The Florida Governor race has tightened again on Polymarket and Kalshi, with Byron Donalds down to 70¢ and 69¢ while the Florida Senate race still has Ashley Moody at 90¢ on both exchanges.
- Both exchanges list Florida Governor election and Senate contracts for Donalds, David Jolly, Moody and Angie Nixon, and Kalshi adds a Governor-Senate combo board.
- The latest Jolly vs Donalds polls run from a 4-point Donalds edge in the New York Times/Siena survey to a 2-point race at St. Pete Polls, while Moody vs Nixon polls have her up 5 to 8 points.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms, with nearly 4 million ballots already cast and Election Day set for Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (70¢) | $142.86 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (31¢) | $322.58 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (69¢) | $144.93 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (32¢) | $312.50 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (90¢) | $111.11 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (90¢) | $111.11 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Florida Governor Election and Florida Senate Race Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket prices every Florida contract from 1¢ to 99¢, so the number on the board doubles as an implied probability, and a "Yes" share pays $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Governor and Senate markets resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election, and traders can buy or sell shares at any point before then.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price, since a win for one candidate is a loss for the other. Independent Neil Gillespie is also on the Senate ballot, so the derived prices are approximations.
Florida Governor Race 2026
Polymarket tags the Florida Governor election board as Lean R, and Donalds is now roughly a 2-to-1 favorite after sitting at 76¢ on both exchanges earlier this week.
Byron Donalds (YES 70¢ / NO 31¢, -2 pts)
Donalds gave back 2 points, and the 70¢ price implies a 70% chance he succeeds the term-limited Ron DeSantis.
The polling still leans his way, with the New York Times/Siena survey showing him up 48-44 and the RealClearPolitics average at Donalds +5.0, though St. Pete Polls had him ahead by just 48-46.
He also holds a $33.3 million cash-on-hand edge and appears with Donald Trump at a Daytona Beach rally on Friday night.
David Jolly (YES 31¢ / NO 70¢, +2 pts)
Jolly gained 2 points, and a 31¢ price implies a 31% chance of the first Democratic win for the office since 1994.
Traders have reasons to keep him close. Siena has him winning voters outside the two major parties by 15 points, and a breakdown of the St. Pete Polls numbers showed the race flipping to a one-point Jolly lead if the electorate comes in at R+8.
Jolly called the race a toss-up on Thursday and said his campaign has the momentum.
Florida Senate Race 2026
The Senate board is far steadier, with Polymarket tagging it Likely R and pricing Moody as a 90% favorite heading into the final weekend.
Ashley Moody (YES 90¢ / NO 11¢)
Moody at 90¢ is the strongest price on either Florida board, and the Siena poll gave the appointed incumbent a 50-44 lead with 50% support.
Other recent Moody vs Nixon polls agree on direction, with Echelon Insights at 51-43 and YouGov at 49-44, and the RealClearPolitics average stands at Moody +6.2.
Angie Nixon (YES 11¢ / NO 90¢)
Nixon sits at 11¢, an 11% implied chance, and her best argument is independents, who Siena has backing her 52-38.
Her ties to the Democratic Socialists of America are the Republican closing line, though only 37% of likely voters in the same poll called her too far to the left.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, and each market resolves by winning party on November 3.
The exchange also publishes its own margin forecasts, R +3.4 in the Governor race and R +6.0 in the Senate race, which give a second read on how traders see the Florida Governor election and the Senate race.
Florida Governor Race 2026
Kalshi has Donalds a cent behind Polymarket, and its R +3.4 forecast sits below the RealClearPolitics Donalds +5.0 average and close to the 4-point Siena result.
Byron Donalds (YES 69¢ / NO 32¢, -1 pts)
Donalds slipped 1 point, and 69¢ implies a 69% chance, the softer of his two exchange prices.
The early vote explains some of the caution. Democrats lead returned mail ballots 727,000 to 594,000, while Republicans lead in-person early voting 972,000 to 788,000, leaving Republicans ahead by roughly 60,000 ballots overall.
David Jolly (YES 32¢ / NO 69¢, +1 pts)
Jolly gained 1 point, and the two ways to bet on a Jolly win, YES at 32¢ and Donalds NO at 32¢, now cost exactly the same.
His path runs through the roughly 700,000 ballots cast by no-party voters, and he told reporters that early turnout has been better than he expected.
Florida Senate Race 2026
Kalshi matches Polymarket at 90¢ for Moody, and its R +6.0 margin forecast lines up almost exactly with the Siena result and the 6.2-point RealClearPolitics average.
Ashley Moody (YES 90¢ / NO 11¢)
Moody is priced at 90¢, a 90% implied chance, and Trump is expected to campaign for her at the same Daytona Beach rally that features Donalds.
Decision Desk HQ rates the race Likely Republican at 78%, so both exchanges are more confident in her than that model is.
Angie Nixon (YES 11¢ / NO 90¢)
Nixon is priced at 11¢, an 11% chance, and the case for an upset leans on turnout, since Siena's model assumes an R+13 electorate that is more Republican than other recent polls.
A more Democratic mix would trim the 6-point gap, though Nixon would still need to outrun every recent Moody vs Nixon poll to win.
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Florida Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Kalshi again lists a combo board that pairs one Governor outcome with one Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Republican sweep is the clear favorite at 70¢, a Jolly win paired with a Moody win is next at 22¢, and both outcomes involving a Nixon win are long shots.
Kalshi is the only exchange in this piece with a combo board, and the market is thin, with the four YES prices adding up to more than 100¢.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody win (GOP sweep) | YES 70¢ | NO 33¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Ashley Moody win (split ticket) | YES 22¢ | NO 83¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Angie Nixon win (Dem sweep) | YES 12¢ | NO 93¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Angie Nixon win (split ticket) | YES 5¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race
The two boards agree on every favorite. Donalds sits at YES 70¢ on Polymarket and YES 69¢ on Kalshi, while Moody is at YES 90¢ on both.
The underdogs line up just as closely. Jolly trades at YES 31¢ on Polymarket and YES 32¢ on Kalshi, and Nixon is at YES 11¢ on both.
The only gaps are a single cent on each side of the Governor race, small enough to read as different order books rather than a real disagreement about the outcome.
The bigger divergence is with the models. Decision Desk HQ rates Donalds Lean Republican at 67%, right where the Governor boards sit, but gives Moody 78%, well below the YES 90¢ both exchanges are charging.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is contract design: Kalshi's combo board lets traders express a view on both races together, while Polymarket's Governor and Senate boards here only cover each race on its own.
Florida Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The two exchanges moved together again on the Florida Governor election, with Donalds down 2 points on Polymarket and 1 point on Kalshi and Jolly up by the same amounts, extending a slide that began when both boards had Donalds at 76¢.
The polling explains most of it. Siena's 48-44 result and St. Pete Polls' 48-46 result are both a notch tighter than the Donalds +5.0 RealClearPolitics average, and the Jolly vs Donalds polls now hinge on turnout, with St. Pete's numbers showing Donalds up one at R+10 and down one at R+8.
The Senate board has barely moved. Moody is at 90¢ on both exchanges, and the latest Moody vs Nixon polls from Siena, Echelon Insights and YouGov all have her ahead by 5 to 8 points.
The combo board mirrors that split. A Donalds and Moody sweep at 70¢ lines up with Donalds' own price, while the 22¢ Jolly and Moody split is the market's way of pricing a Governor upset without a Senate one.
Early voting is the last big variable. Nearly 4 million ballots were in as of Thursday, with Republicans ahead 1.57 million to 1.51 million overall, Democrats ahead by mail and Republicans ahead in person.
Early voting ends Saturday, October 31 in most counties, and Friday night's Trump rally in Daytona Beach is the last big scheduled event before Tuesday's vote.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (70¢) | $142.86 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (31¢) | $322.58 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (69¢) | $144.93 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (32¢) | $312.50 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (90¢) | $111.11 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (90¢) | $111.11 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This is two Republican-favored races priced with very different levels of conviction: a Florida Governor race where Donalds has slid to 70¢ and 69¢ as the Jolly vs Donalds polls tighten, and a Florida Senate race where both exchanges still have Moody at 90¢.
Watch the final early voting returns and Tuesday's turnout mix, since the Florida Governor election board is the one most likely to reprice before the polls close on November 3.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Florida Governor race odds?
Byron Donalds is trading at 70¢ on Polymarket and 69¢ on Kalshi, while David Jolly sits at 31¢ on Polymarket and 32¢ on Kalshi.
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate race?
Ashley Moody is the heavy favorite at 90¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with Angie Nixon priced at 11¢ on both exchanges.
What do the latest Jolly vs Donalds polls show?
The New York Times/Siena poll has Donalds ahead 48-44 and St. Pete Polls has him up 48-46, while the RealClearPolitics average stands at Donalds +5.0.
What do the latest Moody vs Nixon polls show?
The New York Times/Siena poll has Moody ahead 50-44, Echelon Insights has her up 51-43 and YouGov has her up 49-44, with the RealClearPolitics average at Moody +6.2.
Why has Donalds slipped on Polymarket and Kalshi?
Donalds was at 76¢ on both exchanges earlier this week, and tighter polling from Siena and St. Pete Polls, plus a turnout-dependent race, has pulled him down to 70¢ and 69¢.
How do Moody vs Nixon polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more confident than at least one model. Both exchanges have Moody at 90¢, while Decision Desk HQ rates the race Likely Republican at 78%.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Florida Governor election slightly differently?
The boards are within a cent of each other. Small gaps like Donalds at 70¢ versus 69¢ usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
What do the Florida Governor-Senate combo bets show?
Kalshi prices a Donalds and Moody sweep at 70¢, a Jolly and Moody split at 22¢, a Jolly and Nixon sweep at 12¢ and a Donalds and Nixon split at 5¢.
How many Floridians have already voted?
State data showed nearly 4 million ballots cast as of Thursday, with Republicans ahead of Democrats 1.57 million to 1.51 million. Early voting ends October 31 in most counties and Election Day is November 3.
How do I trade the Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
