The Florida Governor race has tightened on Polymarket and Kalshi, with Byron Donalds sliding to 76¢ on both exchanges, while the Florida Senate race still has Ashley Moody priced at 89¢ to 90¢.
- Byron Donalds, David Jolly, Ashley Moody and Angie Nixon all have live Florida Governor election and Senate contracts on both exchanges, and Kalshi also lists a Governor-Senate combo market.
- Jolly vs Donalds polls now run from a 45-45 tie to an 11-point Donalds lead, while Moody vs Nixon polls range from a 2-point race to a 10-point Moody edge.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms, with more than 3 million ballots already cast and Election Day set for Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (76¢) | $131.58 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (26¢) | $384.62 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (76¢) | $131.58 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (26¢) | $384.62 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (89¢) | $112.36 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (90¢) | $111.11 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Right now, you can use the Polymarket promo code ACTION and you'll be able to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!
Florida Governor Election and Florida Senate Race Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Florida contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Florida Governor race market and the Senate market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price. Those figures are approximations, since third-party and write-in candidates are also on the ballot.
Florida Governor Race 2026
Polymarket now prices Donalds at 76¢, an implied 76% chance and roughly a 3-to-1 favorite, and the board has moved toward Jolly more than any other market in this piece.
Byron Donalds (YES 76¢ / NO 26¢, -6 pts)
Donalds dropped 6 points, the steepest move on either Governor board, after a University of North Florida poll released October 21 cut his lead to 49-47 from 5 points in July.
The cushion is still real. The RealClearPolling average of seven polls has him at 48.6% to Jolly's 43.0%, and both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Lean Republican.
He also has Trump's endorsement, with the president rallying for him in Fort Myers on Friday and due back in Daytona Beach on October 30, plus a fundraising lead of more than $100 million.
David Jolly (YES 26¢ / NO 76¢, +5 pts)
Jolly gained 5 points as Democrats added late momentum, including an endorsement from Barack Obama and a 15-stop "Believe in Better" tour that opened in Pensacola on Monday.
The Jolly vs Donalds polls explain why traders will pay 26¢ for him. He leads independents by 16 points in the UNF survey and by 19 points in Mason-Dixon, and he drew 11% of Republicans in the UNF poll.
He is hoping to become the first elected Democratic governor in Florida since 1994.
Florida Senate Race 2026
The Senate board has barely moved, with Polymarket pricing Ashley Moody at 89¢, an implied 89% chance, in the special election for the seat Marco Rubio held for 14 years.
Ashley Moody (YES 89¢ / NO 11¢)
Moody's price shows no change on the board, even though the UNF poll shrank her lead from 8 points in July to 4 points now.
The newest surveys are friendlier to her, with ActiVote's October 27 poll at 53% to 47% and both Mason-Dixon and the James Madison Institute showing her up 10.
She is the appointed incumbent, and Florida hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2012.
Angie Nixon (YES 11¢ / NO 89¢)
Nixon slipped less than 1 point to 11¢, an implied 11% chance, even though the UNF poll found independents favoring her by 15 points.
A St. Pete Polls survey had the Moody vs Nixon race at 47% to 45%, a far tighter margin than an 11¢ price implies.
Nixon, a progressive state representative from Jacksonville, won the August 18 Democratic primary over Alex Vindman.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and Kalshi's Governor market has topped $5.5 million in volume while its Senate market has passed $2.8 million.
Florida Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's Governor board matches Polymarket on both candidates at 76¢ and 26¢, and its own margin forecast has the Republican up 4.3 points.
Byron Donalds (YES 76¢ / NO 25¢, -3 pts)
Donalds fell 3 points on Kalshi, half the drop Polymarket recorded, and the 4.3-point forecast sits a little below the 5.6-point lead in the RealClearPolling average.
ActiVote's October 19 poll had him ahead 51.7% to 48.3%, and the NBC 6 Mason-Dixon survey had him up 48-41, helped by a 55% to 33% edge among men.
David Jolly (YES 26¢ / NO 75¢, +3 pts)
Jolly gained 3 points, and the board shows a small quirk: a Donalds NO at 25¢ is cheaper than a Jolly YES at 26¢, even though a Jolly win is the main way that Donalds NO pays.
That gap is structural, since NO on the favorite also pays if Libertarian Scott Eckhard Jewett, an independent or a write-in candidate wins, while Jolly's YES pays only if he does.
His case rests on women, who back him 49% to 41% in the Mason-Dixon poll, and on independents, who favored him 47% to 28% in that survey.
Florida Senate Race 2026
Kalshi has Moody a cent firmer than Polymarket, with a margin forecast of Republican +7.1.
Ashley Moody (YES 90¢ / NO 11¢, +1 pt)
Moody gained 1 point, and the 7.1-point forecast sits between the UNF poll's 4-point lead and the 10-point leads from Mason-Dixon and the James Madison Institute.
Two newer surveys point the same way, with Republican-aligned co/efficient showing her up 48-40 and RedBox Research showing her ahead 50-43.
Angie Nixon (YES 11¢ / NO 90¢, -1 pt)
Nixon dropped 1 point and now trades at the same 11¢ as on Polymarket.
Mason-Dixon found her leading Moody 41% to 35% among independents, with 8% of that group backing independent Neil Gillespie, and women favored her 48% to 43%.
Similarly to Polymarket, you can sign up with the Kalshi promo code to claim a trading bonus.
Enter Kalshi promo code ACTION55 when signing up and you'll be able to Trade $25, Get $55!
Florida Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Kalshi also lets traders bet on how the two races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Republican sweep is still the clear favorite at 77¢, a Jolly win paired with a Moody win is next at 18¢, and the Democratic sweep and a Donalds and Nixon split trail at 11¢ and 6¢.
Kalshi is the only exchange in this piece with a combo board, and it prices all four possible pairings, though the market is thin at roughly $14,300 in total volume.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody win (GOP sweep) | YES 77¢ | NO 29¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Ashley Moody win (split ticket) | YES 18¢ | NO 85¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Angie Nixon win (Dem sweep) | YES 11¢ | NO 95¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Angie Nixon win (split ticket) | YES 6¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race
The two boards agree on every favorite and nearly every price. Donalds sits at YES 76¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Moody is at YES 89¢ on Polymarket and YES 90¢ on Kalshi.
The underdogs match too. Jolly trades at YES 26¢ on both exchanges, and Nixon is at YES 11¢ on both, so the only gap in the YES prices is a single cent on Moody, which is small enough to read as noise rather than a signal.
The one wrinkle is on the NO side. Polymarket's derived price for Donalds is NO 26¢, while Kalshi quotes NO 25¢ directly, a difference that comes from the way Polymarket's figure is built from Jolly's quoted price.
The bigger divergence is between the exchanges and the surveys. Jolly vs Donalds polls run from St. Pete Polls' 45-45 tie to Stetson's 11-point Donalds lead, and the YES 76¢ price now sits much closer to that spread than the prices above 80¢ on both boards last week.
Moody vs Nixon polls show a similar spread, from St. Pete Polls' 47-45 result to the 10-point Mason-Dixon lead, but both markets still treat her as a strong favorite at YES 89¢ or better.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is in contract design: Kalshi's combo board lets traders express a view on the two races together, while Polymarket's Governor and Senate boards here only cover each race on its own.
Florida Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
Both exchanges repriced the Florida Governor election toward Jolly this week, with Polymarket moving Donalds down 6 points and Jolly up 5, and Kalshi moving them 3 points each way. Donalds was above 80¢ on both boards as recently as last week.
The drivers are a tighter set of final polls and a busy closing stretch. Stetson (+11), the James Madison Institute (+10) and Mason-Dixon (+7) still have Donalds comfortably ahead, but ActiVote has him up 3.4, UNF has him up 2 and St. Pete Polls shows a tie.
Money and star power are the other levers. Donalds raised roughly $12.5 million in the week ending October 16, including $5 million from Ken Griffin, while Jolly raised $2.4 million, and Trump returns to Daytona Beach on October 30, a few days after Obama endorsed Jolly.
The Senate board barely reacted. Moody is unchanged on Polymarket and up 1 point on Kalshi, even though UNF's lead for her has shrunk from 8 points in July to 4 points now, because ActiVote (+6), co/efficient (+8) and RedBox (+7) all put her comfortably ahead.
The combo board adds one more read. A Donalds and Moody sweep at 77¢ sits a cent above Donalds' standalone 76¢ price on Kalshi, which cannot hold logically, and the four combo YES prices add up to 112¢ even though Kalshi's displayed chances add up to 100%, a spread worth discounting in a market this thin.
Turnout is the biggest unknown. State data showed 1,492,287 mail ballots and 1,660,398 early votes cast as of Tuesday morning, with Democrats leading the mail returns 643,143 to 529,943 and Republicans leading early voting 727,255 to 601,289.
That leaves Republicans ahead by roughly 12,800 ballots combined despite a registration edge of about 1.5 million, and another 574,105 no-party voters have already voted, a group Jolly leads in most polls.
Early voting runs through October 31 and Election Day is November 3, so the remaining turnout reports and any late Jolly vs Donalds polls and Moody vs Nixon polls are the likeliest triggers for another repricing.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (76¢) | $131.58 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (26¢) | $384.62 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (76¢) | $131.58 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (26¢) | $384.62 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (89¢) | $112.36 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (90¢) | $111.11 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This is two Republican-favored races moving in different directions: a Florida Governor election where Donalds has slid to 76¢ on both exchanges as the polls narrow, and a Senate race where Moody has held at 89¢ to 90¢ despite a closer UNF read.
Watch the combo board for the clearest read on how traders see the two races landing together. A Donalds and Moody sweep is still the dominant outcome on Kalshi, and the final turnout numbers are the most likely thing to change that picture before November 3.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Florida Governor race odds?
Byron Donalds is trading at 76¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while David Jolly sits at 26¢ on both exchanges.
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate race?
Ashley Moody is the heavy favorite at 89¢ on Polymarket and 90¢ on Kalshi, with Angie Nixon priced at 11¢ on both exchanges.
What do the latest Jolly vs Donalds polls show?
The polls are split. Stetson University has Donalds ahead 52-41 and the James Madison Institute has him up 52-42, while a University of North Florida poll shows him leading 49-47 and St. Pete Polls shows a 45-45 tie.
What do the latest Moody vs Nixon polls show?
ActiVote's October 27 poll has Moody ahead 53-47, a University of North Florida poll has her up 49-45, Mason-Dixon had her ahead 50-40, and St. Pete Polls found her leading by just 47-45.
How do Jolly vs Donalds polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets now sit closer to the polling. Donalds is priced at 76¢ on both exchanges, which lines up with a poll average that has him ahead by roughly 5 to 6 points, though the two closest surveys show a tie and a 2-point race.
Are Moody vs Nixon polls tightening before Election Day?
Results vary by pollster. UNF's Moody lead shrank from 8 points in July to 4 points in October, but ActiVote's newest survey has her up 6 and Mason-Dixon and the James Madison Institute each had her ahead by 10.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Florida Governor election the same?
The two boards are identical on both candidates, with Donalds at 76¢ and Jolly at 26¢. That kind of match usually signals traders on both exchanges are reading the same polls and early voting data.
What do the Florida Governor-Senate combo bets show?
Kalshi prices a Donalds and Moody sweep at 77¢, a Jolly and Moody split at 18¢, a Jolly and Nixon sweep at 11¢ and a Donalds and Nixon split at 6¢.
How many Floridians have already voted?
State data showed more than 3.1 million ballots cast as of Tuesday morning, October 27, including 1,492,287 by mail and 1,660,398 at early voting sites. Early voting runs through October 31 and Election Day is November 3.
How do I trade the Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
