The Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race both have Republicans as heavy favorites on Polymarket and Kalshi, even as new polling shows both contests tightening in the final stretch.
- Byron Donalds, David Jolly, Ashley Moody and Angie Nixon all have live Florida Governor election and Senate contracts on both exchanges, and Kalshi also lists a Governor-Senate combo market.
- The latest Jolly vs Donalds polls run from a 47-47 tie to an 11-point Donalds lead, while Moody vs Nixon polls range from a 2-point race to a 10-point Moody edge.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms as statewide early voting opens Saturday, October 24, ahead of Election Day on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (81¢) | $123.46 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (20¢) | $500.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (82¢) | $121.95 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (18¢) | $555.56 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (92¢) | $108.70 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (91.4¢) | $109.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (9.4¢) | $1,063.83 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Florida Governor Election and Florida Senate Race Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Florida contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Florida Governor race market and the Senate market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price, since a win for one candidate is a loss for the other in each two-way race.
Florida Governor Race 2026
Polymarket prices Donalds at 81¢, an implied 81% chance and roughly a 4-to-1 favorite, and the gap between that number and the October polling is the central story in this race.
Byron Donalds (YES 81¢ / NO 20¢, +1 pt)
Donalds gained 1 point on the board even as the newest University of North Florida poll cut his lead to 49-47, down from five points in July.
The rest of the field still leans his way, with Stetson University showing him up 52-41, Mason-Dixon giving him a 48-41 edge, and Decision Desk HQ rating the race Lean Republican.
He also holds a Trump endorsement and a large money advantage, with his campaign and affiliated committees having raised $120.9 million to roughly $14.6 million for Jolly.
David Jolly (YES 20¢ / NO 81¢, -2 pts)
Jolly lost 2 points, yet the Jolly vs Donalds polls are the reason traders haven't written him off.
Change Research had the two tied at 47-47 and a St. Pete Polls survey found a 45-45 dead heat, while UNF has Jolly ahead by 16 points among independents.
He is hoping to become the first elected Democratic governor in Florida since 1994.
Florida Senate Race 2026
The Senate board is more lopsided, with Polymarket treating Ashley Moody as a 92% favorite in the special election for the seat Marco Rubio held for 14 years.
Ashley Moody (YES 92¢ / NO 11¢, +3 pts)
Moody gained 3 points, mirroring Nixon's 2-point drop on the board, even though the UNF poll now has her lead at just 49-45.
She is the appointed incumbent, has about $20.5 million in total campaign funds to Nixon's roughly $8.5 million, and Florida hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2012.
The Moody vs Nixon polls mostly back the favorite, including a Mason-Dixon survey for NBC 6 that had her ahead 50-40 and an On Point Politics poll at 52.5% to 45.7%.
Angie Nixon (YES 11¢ / NO 92¢, -2 pts)
Nixon, a progressive state representative from Jacksonville, slipped 2 points even though she outraised Moody in the third quarter, $7.6 million to $5.8 million.
A St. Pete Polls survey had the race at 47% for Moody and 45% for Nixon, a far tighter margin than an 11¢ price implies, and UNF found independents favoring Nixon by 15 points.
That same UNF survey found 30% of respondents saying Democrats' Hope Florida messaging made them less likely to back Moody.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and Kalshi's Governor market has already topped $4.1 million in volume.
Florida Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's Governor board sits within a cent of Polymarket on both candidates, and its own margin forecast has the Republican up 5.7 points.
Byron Donalds (YES 82¢ / NO 19¢, +4 pts)
Donalds jumped 4 points on Kalshi, the biggest move on either Governor board, and 82¢ is the firmest price on either exchange.
The newest polls are more mixed than that jump suggests, with UNF at Donalds +2 and YouGov at 47-45, though the NBC 6 Mason-Dixon survey still has him ahead 48-41, helped by a 55% to 33% edge among men.
David Jolly (YES 18¢ / NO 83¢, -4 pts)
Jolly dropped 4 points, the mirror image of Donalds' gain, and his YES price is now 2¢ cheaper than on Polymarket.
His case rests on women, who back him 49% to 41% in the Mason-Dixon poll, and on independents, who favored him 47% to 28% in that survey.
Florida Senate Race 2026
Kalshi has Moody a fraction behind Polymarket, with a margin forecast of Republican +8.4.
Ashley Moody (YES 91.4¢ / NO 9.3¢, +0.6 pts)
Moody gained 0.6 points, a modest move, and the 8.4-point forecast sits between UNF's 4-point lead and Mason-Dixon's 10-point edge.
The board shows a small quirk: a Moody NO at 9.3¢ is cheaper than a Nixon YES at 9.4¢, even though a Nixon win is the main way a Moody NO pays.
That gap is structural, since NO on the favorite also pays if independent Neil Gillespie or any other candidate wins, while Nixon's YES pays only if she does.
Angie Nixon (YES 9.4¢ / NO 91.4¢, -0.6 pts)
Nixon slipped 0.6 points, and Kalshi still prices her 1.6¢ below Polymarket.
Mason-Dixon found her leading Moody 41% to 35% among independents, with 8% of that group backing Gillespie, while UNF also has independents going her way by 15 points.
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Florida Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Kalshi also lets traders bet on how the two races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Republican sweep is the clear favorite on the board at 79¢, a Jolly win paired with a Moody win is the next most likely, and the two outcomes involving a Nixon win are long shots.
Kalshi is the only exchange in this piece with a combo board, and it prices all four possible pairings, though the market is thin at roughly $9,400 in total volume.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody win (GOP sweep) | YES 79¢ | NO 22¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Ashley Moody win (split ticket) | YES 14¢ | NO 89¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Angie Nixon win (Dem sweep) | YES 9¢ | NO 96¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Angie Nixon win (split ticket) | YES 6¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race
The two boards agree on every favorite. Donalds sits at YES 81¢ on Polymarket and YES 82¢ on Kalshi, while Moody is at YES 92¢ and YES 91.4¢, respectively.
The underdogs tell the same story in reverse. Jolly trades at YES 20¢ on Polymarket and YES 18¢ on Kalshi, and Nixon is at YES 11¢ and YES 9.4¢.
Polymarket is the friendlier exchange for Democrats in both races this time, giving Jolly an extra 2¢ and Nixon an extra 1.6¢, though the gaps are small enough to read as noise rather than a signal.
The bigger divergence is between the exchanges and the surveys. Jolly vs Donalds polls have ranged from Stetson's 52-41 Donalds lead to Change Research's 47-47 tie, yet neither board has Donalds below YES 81¢.
Moody vs Nixon polls show a similar spread, from Mason-Dixon's 10-point Moody lead to St. Pete Polls' 47-45 result, but both markets still treat her as a strong favorite at YES 91.4¢ or better.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is in contract design: Kalshi's combo board lets traders express a view on the two races together, while Polymarket's Governor and Senate boards here only cover each race on its own.
Florida Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The two exchanges moved the same direction on the Florida Governor election but not by the same amount, with Donalds up 1 point on Polymarket and 4 on Kalshi and Jolly down 2 and 4, a sign that traders are leaning back toward the favorite even as the final batch of polls narrows.
That dispersion is the whole story. Stetson (+11) and Mason-Dixon (+7) have Donalds comfortably ahead, UNF and YouGov have him up just 2, and both Change Research and St. Pete Polls show a tie.
The Senate board moved in Moody's favor too, with a 3-point gain on Polymarket and 0.6 on Kalshi, even though UNF's lead for her has shrunk from 8 points in July to 4 points now.
The On Point Politics poll at 52.5% to 45.7% and Mason-Dixon's 10-point result back the price, while the St. Pete Polls near-tie and the UNF survey are the closer reads.
The combo board adds one more read. A Donalds and Moody sweep at 79¢ sits 3 points below Donalds' standalone 82¢ price on Kalshi, and the two Jolly pairings add up to 23¢ against his 18¢ Governor price.
All four combo YES prices also sum to 108¢, a gap worth discounting given how thin the combo market is.
Turnout is the likeliest catalyst for a repricing. Statewide early voting opens Saturday, October 24 and runs through October 31, with some counties already open since October 19, and UNF's pollster said strong Democratic turnout would make Jolly slightly favored while a Republican enthusiasm edge would give Donalds and Moody more comfortable wins.
The next round of Jolly vs Donalds polls and Moody vs Nixon polls is the other likely trigger before Election Day on November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (81¢) | $123.46 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (20¢) | $500.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (82¢) | $121.95 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (18¢) | $555.56 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (92¢) | $108.70 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (91.4¢) | $109.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (9.4¢) | $1,063.83 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This is two Republican-favored races priced with different levels of risk: a Florida Governor election where the polls run from a tie to a double-digit Donalds lead, and a Senate race where Moody has led most surveys but UNF shows her edge shrinking to 4 points.
Watch the combo board for the clearest read on how traders see the two races landing together. A Donalds and Moody sweep is the dominant outcome on Kalshi, and early voting turnout is the most likely thing to change that picture before November 3.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Florida Governor race odds?
Byron Donalds is trading at 81¢ on Polymarket and 82¢ on Kalshi, while David Jolly sits at 20¢ on Polymarket and 18¢ on Kalshi.
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate race?
Ashley Moody is the heavy favorite at 92¢ on Polymarket and 91.4¢ on Kalshi, with Angie Nixon priced at 11¢ and 9.4¢, respectively.
What do the latest Jolly vs Donalds polls show?
The polls are split. Stetson University has Donalds ahead 52-41 and a University of North Florida poll released October 21 has him up 49-47, while Change Research shows a 47-47 tie and St. Pete Polls shows a 45-45 dead heat.
What do the latest Moody vs Nixon polls show?
A University of North Florida poll has Moody ahead 49-45, a Mason-Dixon poll for NBC 6 had her up 50-40, On Point Politics had her at 52.5% to 45.7%, and a St. Pete Polls survey found her ahead by just 47% to 45%.
How do Jolly vs Donalds polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more confident than the polling suggests, with both exchanges keeping Donalds at 81¢ or higher even though two recent polls show a tie and the newest UNF survey has him up only 2 points.
Are Moody vs Nixon polls tightening before Election Day?
Results vary by pollster. UNF's Moody lead shrank from 8 points in July to 4 points in October, while Mason-Dixon had her up 10, and both exchanges moved Nixon down to 11¢ on Polymarket and 9.4¢ on Kalshi.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Florida Governor election slightly differently?
The boards are within a couple of cents of each other. Small gaps like Donalds at 81¢ versus 82¢ usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
What do the Florida Governor-Senate combo bets show?
Kalshi prices a Donalds and Moody sweep at 79¢, a Jolly and Moody split at 14¢, a Jolly and Nixon sweep at 9¢ and a Donalds and Nixon split at 6¢.
When does early voting start for the Florida Governor election?
Mandatory early voting runs October 24 through October 31, though some counties began as early as October 19, and Election Day is November 3.
How do I trade the Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
