The Georgia Senate race 2026 has Jon Ossoff priced as a 94% favorite on Polymarket and a 94.9% favorite on Kalshi, while the Georgia Governor race 2026 is far tighter, with Keisha Lance Bottoms at 62¢ on both exchanges even though the latest polls have Rick Jackson narrowly ahead.
- Jon Ossoff, Mike Collins, Keisha Lance Bottoms and Rick Jackson all have live Georgia Governor election and Senate contracts on both exchanges, and both Polymarket and Kalshi list a Governor-Senate combo market.
- The latest Georgia senate race 2026 polls show Ossoff up 7 to 8 points, while Bottoms vs Jackson polls have Jackson up 1 to 2 points in all three of the latest releases.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Georgia Senate race 2026 and Georgia Governor election odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Senate Race | Polymarket | Jon Ossoff | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Georgia Senate Race | Polymarket | Mike Collins | YES (7¢) | $1,428.57 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Georgia Senate Race | Kalshi | Jon Ossoff | YES (94.9¢) | $105.37 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Georgia Senate Race | Kalshi | Mike Collins | YES (5.3¢) | $1,886.79 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Georgia Governor Race | Polymarket | Keisha Lance Bottoms | YES (62¢) | $161.29 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Georgia Governor Race | Polymarket | Rick Jackson | YES (39¢) | $256.41 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Georgia Governor Race | Kalshi | Keisha Lance Bottoms | YES (62¢) | $161.29 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Georgia Governor Race | Kalshi | Rick Jackson | YES (39¢) | $256.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Georgia Senate Race 2026 and Georgia Governor Election Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Georgia contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Georgia Senate race 2026 market and the Georgia Governor election market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election, including any runoff, which Georgia would hold on December 1 if no candidate clears 50%.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price. That is a close approximation here, since no Libertarian qualified for the Georgia ballot and each race is effectively two-way.
Georgia Senate Race 2026
Polymarket labels the Senate race Safe D, and the board backs that up by treating Ossoff as a near lock.
Jon Ossoff (YES 94¢ / NO 7¢, -1 pts)
Ossoff gave back 1 point on the Polymarket board, but a 94¢ price, implying a 94% probability, still has plenty of room against the Ossoff vs Collins polls. The AJC poll conducted by the University of Georgia had him ahead 48% to 40% with about 12% undecided, and Quantus Insights found him up 51.8% to 44.9%.
The money gap is just as wide. Ossoff reported a $33 million haul as the race entered its final weeks, while AdImpact says the Senate Leadership Fund has canceled $7.6 million in Georgia ad reservations despite a $44 million pledge.
Mike Collins (YES 7¢ / NO 94¢)
Collins, a congressman from Georgia's 10th District, won the Republican nomination with Trump's backing in a June 16 runoff over Derek Dooley. His 7¢ price implies a 7% chance.
Trump rallied with Collins and Jackson in Dalton on October 16, and Collins is betting on turnout among Trump loyalists. The AJC poll shows the limits of that approach, with men split 43% to 43% and 13% of self-described conservatives backing Ossoff.
Georgia Governor Race 2026
The Georgia Governor race 2026 is where the board and the polls disagree, since Polymarket labels the race Lean D while the three latest surveys have Jackson narrowly ahead.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (YES 62¢ / NO 39¢, -1 pts)
Bottoms slipped 1 point but still trades at 62¢, a 62% implied probability, even though the AJC poll has her behind Jackson 46% to 45% with 8% undecided.
Enthusiasm is the case for her. In that poll 68% of Democrats called themselves very enthusiastic, compared with 48% of Republicans, and independents lean her way 43% to 38%, while early voting opened with a midterm first-day record of nearly 189,000 ballots.
Rick Jackson (YES 39¢ / NO 62¢, +1 pts)
Jackson gained 1 point to 39¢, a 39% implied probability, and the polls give him a case. InsiderAdvantage had him up 49% to 47%, Quantus Insights had him ahead by 1.6 points, and outgoing Governor Brian Kemp's approval nears 70% in the AJC survey.
He has spent at least $108 million of his own fortune to win the Republican nomination, though he skipped the Georgia Public Broadcasting debate, leaving Bottoms at an empty podium, and his campaign said he would skip Trump's Macon rally.
Georgia Senate Race 2026 and Georgia Governor Election: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts that resolve by winning party, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
The standalone boards are active, with about $3.1 million traded on the Senate market and $2.8 million on the Governor market.
Georgia Senate Race 2026
Kalshi has Ossoff a shade firmer than Polymarket, and its own margin forecast puts the Democrat ahead by 11.7 points in the Georgia Senate race 2026.
Jon Ossoff (YES 94.9¢ / NO 5.2¢, +0.3 pts)
Ossoff gained 0.3 points on Kalshi, moving the opposite way from his 1-point dip on Polymarket. A 94.9¢ price implies a 94.9% chance, and the 11.7-point forecast is wider than the 7 to 8 point leads in the newest Ossoff vs Collins polls, closer to the 10-point margin YouGov found in September.
His approval is also a tailwind, with 55% of AJC poll respondents approving of his work in the Senate and 35% disapproving.
Mike Collins (YES 5.3¢ / NO 94.9¢, -0.3 pts)
Collins slipped 0.3 points to 5.3¢, about 2¢ below his Polymarket price. Republican committees are not showing much confidence either, as Politico reported that NRSC chair Tim Scott told colleagues he was focusing money on Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas, without naming Georgia.
Georgia Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's Governor board matches Polymarket to the cent on both candidates, and its margin forecast has the Democrat ahead by 1.9 points in the Georgia Governor election.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (YES 62¢ / NO 39¢, +3 pts)
Bottoms gained 3 points on Kalshi, the biggest move on either exchange's Governor board and the opposite direction from Polymarket's 1-point dip. The 1.9-point forecast reads like a lean rather than a lock, in line with a race the AJC poll calls a statistical dead heat.
Part of her case is the ticket. Ossoff and Bottoms have held joint rallies across the state, including one in Cobb County on the first Saturday of early voting, by which point more than 796,000 ballots had been cast.
Rick Jackson (YES 39¢ / NO 62¢, -3 pts)
Jackson fell 3 points to 39¢ even though the Bottoms vs Jackson polls have not moved toward her. Quantus, InsiderAdvantage and the AJC poll all show him ahead by one or two points.
His campaign leans on Kemp, who appeared with him near Augusta and urged Republicans to bank early votes.
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Georgia Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Both exchanges let traders bet on how the two races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Democratic sweep is the clear favorite on both boards, a Jackson win paired with an Ossoff win is the next most likely at 36¢ on Polymarket and 37¢ on Kalshi, and both outcomes involving a Collins win are long shots.
Polymarket quotes both sides of all four pairings, while Kalshi's Bottoms and Collins pairing shows only a 1¢ YES price, and Kalshi's combo board is thin at roughly $102,000 in total volume.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Keisha Lance Bottoms and Jon Ossoff win (Dem sweep) | YES 58¢ | NO 43¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Rick Jackson and Jon Ossoff win (split ticket) | YES 36¢ | NO 65¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Rick Jackson and Mike Collins win (GOP sweep) | YES 5¢ | NO 96¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Keisha Lance Bottoms and Mike Collins win (split ticket) | YES 2¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Keisha Lance Bottoms and Jon Ossoff win (Dem sweep) | YES 60¢ | NO 41¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Rick Jackson and Jon Ossoff win (split ticket) | YES 37¢ | NO 66¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Rick Jackson and Mike Collins win (GOP sweep) | YES 6¢ | NO 97¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Keisha Lance Bottoms and Mike Collins win (split ticket) | YES 1¢ | N/A | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Georgia Senate Race 2026 and Georgia Governor Election
The two boards agree on every favorite. Ossoff sits at YES 94¢ on Polymarket and YES 94.9¢ on Kalshi, while Bottoms is at YES 62¢ on both.
The underdogs tell the same story in reverse. Collins trades at YES 7¢ on Polymarket and YES 5.3¢ on Kalshi, and Jackson is at YES 39¢ on both.
The one gap worth a glance is Collins, who gets about 2¢ more on Polymarket, which is small enough to read as noise rather than a signal.
The bigger divergence is between the exchanges and the surveys. Bottoms vs Jackson polls from the AJC, InsiderAdvantage and Quantus all have Jackson ahead by one or two points, yet neither board has Bottoms below YES 62¢.
Ossoff vs Collins polls tell a more consistent story, with leads of roughly 7 to 10 points across recent surveys, and a price near YES 94¢ suggests traders expect that cushion to hold.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is direction. Kalshi shows Bottoms up 3 points and Jackson down 3, while Polymarket shows Bottoms down 1 and Jackson up 1, and although both exchanges carry a combo board, only Polymarket quotes both sides of every pairing.
Georgia Senate Race 2026 and Georgia Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The two exchanges agree on price but not on momentum in the Georgia Governor election, with Kalshi pushing Bottoms up 3 points and Polymarket trimming her by 1. That split suggests traders are still working out how much weight to give a race that polling calls a tie.
That dispersion between polls and prices is the whole story. The AJC poll has Jackson ahead 46% to 45%, InsiderAdvantage has him up 49% to 47% and Quantus has him ahead by 1.6 points, but an August Quantus survey had Bottoms leading 46.4% to 44.9%, so the Bottoms vs Jackson polls have flipped back and forth inside the margin of error.
What keeps Bottoms favored is the environment. Trump's approval sits at 41% in the AJC poll, 58% of voters say the country is on the wrong track, and Democratic enthusiasm runs 20 points ahead of Republican enthusiasm.
Jackson's counterweights are money and Kemp. He has dominated television advertising, and 52% of voters say Georgia is headed in the right direction.
The Georgia Senate race 2026 board has far less to price. Ossoff's lead in the AJC poll is outside its 3.1-point margin of error, and the other Georgia senate race 2026 polls agree, while Republican groups are shifting resources elsewhere, which leaves Collins needing a polling miss.
The combo boards add one more read. On Polymarket, the Dem sweep at 58¢ plus the Jackson and Ossoff split at 36¢ adds up to exactly 94¢, matching Ossoff's Senate price, while adding the two Jackson pairings gives 41¢ on Polymarket and 43¢ on Kalshi, above his 39¢ Governor price, a gap worth discounting given how thin the combo markets are.
The next round of Georgia senate race 2026 polls and Bottoms vs Jackson polls is the likeliest trigger for a repricing, along with daily early voting totals, which have already set records. If no candidate clears 50% on November 3, the top two advance to a December 1 runoff, though with no Libertarian on the ballot that looks unlikely.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Senate Race | Polymarket | Jon Ossoff | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Georgia Senate Race | Polymarket | Mike Collins | YES (7¢) | $1,428.57 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Georgia Senate Race | Kalshi | Jon Ossoff | YES (94.9¢) | $105.37 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Georgia Senate Race | Kalshi | Mike Collins | YES (5.3¢) | $1,886.79 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Georgia Governor Race | Polymarket | Keisha Lance Bottoms | YES (62¢) | $161.29 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Georgia Governor Race | Polymarket | Rick Jackson | YES (39¢) | $256.41 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Georgia Governor Race | Kalshi | Keisha Lance Bottoms | YES (62¢) | $161.29 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Georgia Governor Race | Kalshi | Rick Jackson | YES (39¢) | $256.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Georgia Senate Race 2026 and Georgia Governor Race 2026 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
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Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Georgia Senate Race 2026 and Georgia Governor Race 2026: Final Thoughts
This is two Democratic-favored races priced with very different levels of confidence: a Georgia Senate race 2026 where Ossoff is a 94% favorite on both exchanges, and a Georgia Governor race 2026 where Bottoms is a 62% favorite even as the latest polls lean toward Jackson.
Watch the split-ticket pairing on the combo boards for the clearest read on how traders see the two races landing together, and the final round of polls and early voting turnout for the most likely trigger before November 3.
Georgia Senate Race 2026 and Georgia Governor Election FAQs
What are the current Georgia Governor race 2026 and Senate odds?
Keisha Lance Bottoms is trading at 62¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi in the Georgia Governor race 2026, with Rick Jackson at 39¢ on both. In the Senate race, Jon Ossoff is at 94¢ on Polymarket and 94.9¢ on Kalshi, while Mike Collins sits at 7¢ and 5.3¢.
What do the latest Georgia senate race 2026 polls show?
The newest surveys all have Ossoff ahead. The AJC poll conducted by the University of Georgia found him up 48% to 40%, and Quantus Insights had him ahead 51.8% to 44.9%.
How do Georgia senate race 2026 polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more confident than a 7 to 8 point polling lead alone would suggest, with Ossoff at 94¢ on Polymarket and 94.9¢ on Kalshi and Kalshi's own margin forecast at D +11.7 points.
What do the latest Ossoff vs Collins polls show?
Beyond the AJC and Quantus results, YouGov found Ossoff ahead 51% to 41% in September, and the AJC poll found men split 43% to 43% while women, Black voters and younger voters broke strongly for Ossoff.
Are Ossoff vs Collins polls tightening before Election Day?
Not clearly. Quantus found a 6.9-point margin and the AJC poll found 8 points, and both sit within the range of earlier surveys, which had Ossoff ahead by anywhere from 4 to 10 points.
What do the latest Bottoms vs Jackson polls show?
Jackson has a narrow edge in the three newest releases. The AJC poll has him up 46% to 45%, InsiderAdvantage has him ahead 49% to 47%, and Quantus Insights has him up 1.6 points, all within the margin of error.
How do Bottoms vs Jackson polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets lean the other way from the polls. Both exchanges price Bottoms at 62¢ even though the latest Bottoms vs Jackson polls show Jackson narrowly ahead, a gap that likely reflects Democratic enthusiasm, record early voting and Ossoff's strength atop the ticket.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Georgia Governor election differently?
They barely differ on price, with Bottoms at 62¢ and Jackson at 39¢ on both boards. The difference is momentum, as Kalshi shows Bottoms up 3 points while Polymarket shows her down 1.
What do the Georgia Governor-Senate combo bets show?
Polymarket prices a Democratic sweep at 58¢, a Jackson and Ossoff split at 36¢, a Republican sweep at 5¢ and a Bottoms and Collins split at 2¢. Kalshi has the same four outcomes at 60¢, 37¢, 6¢ and 1¢.
How do I trade the Georgia Senate race 2026 and Georgia Governor election odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
