Israel election odds on Kalshi make Gadi Eizenkot the favorite to become the next prime minister of Israel, with his YES contract priced at 49¢ as Israelis vote on Tuesday, Oct. 27.
The Kalshi Israel election market has topped $4.1 million in volume, and the board has moved sharply through the morning.
Incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu has slid to 12¢, while "No one" sits at 39¢ as traders price in a possible coalition stalemate.
| 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | YES (49¢) | $204.08 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| No one | YES (39¢) | $256.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | YES (12¢) | $833.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Israel election odds on Kalshi, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Kalshi promo code.
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Kalshi Israel Election Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi event contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢, and each price maps directly to an implied probability. A YES contract pays $1.00 if the outcome occurs and nothing if it doesn't, and traders can buy or sell before the market settles.
This market settles to the person formally sworn in as prime minister of Israel following the election, and an interim or caretaker prime minister does not count. That matters because Israelis vote for parties rather than candidates, so a prime minister is only sworn in after coalition talks that can run for weeks. The "No one" contract covers the scenario where the market's terms are not met, so confirm its exact language on the contract page before trading.
Gadi Eizenkot (YES 49¢ / NO 52¢, -9 pts)
Eizenkot, the former IDF chief of staff who leads the Yashar party, is the clear favorite at 49¢, a 49% implied probability, even after a 9-point dip.
The polls explain the confidence. A final Maariv survey published Oct. 23 had the opposition bloc ahead of Netanyahu's coalition 54 seats to 48, and Eizenkot beating Netanyahu 49% to 41% in a head-to-head matchup.
The catch is arithmetic. Poll averages have left the non-Arab opposition short of 61 seats, so Eizenkot would likely need an Arab party's support to govern, and he has stopped short of ruling that out.
No one (YES 39¢ / NO 62¢)
At 39¢, a 39% implied probability, "No one" is the second-biggest position on the board, and it is essentially a bet on deadlock.
Neither bloc has consistently reached 61 seats without the Arab parties, and 60% of respondents in the final Maariv poll said they would prefer a unity government if the vote produces no clear result. A long coalition fight, or another election, would leave a caretaker in office, and that does not count toward settlement.
Benjamin Netanyahu (YES 12¢ / NO 89¢, -11 pts)
Netanyahu has dropped 11 points to 12¢, a 12% implied probability, even with Likud running neck and neck with Yashar in the final polls.
The market is pricing coalition math rather than seat share. The last Maariv poll put his bloc at 48 seats, well short of the 61 needed for a majority.
His path now runs through turnout. He used election day to urge right-wing voters to the polls, citing high turnout in Arab communities, while overall turnout hit 44.9% by 2 p.m. local time, the highest at that hour since 1973.
Remaining Trading Options
The rest of the Israel election odds board is a collection of long shots, each priced at or near the floor.
- Naftali Bennett (YES 3¢ / NO 98¢, -9 pts): The former prime minister's Together alliance with Yair Lapid was overtaken by Yashar in poll averages, which has weakened his case for the top job. He still edged Netanyahu 45% to 43% head-to-head in Maariv's final poll, but seat counts are what settle this market.
- Avigdor Lieberman (YES 2¢ / NO 99¢, -2 pts): His Yisrael Beiteinu seats could matter in coalition talks, but Netanyahu led him 44% to 39% in the final Maariv head-to-head, and the market treats him as a long shot.
- Yossi Cohen (YES 1¢): The former Mossad chief sits at the floor, a 1% implied probability, with no NO price displayed.
- Yuli Edelstein (YES 1¢): Another 1¢ long shot, with no NO price displayed.
Israel Election Odds Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
The intraday chart tells the story of a market in motion. Netanyahu has fallen from roughly 24¢ in the early hours to 12¢, "No one" has climbed from around 20¢ to 39¢, and Eizenkot has held a band between the mid-40s and low 50s.
Turnout is the biggest wild card. Participation by 2 p.m. local time was the highest at that hour in more than 50 years, and Netanyahu is arguing that surging Arab turnout should motivate right-wing voters, while the opposition has its own reasons to welcome a big electorate.
Coalition arithmetic is the second force. Polls have repeatedly shown neither bloc at 61 seats without the Arab parties, which is why a unity government polls well with voters and why "No one" carries such a large price in the prime minister of Israel market.
Watch the exit polls when voting closes, and remember they are unofficial and have missed before. Official results and the president's consultations with party leaders will determine who gets the first chance to build a coalition, which could reprice this board quickly.
How to Trade Israel Election Odds on Kalshi
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes.
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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Israel Election Odds: Final Thoughts
The Kalshi Israel election market is a three-way tug of war between an Eizenkot favorite at 49¢, a Netanyahu comeback at 12¢, and a deadlock trade at 39¢. The key variable is whether either bloc can reach 61 seats, because the prime minister of Israel is only decided once a coalition is built and sworn in.
Israel Election Odds FAQs
How does the Kalshi Israel election market work?
Kalshi lists a YES/NO contract for each possible prime minister of Israel. Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢, a YES contract pays $1.00 if that outcome occurs, and you can trade in and out before the market settles.
Who is favored to be the next prime minister of Israel on Kalshi?
Gadi Eizenkot (also spelled Eisenkot), the leader of the Yashar party, is the favorite at 49¢, or 49%. "No one" is second at 39¢ and Benjamin Netanyahu is third at 12¢, based on prices at publication.
When is the Israel election?
Israelis vote on Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2026, the latest date the election could legally be held. The vote elects all 120 members of the Knesset, and 61 seats are needed for a majority.
How does the market settle?
It settles to the person formally sworn in as prime minister of Israel following the election. An interim or caretaker prime minister does not count, so settlement can take weeks or longer after election day.
What does the "No one" contract mean?
It is a bet that no one meets the market's settlement terms, which is most likely in a coalition deadlock. Check the contract's rules on Kalshi for the exact language and timing.
Why did Netanyahu's odds fall on Kalshi?
Traders are pricing coalition math. The final Maariv poll had his bloc at 48 seats against 54 for the opposition, well short of the 61 needed for a majority.
What do the latest polls say about the Israel election?
The final Maariv poll had the opposition bloc at 54 seats and Netanyahu's coalition at 48, with Eizenkot leading Netanyahu 49% to 41% head-to-head. Neither bloc has consistently reached 61 seats without the Arab parties.
How do I trade Israel election odds on Kalshi?
Create a Kalshi account, fund it, and pick a contract such as Eizenkot, Netanyahu or "No one". Choose YES or NO at the displayed price and confirm your order.
