The South Carolina Senate race 2026 has tightened on prediction markets, with Darline Graham slipping to 74¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi while the SC governor race keeps Alan Wilson above 95¢.
- Graham, Annie Andrews, Wilson and Jermaine Johnson all have live contracts on both exchanges, and both Senate boards moved 4 points toward Andrews.
- Graham vs Andrews polls now run from a 1-point Graham edge to a 4-point lead, while Johnson vs Wilson polls show Wilson up 10.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current South Carolina Senate race 2026 and SC governor race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Darline Graham | YES (74¢) | $135.14 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Annie Andrews | YES (28¢) | $357.14 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Darline Graham | YES (74¢) | $135.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Annie Andrews | YES (27¢) | $370.37 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Alan Wilson | YES (96¢) | $104.17 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Jermaine Johnson | YES (6¢) | $1,666.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Alan Wilson | YES (95.9¢) | $104.28 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Jermaine Johnson | YES (4.8¢) | $2,083.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Right now, you can use the Polymarket promo code ACTION and you'll be able to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!
Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race and SC Governor Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's South Carolina contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Polymarket South Carolina Senate race and the governor's market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price. That is an approximation here, since Libertarian Kasie Whitener and the Constitution Party's Mark Hackett are also on the Senate ballot and the governor's race has minor-party candidates too.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026
Polymarket tags the race Likely R, but a 74¢ price for the appointed incumbent is a long way from the safe seat Republicans once expected.
Darline Graham (YES 74¢ / NO 28¢, -4 pts)
Graham gave back 4 points, and the latest Graham vs Andrews polls explain why traders are less certain. The South Carolina Policy Council survey, conducted Oct. 16-25, had her ahead just 47% to 46% among likely or already-voted respondents, well inside its 2.77-point margin of error.
She is the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, was appointed in July and beat Rep. Ralph Norman in the August runoff with Trump's backing. Trump rallied for her in Clemson last week.
Annie Andrews (YES 28¢ / NO 74¢, +4 pts)
Andrews gained 4 points to 28¢, a 28% implied chance. A Citadel poll released this week has Graham up 43% to 39% among likely voters, but it found 14% still undecided and Andrews leading 47% to 34% in the Charleston area.
The campaign also picked up endorsements from former SC governors Beasley and Hodges on Monday, and Andrews is a pediatrician making a second run for office after losing the 2022 House race to Nancy Mace.
SC Governor Race 2026
The governor's board is far more lopsided, with Polymarket tagging the race Safe R.
Alan Wilson (YES 96¢ / NO 6¢, +1 pts)
Wilson added 1 point to reach 96¢, a 96% implied chance, and the polling backs the price. The Policy Council survey had him ahead of Johnson 51% to 41%, with 5% undecided.
He is the state attorney general, won the June runoff after Trump offered a co-endorsement, and is the heavy favorite to replace term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster.
Jermaine Johnson (YES 6¢ / NO 96¢)
Johnson sits at 6¢, a 6% implied chance, and the Johnson vs Wilson polls give him few openings. His best number came from an August Hart Research survey for his own campaign, which had Wilson up 48-41 before respondents read positive descriptions of both candidates and the gap narrowed to 48-46.
Johnson is a three-term state representative from the Columbia area, and Democrats haven't won a South Carolina governor's race since 1998.
Kalshi South Carolina Senate Race and SC Governor Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a derived number.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3. The Kalshi South Carolina Senate race has traded $7.09 million in volume, while the governor's market is far thinner at $76,368.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026
Kalshi's own margin forecast has the Republican ahead by 3.8 points, which lines up with the Trafalgar and Citadel results more than with the 1-point Policy Council number.
Darline Graham (YES 74¢ / NO 27¢, -4 pts)
Kalshi shows Graham at a 73% chance, down 4 points, and her Yes price matches Polymarket's 74¢ exactly. The chart shows the drop came late, after most of the year spent well above 80%.
A Trafalgar poll released Oct. 19 had Graham ahead 48.6% to 45.6%, a 3-point edge that sits close to the margin Kalshi's forecast implies.
Annie Andrews (YES 27¢ / NO 74¢, +4 pts)
Andrews gained 4 points to 27%, and Kalshi prices her a cent below Polymarket's 28¢.
Her case rests on the Charleston area, where The Citadel found her up 47-34, and on newer South Carolina residents, who the same poll found leaning her way.
SC Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's governor board sits within a fraction of a cent of Polymarket on Wilson, and its margin forecast has the Republican up 10.9 points.
Alan Wilson (YES 95.9¢ / NO 4.5¢, +0.4 pts)
Wilson edged up 0.4 points to a 95.3% chance on the board, and the forecast lines up with the 10-point lead in the Policy Council poll.
Kalshi lists Yes at 95.9¢, a tenth of a cent below Polymarket's 96¢.
Jermaine Johnson (YES 4.8¢ / NO 95.9¢, -0.4 pts)
Johnson slipped 0.4 points to 4.7%, and Kalshi prices him 1.2¢ below Polymarket's 6¢, the widest gap between the exchanges on either race.
The board also shows a small quirk: a Wilson NO at 4.5¢ is cheaper than a Johnson YES at 4.8¢, even though a Johnson win is the main way that Wilson NO pays. That gap is structural, since NO on the favorite pays on any other outcome, including a third-party win, while Johnson's YES pays only if he wins and trades on a thin order book.
Similarly to Polymarket, you can sign up with the Kalshi promo code to claim a trading bonus.
Enter Kalshi promo code ACTION55 when signing up and you'll be able to Trade $25, Get $55!
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race
The two boards agree on every favorite. Graham sits at YES 74¢ on both exchanges, while Wilson is at YES 96¢ on Polymarket and YES 95.9¢ on Kalshi.
The underdogs tell the same story in reverse. Andrews trades at YES 28¢ on Polymarket and YES 27¢ on Kalshi, and Johnson is at YES 6¢ and YES 4.8¢, respectively.
Polymarket is the friendlier exchange for Democrats in both races, by 1¢ in the Senate race and 1.2¢ in the governor's race, which is small enough to read as noise rather than a signal.
The bigger question is how the exchanges treat the surveys. Graham vs Andrews polls show leads of 1 to 4 points, yet both boards still price her near YES 74¢, which leans on South Carolina's Republican tilt as the tiebreaker.
In the governor's race the markets and the polls line up, with Johnson vs Wilson polls showing a 10-point Wilson lead and both exchanges at YES 95.9¢ or better for the Republican.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is in what they publish. Kalshi shows a margin forecast of Republican +3.8 in the Senate race and +10.9 for governor, plus volume of $7.09 million against $76,368, while Polymarket tags the races Likely R and Safe R.
Graham vs Andrews Polls and Johnson vs Wilson Polls: Market Price Influencers
Both Senate boards moved 4 points toward Andrews in lockstep, a sign that traders reacted to the same cluster of late polling rather than to platform-specific flows.
That cluster is split. The Policy Council survey has Graham up 1, Trafalgar had her up 3 on Oct. 19, and The Citadel has her up 4, with 14% undecided and 2% saying they might write in Ralph Norman, a wildcard researchers said could pull the South Carolina Senate race 2026 inside the margin of error.
Money is flowing toward Graham too. Outside Republican groups have spent $9.7 million since Oct. 1 to back her or attack Andrews, according to a Reuters analysis of federal filings, and Trump's Clemson rally was part of the same late push.
The governor's board barely moved. Wilson gained 1 point on Polymarket and 0.4 on Kalshi, and the Johnson vs Wilson polls give traders little reason to push back, with a 51-41 Policy Council result in line with Kalshi's Republican +10.9 forecast.
The likeliest repricing triggers are the final days of early voting, which runs through Saturday, Oct. 31, and the additional South Carolina stop FOX Carolina reports Trump has planned. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Darline Graham | YES (74¢) | $135.14 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Annie Andrews | YES (28¢) | $357.14 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Darline Graham | YES (74¢) | $135.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Annie Andrews | YES (27¢) | $370.37 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Alan Wilson | YES (96¢) | $104.17 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Jermaine Johnson | YES (6¢) | $1,666.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Alan Wilson | YES (95.9¢) | $104.28 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Jermaine Johnson | YES (4.8¢) | $2,083.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race: Final Thoughts
This is one race that has stopped looking safe and one that still does: a Senate contest where Graham vs Andrews polls sit within 1 to 4 points but both exchanges keep her near 74¢, and a governor's race where Wilson is above 95¢ on both boards.
Watch the Kalshi South Carolina Senate race and Polymarket South Carolina Senate race boards against that 74¢ line through the last days of early voting. A late Andrews move would say traders are starting to trust the surveys over the state's partisan lean.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race FAQs
What are the current South Carolina Senate Race 2026 odds?
Darline Graham is trading at 74¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Annie Andrews sits at 28¢ on Polymarket and 27¢ on Kalshi.
Who is favored in the SC Governor Race?
Alan Wilson is the heavy favorite at 96¢ on Polymarket and 95.9¢ on Kalshi, with Jermaine Johnson priced at 6¢ and 4.8¢, respectively.
What do the latest Graham vs Andrews polls show?
The race is close. The South Carolina Policy Council poll has Graham ahead 47-46, Trafalgar had her up 48.6% to 45.6% on Oct. 19, and The Citadel has her leading 43-39 with 14% undecided.
What do the latest Johnson vs Wilson polls show?
Wilson leads 51-41 in the South Carolina Policy Council poll conducted Oct. 16-25, and he led 48-41 in an August Hart Research survey for Johnson's campaign before respondents heard positive descriptions of both candidates.
What are the Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race odds?
The Polymarket South Carolina Senate race board has Graham at 74¢ and Andrews at 28¢, and tags the race Likely R.
What are the Kalshi South Carolina Senate Race odds?
The Kalshi South Carolina Senate race board has Graham at 74¢ YES and 27¢ NO, Andrews at 27¢ YES and 74¢ NO, and a margin forecast of Republican +3.8.
How do Graham vs Andrews polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more confident than the polls. Both exchanges keep Graham at 74¢ even though the Policy Council survey had her ahead by only one point.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the SC Governor Race slightly differently?
The boards are within about a cent of each other. Small gaps like Johnson at 6¢ versus 4.8¢ usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth, and Kalshi's governor market has only $76,368 in volume.
When does early voting end in the South Carolina Senate Race 2026?
Early voting in South Carolina runs through Saturday, Oct. 31, and Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.
How do I trade the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
