hit rate against a 44% price, and he ran in a two-yard score at Buffalo last Sunday.

The red zone belongs to him. ESPN's fantasy notes say Henry has led the NFL in carries inside the 5-yard line (42) since joining Baltimore in 2024 and ranks second in touchdowns (34) over that stretch.

Longevity backs the number. ESPN's notes say Henry has not finished lower than eighth among running backs in touchdowns since 2017, and he opened this season with three rushing touchdowns against Indianapolis.

He has more ways to score than usual, with 12 catches for 75 yards and a receiving score this season. Jacksonville has been generous to backs as pass catchers, with only five teams allowing more receptions per game to the position.

With a rookie quarterback making his first start, Baltimore's most reliable path to points runs through Henry, and a $100 buy at 44 cents is roughly 227 shares.

• If Henry scores a touchdown: returns $218.75.
• If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

That is a return of about 2.2 times your stake, and the price sits well below his 75% season rate.

If you want Henry to deliver a multi-touchdown night, 2+ touchdowns sits at 10 cents and returns $941.10 on a $100 buy. He has done it in 2 of 8 games this season, three scores against Indianapolis and two against Dallas, which is 25% against a 10% price.

Henry has 17 total touchdowns in 15 career games against Jacksonville, all with Tennessee, including a four-score night in 2018. With nose tackle DaVon Hamilton out for the season, the middle of that defense has lost its anchor right where Henry does his best work.

Derrick Henry Player Props – Rushing Yards

Henry's yardage lines give you a ladder to choose from. The 60+ line at 63 cents is the safest rung with the lowest return, 70+ at about 49 cents pays more, and 80+ at 40 cents is the longshot.

He has cleared 60 yards in 5 of 8 games, 70 in 4 of 8 (144, 89, 73 and 102 yards) and 80 in 3 of 8 (144, 89 and 102).

Volume drives all three numbers. Henry leads the NFL with 158 carries, about 20 a game, and at the 3.4 yards per rush Jacksonville allows, 18 carries reach 60 yards, 21 reach 70 and 24 reach 80.

The profile is exactly what you want on a yardage ladder. ESPN's notes say Henry finished second in the NFL in rushing yards in 2025 for the fourth season in a row, and his 5.20 yards per carry last year ranked fifth among qualified backs.

He has beaten an elite run defense already. At Atlanta in Week 5 he ran for 102 yards on 24 carries against a defense that entered allowing an NFL-best 48.3 rushing yards per game, and Baltimore kept feeding him with Lamar Jackson sidelined.

The matchup has cracked open too. Jacksonville lost nose tackle DaVon Hamilton, who anchored its league-leading run defense, to a torn quadriceps, and after holding opponents to 63.8 rushing yards per game over the first five weeks it has allowed 100-plus team rushing yards in each of its last two.

The Jaguars are thinner at safety as well, with Eric Murray out for the season and Antonio Johnson limited with an ankle injury. Safeties are often the second level of the defense against a back as physical as Henry.

Henry's history against Jacksonville is dominant. He averaged 104.3 rushing yards at 5.4 per carry across 15 career games against the Jaguars, all with Tennessee, with seven 100-yard games, including 153 yards on 19 carries in January 2024. He has twice run for 200-plus yards and two touchdowns in a game against the Jaguars, and he grew up near Jacksonville.

Polymarket's board shows 48 cents on the 70+ line, but the ticket fills at a 49.1 cent average, so we use that in the table. A $100 buy at 63 cents for 60+ is roughly 159 shares, and 70+ at 49.1 cents is roughly 204.

• If Henry reaches the line you chose: returns $154.74 for 60+, $196.74 for 70+ or $240.00 for 80+.
• If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost.

That is a return of about 1.5 times your stake on the safest rung, just under 2 times on 70+ and 2.4 times on the longshot.

And if you want the biggest swing on the same carries, 80+ rushing yards is a 40 cent ticket that returns $240.00 on a $100 buy. Henry has cleared 80 in 3 of 8 games (144, 89 and 102 yards), a 37.5% rate against a 40% price.

At 24 carries, Jacksonville's league-best 3.4 yards per rush still adds up to about 82 yards, and Henry has reached 24 carries three times already. His 153-yard game against Jacksonville in January 2024 came on only 19 carries.

Derrick Henry Player Props – Rushing Attempts

Henry leads the NFL with 158 carries, and he has reached 24 or more in 3 of 8 games (24, 26 and 24). That includes the 24 carries at Atlanta, where Baltimore leaned on him with Jackson out.

Workload is his trademark. He opened this season with 24 carries for 144 yards against Indianapolis and followed it with 26 carries at Dallas, so the volume this ticket needs is a number he has hit from the first week.

Now the Ravens are starting an undrafted rookie quarterback in his first career start, one who went 10-of-21 for 91 yards in relief at Buffalo. Baltimore's plan is built around handing the ball to its 252-pound back early and often, and a short week favors the simplest plan, which for a first-time starter means a heavy dose of Henry. A $100 buy at 49 cents is roughly 204 shares.

• If Henry reaches 24 rushing attempts: returns about $204.08.
• If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost.

That is a return of roughly 2 times your stake on the busiest workload in the league.

Derrick Henry Player Props – First Touchdown Scorer

Baltimore is starting a rookie quarterback in his first career game, so the offense has every reason to hand the ball to its goal-line back early. Henry's two-yard score at Buffalo came late in the first quarter, and no one in the NFL has more carries inside the 5-yard line since 2024.

The 36 cent price sits close to his 44 cent anytime price, a sign the market sees Baltimore's touchdowns running through Henry. A $100 buy at a 36.21 cent average is roughly 276 shares.

• If Henry scores the Ravens' first touchdown: returns $264.48.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely.

That is a return of roughly 2.6 times your stake on a role-driven prop.

For a bigger swing on the opening score of the whole game, Henry as the first touchdown scorer is priced at 16.54 cents on the ticket and returns $571.67 on a $100 buy. At that price the market gives him about a one-in-six chance to score first of anyone on the field, which is generous for a back who handles goal-line work and has led the NFL in carries inside the 5-yard line since 2024. Polymarket's board shows 15 cents, but the ticket fills at that higher average price, so we use it in the table.

Henry has 17 touchdowns in 15 career games against Jacksonville, including a four-score night in 2018, and his 34 touchdowns since joining Baltimore rank second in the NFL. With Hamilton out, the Jaguars' interior has lost its anchor right where Henry does his best work.

Jaguars vs. Ravens Moneyline, Spread and Total Through Derrick Henry's Lens

Derrick Henry shapes every line on this board. Jacksonville is 81.5% to win outright on Polymarket and 52.5% to win by more than 9.5 points, and Baltimore's best route to staying in this game is Henry plus the clock.

The total of 39.5 points signals a short, grind-it-out game, the kind where a lead back's carries pile up. A close score keeps his 24+ attempts and 70+ yard tickets in play, while the touchdown and first touchdown tickets can cash whatever the final margin.

Red-zone trips are the real swing factor, and Henry's goal-line role means most trips inside the 5 should be his. Jacksonville ranks in the top five in EPA per play on both offense and defense, which is part of why the market is comfortable laying more than a touchdown.

On availability, Henry was not listed on the Ravens' injury report earlier this week. Final inactives are announced shortly before kickoff, so check the designations before you trade.

What's Moving the Market for Derrick Henry Player Props

Prediction markets and prices move for many reasons, and this week the biggest driver was the quarterback news. Jackson's thumb injury and Huntley's toe injury at Buffalo sent the Jaguars' moneyline from roughly 40% to above 80% on Polymarket's chart, while the Over 39.5 slipped 8% on the day.

That shift helps explain how Henry's props are priced. The market gives him a 44% chance to score, well below his 75% season rate, and Fagnano's 91 passing yards on 21 attempts in his first action point Baltimore toward the run.

Watch the final injury designations, Fagnano's ankle and any change to Jacksonville's interior line, since each can move the rushing tickets before kickoff.

How to Trade Derrick Henry Player Props With Polymarket Promo Code ACTION

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Final Thoughts: Derrick Henry Player Props for Jaguars vs. Ravens

Henry is the center of Baltimore's game plan with a third-string quarterback under center, and he gets a Jaguars run defense that just lost its anchor in Hamilton. The anytime touchdown ticket is the clearest read, because his 75% season rate sits far above the 44% price.

The rushing yards ladder lets you choose your price, with 60+ as the safest rung and 80+ as the longshot. Claim Polymarket promo code ACTION to get $25 in bonuses, and use the live prices before kickoff to lock in your Derrick Henry picks.

If you want a core, the anytime touchdown ticket and the 60+ rushing yards ticket are the two cleanest reads. The first touchdown tickets are role-driven swings, and the 70+, 80+ and attempts lines reward a heavy Henry workload.

Derrick Henry Player Props – FAQs

What is the Polymarket promo code for Derrick Henry player props? The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION. Create an account, make a qualifying deposit and enter the code before you trade any of Henry's markets.

What are the best Derrick Henry player props for Jaguars vs. Ravens? Our lead ticket is Henry to score 1+ touchdowns, since he has scored in 6 of 8 games and the price sits well below that rate. The rushing yards ladder (60+, 70+ and 80+), rushing attempts and the first touchdown tickets round out the board.

Is Derrick Henry playing on Thursday? At the time of writing, Henry was not listed on the Ravens' injury report. Final inactives are announced shortly before kickoff, so check the official designations before you trade.

Who is starting at quarterback for the Ravens? Undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano is set to make his first career start while playing through an ankle injury. Lamar Jackson is headed to injured reserve with a thumb injury, and Tyler Huntley is out with a toe injury.

What are the Jaguars vs Ravens odds on Polymarket? The Jaguars are priced at 81.5% to win outright and the Ravens at 18.75%. Jacksonville to win by more than 9.5 points sits at 52.5%, and the Over 39.5 sits at 52%.

How do Derrick Henry touchdown and rushing contracts work on Polymarket? Each contract resolves Yes if Henry reaches the stated number, such as 1+ touchdowns or 70+ rushing yards, and No if he does not. Every winning share pays one dollar and a losing share pays nothing.

How has Derrick Henry played against the Jaguars? Henry has played 15 career games against Jacksonville, all with Tennessee, running for 1,564 yards at 5.4 yards per carry with 16 rushing touchdowns. His most recent meeting was in January 2024.