The Florida Governor race is the closer of the state's two big contests with Election Day two days away, as Byron Donalds sits at 70¢ on Polymarket and 69¢ on Kalshi while the Florida Senate race has Ashley Moody at 90¢ on both exchanges.
- Polymarket and Kalshi both carry head-to-head Governor and Senate markets for Donalds, David Jolly, Moody and Angie Nixon, and Kalshi is the only one with a Governor-Senate combo board.
- The final Jolly vs Donalds polls show Donalds ahead by 2 to 4 points, while the closing Moody vs Nixon polls have Moody up by 4 to 8.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before Floridians head to the polls on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (70¢) | $142.86 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (32¢) | $312.50 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (69¢) | $144.93 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (32¢) | $312.50 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (90¢) | $111.11 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (90¢) | $111.11 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Florida Governor Election and Florida Senate Race Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket quotes every Florida contract between 1¢ and 99¢, so each price doubles as an implied probability, and a "Yes" share pays $1.00 if that candidate wins and nothing if they lose.
Both the Governor and Senate markets settle on the winner of the November 3 general election, and shares can be sold back to the market at any point before then.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price, since a win for one candidate is a loss for the other. Independent Neil Gillespie is on the Senate ballot and a small share of voters pick someone else for Governor, so the derived prices are approximations.
Florida Governor Race 2026
Polymarket tags the Florida Governor election as Lean R, and its price chart shows Donalds holding around 80¢ for much of October before sliding to 70¢ in the closing days.
Byron Donalds (YES 70¢ / NO 32¢)
At 70¢, Polymarket gives Donalds a 70% chance to succeed term-limited Ron DeSantis, a price that still leans on a Republican registration edge of more than 1.5 million voters.
The newest Jolly vs Donalds polls are tighter than that price suggests. A University of North Florida survey had Donalds up just 49-47, and St. Pete Polls, fielded October 25 to 27, showed him ahead 47.8% to 45.5%, inside its 3.2-point margin of error.
His money advantage is not in doubt, with MultiState counting more than $140 million raised against roughly $20 million for Jolly, and DeSantis joined him on the trail in Brooksville during the final week.
David Jolly (YES 32¢ / NO 70¢, +1 pts)
Jolly gained a point to reach 32¢, a 32% implied chance of becoming the first elected Democratic governor in Florida since 1994.
Independents are the core of his case. UNF has Jolly ahead by 16 points among voters outside the two major parties, and its sample had 11% of Republicans backing him against just 5% of Democrats backing Donalds.
Former President Bill Clinton campaigned with him in Hollywood in late October, and Jolly has pushed a pause on new data centers as part of his affordability pitch.
Florida Senate Race 2026
The Senate board is the steadier of the two, with Polymarket tagging the race Likely R and pricing the appointed incumbent as a 9-in-10 favorite.
Ashley Moody (YES 90¢ / NO 11¢)
Moody at 90¢ carries a 90% implied chance in the special election for the remainder of Marco Rubio's term, and Florida hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2012.
The latest Moody vs Nixon polls all have her ahead by 4 points or more, including Siena at 50-44, Echelon Insights at 51-43, RedBox Research at 50-43, and both UNF and St. Pete Polls at 49-45.
She declined to debate Nixon, who has pressed an allegation about $10 million in Medicaid funds that Moody denies.
Angie Nixon (YES 11¢ / NO 90¢)
Nixon is priced at 11¢, an 11% implied chance, and her best numbers come from independents, who Siena has backing her 52% to 38%.
Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders both threw their support behind her late in the race, while Moody has spent the closing days tying Nixon to the Democratic Socialists of America, a label Nixon rejects.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi runs the same two races as regulated event contracts, with a tradable Yes and No on every line, and both settle by winning party on November 3.
The Governor market has drawn $7.19 million in volume and the Senate market $3.49 million, and Kalshi's own margin forecasts sit at Republican +3.9 and Republican +6.0, respectively.
Florida Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's R +3.9 margin forecast for the Florida Governor election lines up with the 4-point Siena result, even though 69¢ is the softer of Donalds' two exchange prices.
Byron Donalds (YES 69¢ / NO 32¢)
At 69¢, Donalds carries a 69% implied probability on Kalshi, a cent behind Polymarket.
The early vote explains some of the caution. OnPoint's tracker had more than 4.2 million ballots in as of Friday, with Republicans at 40.4% and Democrats at 38.5%, a gap the tracker flags as stronger for Republicans than its model expected at this point.
David Jolly (YES 32¢ / NO 69¢)
Jolly is priced at 32¢, a 32% chance, and his candidacy is built on crossover appeal as a former Republican congressman who joined the Democratic Party in 2025.
Siena's 48-44 Governor result matches Kalshi's own margin forecast almost exactly, and the Jolly vs Donalds polls from UNF and St. Pete Polls both show a race within 2.3 points.
Florida Senate Race 2026
Kalshi matches Polymarket at 90¢ for Moody, and its R +6.0 margin forecast lands right on the 6-point Siena result.
Ashley Moody (YES 90¢ / NO 11¢)
Moody's 90¢ price is a 90% implied chance, and Siena found her ahead on every issue it measured, including the cost of living.
Her closing schedule included a Hialeah rally with Donalds and a planned Saturday stop in The Villages.
Angie Nixon (YES 11¢ / NO 90¢)
Nixon sits at 11¢, an 11% chance, and the upset case runs through turnout in South Florida, where Democrats have led the early vote in Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade.
She planned eight stops in Miami-Dade on Saturday, and UNF has her ahead among independents by 15 points.
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Florida Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Kalshi's combo board pairs one Governor outcome with one Senate outcome in a single contract, and it is the only board of its kind in this comparison.
A Republican sweep is the dominant outcome at 69¢, a Jolly win paired with a Moody win is next at 22¢, and the two outcomes that need a Nixon win are the long shots at 11¢ and 4¢.
The four YES prices add up to 106¢, a sign of the spread on a thin board, so the pairings read better as a ranking than as exact probabilities.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody win (GOP sweep) | YES 69¢ | NO 33¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Ashley Moody win (split ticket) | YES 22¢ | NO 83¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Angie Nixon win (Dem sweep) | YES 11¢ | NO 92¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Angie Nixon win (split ticket) | YES 4¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race
The two boards agree on both favorites. Donalds is at YES 70¢ on Polymarket and YES 69¢ on Kalshi, while Moody is at YES 90¢ on both.
The underdogs line up just as closely, with Jolly at YES 32¢ on both exchanges and Nixon at YES 11¢ on both.
Polymarket's derived No prices also land on top of Kalshi's quoted ones. A Donalds No is NO 32¢ on both, Moody and Nixon match to the cent, and only the Jolly side differs, at NO 70¢ on Polymarket and NO 69¢ on Kalshi.
The bigger gap is between the boards and the polls. The three most recent Jolly vs Donalds polls show a lead of 2 to 4 points, which makes a 70¢ price a bet that a narrow lead holds, while the Moody vs Nixon polls show leads of 4 to 8 points that sit more comfortably behind her YES 90¢ price.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is contract design: Kalshi's combo board lets traders express a view on both races together, while Polymarket's Governor and Senate boards here only cover each race on its own.
Florida Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The story on the Florida Governor election is the slide from around 80¢ earlier in October to 70¢ on Polymarket and 69¢ on Kalshi, with Jolly picking up a point on Polymarket's latest board.
The late polling did most of the work. Siena's 4-point result, UNF's 2-point result and St. Pete Polls' 2.3-point result are all tighter than the double-digit Donalds leads that Stetson and the James Madison Institute published earlier in the month.
The Senate board barely moved. Moody is at 90¢ on both exchanges, and the latest Moody vs Nixon polls from Siena, Echelon, RedBox, UNF and St. Pete Polls all have her ahead.
Early voting is the last big variable. More than 4.2 million ballots were in as of Friday, roughly 55% of the 7.8 million Floridians who voted in 2022, and early voting ended Saturday in most counties, though Palm Beach and Broward kept sites open through Sunday.
Independents are the swing group, with UNF showing them breaking Democratic by double digits in both races and Siena putting Nixon up 14 with them.
Kalshi's combo prices also add back up to the standalone boards, since the two Jolly pairings at 22¢ and 11¢ total 33¢ against a 32¢ Jolly YES.
The last Division of Elections update and the Election Day turnout mix are the likeliest triggers for a repricing before Tuesday.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (70¢) | $142.86 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (32¢) | $312.50 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (69¢) | $144.93 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (32¢) | $312.50 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (90¢) | $111.11 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (90¢) | $111.11 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This is two Republican-favored races priced with very different conviction: a Florida Governor race where Donalds has slipped to 70¢ and 69¢ as the Jolly vs Donalds polls narrow, and a Florida Senate race where both exchanges still hold Moody at 90¢.
The Florida Governor election board is the one with room to move, and the final early-vote totals plus Tuesday's turnout mix are the most likely things to change it before polls close.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Florida Governor race odds?
Byron Donalds is trading at 70¢ on Polymarket and 69¢ on Kalshi, while David Jolly sits at 32¢ on both exchanges.
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate race?
Ashley Moody is the heavy favorite at 90¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with Angie Nixon priced at 11¢ on both exchanges.
What do the latest Jolly vs Donalds polls show?
The New York Times/Siena poll has Donalds ahead 48-44, St. Pete Polls has him up 47.8% to 45.5%, and the University of North Florida poll has him up 49-47.
What do the latest Moody vs Nixon polls show?
The New York Times/Siena poll has Moody ahead 50-44, Echelon Insights has her up 51-43, and both UNF and St. Pete Polls have her ahead 49-45.
Why has the Florida Governor election tightened on Polymarket and Kalshi?
Donalds was around 80¢ earlier in October and is now at 70¢ on Polymarket and 69¢ on Kalshi, as the late Siena, UNF and St. Pete Polls surveys came in tighter than earlier double-digit leads.
How do Moody vs Nixon polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
Both exchanges have Moody at 90¢, and every recent poll has her ahead by 4 to 8 points, which makes her price more conventional than the one on the Governor board.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Florida Governor election slightly differently?
The boards are within a cent of each other. A gap like Donalds at 70¢ versus 69¢ usually reflects different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
What do the Florida Governor-Senate combo bets show?
Kalshi prices a Donalds and Moody sweep at 69¢, a Jolly and Moody split at 22¢, a Jolly and Nixon sweep at 11¢ and a Donalds and Nixon split at 4¢.
How many Floridians have already voted?
OnPoint's tracker showed more than 4.2 million ballots cast as of Friday. Early voting ended Saturday in most counties, while some, including Palm Beach and Broward, stayed open through Sunday, and Election Day is November 3.
How do I trade the Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
