Floridians vote today in the Florida Governor race and the Florida Senate race, with Byron Donalds at 69¢ on Polymarket and 70¢ on Kalshi after a Monday slide, and Ashley Moody at 88¢ on both exchanges.
- Polymarket and Kalshi both list head-to-head Governor and Senate markets for Donalds, David Jolly, Moody and Angie Nixon, Polymarket adds Margin of Victory brackets, and Kalshi is the only exchange with a Governor-Senate combo board.
- The closing Jolly vs Donalds polls run from a 1-point race to a 7-point Donalds lead, while the Moody vs Nixon polls have Moody ahead by 2 to 7 points.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms as voters head to the polls on Tuesday, November 3, with results expected after polls close at 7 p.m. ET.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (69¢) | $144.93 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (32¢) | $312.50 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Republicans by 3-6% | YES (56¢) | $178.57 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (70¢) | $142.86 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (32¢) | $312.50 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (88¢) | $113.64 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (14¢) | $714.29 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Republicans by 12-15% | YES (26¢) | $384.62 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (88¢) | $113.64 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (13¢) | $769.23 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Florida Governor Election and Florida Senate Race Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket prices every Florida contract between 1¢ and 99¢, so a 69¢ share on Donalds implies a 69% chance, and a "Yes" share pays $1.00 if the candidate wins and nothing if they lose.
Both winner markets settle on the November 3 general election, the boards list results as expected tonight at 7 p.m., and shares can be sold back to the market at any point before the contract resolves.
Polymarket also runs Margin of Victory brackets under each race, which let traders bet on how large the Republican win will be rather than only who wins, and those contracts get their own entries below.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price on the winner markets, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price, since a win for one candidate is a loss for the other. Independent Neil Gillespie is on the Senate ballot and a small share of Governor voters pick someone else, so the derived prices are approximations, while the Margin of Victory brackets show their own Yes and No quotes.
Florida Governor Race 2026
Polymarket tags the Florida Governor election Lean R, and the board has swung back toward the Republican this morning after a late climb for Jolly.
Byron Donalds (YES 69¢ / NO 32¢, +7 pts)
Donalds gained 7 points to 69¢, a 69% implied chance of succeeding term-limited Ron DeSantis, and the move unwinds most of a surge for Jolly that had carried him close to 39¢.
The final Jolly vs Donalds polls lean his way without settling the race. Research Co., fielded October 31 to November 2, had Donalds ahead 48-44, Stetson University had him up 51-45, Targoz had him up 50-43, and RedBox Research found a 47-46 race.
The polling averages sit in the middle of that range, with RealClearPolling at Donalds +4.0 and Decision Desk HQ at Donalds +3.7, and he also has a registration edge to lean on, with 5.69 million Republicans to 4.15 million Democrats among Florida's 13.7 million voters.
David Jolly (YES 32¢ / NO 69¢, -7 pts)
Jolly dropped 7 points to 32¢, which still gives him a 32% implied chance of ending Republican control of the governor's mansion that dates to 1999.
His case is built on the early vote. Division of Elections data showed 49% of registered Democrats had already voted as of Monday, compared with roughly 38% to 39% of registered Republicans.
Jolly closed with a Monday night rally in Broward County, where he launched his campaign, after stops in Haines City, Brevard County and West Palm Beach.
Republicans by 3-6% Margin (YES 56¢ / NO 80¢, +28 pts)
Polymarket's Margin of Victory board prices a Republican win by 3% to 6% at 56¢, up 28 points, and that bracket sits right on the polling averages of Donalds +4.0 and Donalds +3.7.
The board also lists neighboring brackets, including 0-3% and 6-9%, so traders can lean toward a tighter or wider result than the polls show.
Florida Senate Race 2026
Polymarket tags the Florida Senate race Likely R, a label that matches the new Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings after both moved the race out of the Solid or Safe Republican column in the past week.
Ashley Moody (YES 88¢ / NO 14¢, +2 pts)
Moody rose 2 points to 88¢, an 88% implied chance in the special election for the remainder of Marco Rubio's term, and Florida has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2012.
The latest Moody vs Nixon polls all have her ahead but vary widely, from a 52-45 result in the Big Data Poll and a 49-43 result from InsiderAdvantage to a 47-45 result from RedBox Research, and RealClearPolling averages Moody +6.3.
Moody campaigned alongside Donalds on Monday in Polk County and Sarasota, a sign the two Republicans are running a joint turnout push.
Angie Nixon (YES 14¢ / NO 88¢)
Nixon slipped less than a point to 14¢, a 14% implied chance, and her case rests on a Democratic turnout rate that is running well above the Republican rate.
At least 189,000 more no-party and third-party voters had cast ballots as of Sunday than at the same point in 2022, according to Division of Elections data compiled by Fresh Take Florida, a group Nixon needs to break her way.
Republicans by 12-15% Margin (YES 26¢ / NO 98¢, +20 pts)
The Senate Margin of Victory board prices a Republican win by 12% to 15% at 26¢, up 20 points, which is well above Moody's +6.3 polling average and closer to the 19-point margin DeSantis posted in 2022.
It is a big-win scenario rather than a forecast, and it would need a heavy Republican Election Day turnout to show up.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
🗳️ Where to Vote: Use the 'My Ballot' feature on Kalshi to find your local polling location and ballot info!
Kalshi runs the same two races as regulated event contracts, with a tradable Yes and No on every line, and both settle by winning party on the November 3 election.
The Senate market has drawn $5.62 million in volume already. Kalshi's Chance display can sit a point or two away from the YES price, so the YES price is the figure used throughout this piece and the pts moves refer to the Chance number.
Florida Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's Governor board has seen the biggest swing of the day, rebounding after Kalshi's own market blog put Donalds at an all-time low of 61% on Monday.
Byron Donalds (YES 70¢ / NO 31¢, +6 pts)
At 70¢, Donalds sits a cent above Polymarket, and the +6 pts refers to Kalshi's Chance figure of 68%, which is two points under the YES price.
The Republican case is the Election Day vote. Republicans had cast about 2.17 million ballots by the end of early voting, a lead of roughly 135,000 over Democrats that is far narrower than at the same stage of 2022 and 2024.
Donalds told supporters Monday that Democratic turnout is up on four years ago, but that Republicans are about to show up at the polls.
David Jolly (YES 32¢ / NO 69¢, -6 pts)
Jolly is at 32¢ on Kalshi, matching Polymarket, after giving back 6 points on the Chance display.
His closing pitch was housing, health care, education and a moratorium on new data centers, while Donalds answered with promises to cut insurance premiums by 20% and to pursue property tax cuts.
Florida Senate Race 2026
Kalshi matches Polymarket on Moody at 88¢ and sits a cent below it on Nixon.
Ashley Moody (YES 88¢ / NO 14¢, +2 pts)
Moody's 88¢ price is an 88% implied chance, and the Chance display reads 87%, up 2 points.
The handicappers agree with the board. Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both closed the cycle with the race at Likely Republican, after moving it out of the Solid or Safe Republican column within the past week.
Angie Nixon (YES 13¢ / NO 88¢, -2 pts)
Nixon is at 13¢, a cent below Polymarket, and the Chance display shows her down 2 points to 13%.
The upset case needs a large no-party vote, since OnPoint's early-vote tracker put no-party and third-party voters at 22% of the ballots cast.
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Florida Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Kalshi's combo board pairs one Governor outcome with one Senate outcome in a single contract, and it is the only exchange in this comparison with a board like it.
A Republican sweep leads at 63¢, a Jolly win paired with a Moody win is next at 27¢, and the two pairings that need a Nixon win trade at 10¢ each.
The board is thin, with $40,325 in volume, and the four YES prices add up to 110¢, so the pairings read better as a ranking than as exact probabilities. The Chance display has the Jolly and Moody pairing down 9 points to 22%, the largest move on the board.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody win (GOP sweep) | YES 63¢ | NO 40¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Ashley Moody win (split ticket) | YES 27¢ | NO 77¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Angie Nixon win (Dem sweep) | YES 10¢ | NO 94¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Angie Nixon win (split ticket) | YES 10¢ | NO 95¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race
The two boards agree on both favorites again today. Donalds is at YES 69¢ on Polymarket and YES 70¢ on Kalshi, while Moody is at YES 88¢ on both.
The underdogs are nearly identical. Jolly sits at YES 32¢ on both exchanges, and Nixon is at YES 14¢ on Polymarket and YES 13¢ on Kalshi.
Polymarket's derived No prices also track Kalshi's quoted ones. A Donalds No is NO 32¢ on Polymarket and NO 31¢ on Kalshi, Jolly and Moody match at NO 69¢ and NO 14¢, and Nixon is NO 88¢ on both.
Kalshi is a cent firmer on Donalds, while Polymarket is a cent firmer on Nixon, a spread small enough to read as noise rather than a signal.
The final Jolly vs Donalds polls cluster around a 4-point Donalds lead, which the boards price as roughly a 7-in-10 shot at YES 69¢ and YES 70¢, while the Moody vs Nixon polls show a lead of about 6 points that sits behind YES 88¢.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is contract design: Kalshi's combo board lets traders express a view on both races together, while Polymarket's Margin of Victory brackets let traders bet on the size of the Republican win, with YES 56¢ on a Governor margin of 3% to 6% and YES 26¢ on a Senate margin of 12% to 15%.
Florida Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The Florida Governor election board snapped back this morning, with Donalds up 7 points on Polymarket and 6 on Kalshi's Chance display after Kalshi's own market blog had him at an all-time low of 61% on Monday.
The polling backs the rebound more than the Monday scare. The latest Jolly vs Donalds polls from Research Co., Stetson and Targoz all have Donalds ahead by 4 to 7 points, and only RedBox Research shows a 1-point race.
The Senate board moved far less. Moody gained 2 points on both exchanges, Nixon slipped less than a point on Polymarket and 2 points on Kalshi, and the latest Moody vs Nixon polls keep Moody ahead in every case.
Turnout is the last big variable. Division of Elections data showed 5.4 million of Florida's 13.7 million voters had cast ballots as of Monday, about 69% of the 2022 midterm total, with 49% of registered Democrats voting against roughly 38% to 39% of registered Republicans.
That sets up an Election Day test for Republicans, whose turnout ran about 600,000 above Democratic turnout in the 2022 midterm and who hold a registration advantage of roughly 1.5 million voters.
The margin boards add a read on size: the Governor bracket at 56¢ lines up with a race near 4 points, while the 26¢ on a double-digit Senate win is the boldest Republican bet on either board.
Kalshi's combo prices also fit the standalone boards, since the two Moody pairings total 90¢ against an 88¢ Moody YES and the two Jolly pairings total 37¢ against a 32¢ Jolly YES, a gap worth discounting given how thin the combo market is.
The likeliest triggers for a repricing are the first returns after polls close at 7 p.m. ET in most of the state, the 8 p.m. ET close in the Central Time Panhandle, and the Election Day turnout mix by party.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (69¢) | $144.93 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (32¢) | $312.50 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Republicans by 3-6% | YES (56¢) | $178.57 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (70¢) | $142.86 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (32¢) | $312.50 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (88¢) | $113.64 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (14¢) | $714.29 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Republicans by 12-15% | YES (26¢) | $384.62 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (88¢) | $113.64 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (13¢) | $769.23 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This is two Republican-favored races priced with different conviction: a Florida Governor race where Donalds has rebounded to 69¢ and 70¢ after a Monday low, and a Florida Senate race where both exchanges hold Moody at 88¢.
With polls closing tonight, the Florida Governor election board is the one with room to move, and the first returns plus the size of the Republican Election Day vote are the most likely things to move it.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Florida Governor race odds?
Byron Donalds is trading at 69¢ on Polymarket and 70¢ on Kalshi, while David Jolly sits at 32¢ on both exchanges.
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate race?
Ashley Moody is the heavy favorite at 88¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with Angie Nixon priced at 14¢ on Polymarket and 13¢ on Kalshi.
What do the latest Jolly vs Donalds polls show?
Research Co. has Donalds ahead 48-44, Stetson University has him up 51-45, Targoz has him up 50-43, and RedBox Research shows a 47-46 race.
What do the latest Moody vs Nixon polls show?
The Big Data Poll has Moody ahead 52-45, InsiderAdvantage has her up 49-43, and RedBox Research has her up 47-45, while the RealClearPolling average is Moody +6.3.
When do polls close for the Florida Governor election?
Polls close at 7 p.m. ET in most of Florida, and at 8 p.m. ET in the Panhandle counties on Central Time, with Election Day on November 3.
How many Floridians have already voted?
Division of Elections data showed 5.4 million of Florida's 13.7 million voters had cast ballots as of Monday, with 49% of registered Democrats and roughly 38% to 39% of registered Republicans voting.
What are the Polymarket Margin of Victory markets for Florida?
Polymarket prices a Republican win by 3% to 6% in the Governor race at 56¢ and a Republican win by 12% to 15% in the Senate race at 26¢.
What do the Florida Governor-Senate combo bets show?
Kalshi prices a Donalds and Moody sweep at 63¢, a Jolly and Moody split at 27¢, a Jolly and Nixon sweep at 10¢ and a Donalds and Nixon split at 10¢.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Florida Governor election slightly differently?
The boards are within a cent of each other. A gap like Donalds at 69¢ versus 70¢ usually reflects different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
How do I trade the Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before the contract settles.
