Israel heads to the polls today in a general election widely viewed as one of the most consequential in the nation’s history, set against the backdrop of the war in Gaza and serving as a high-stakes referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Polling data suggests the vote will yield a deeply fragmented Knesset (parliament), significantly complicating the coalition-building process required to name the next prime minister. That same political gridlock is currently mirrored across major prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, creating notable trading value across the board.
Netanyahu vs Eizenkot: Who Leads the Race in Latest Polls and Prediction Markets?
More than 7.3 million Israelis are eligible to cast their ballots to elect the 120 members of the Knesset. According to final pre-election surveys, neither Netanyahu’s Likud party nor the main opposition challenger—the Yashar party, led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot—is projected to reach the decisive 61-seat parliamentary majority.
If projections hold, roughly 11 of the 38 contesting parties will clear the 3.25% electoral threshold required for parliamentary representation, making the path to a governing majority arduous or potentially unattainable.
Prediction markets reflect this division. Eizenkot currently leads the odds by a sizable margin, trading at 63 cents on Polymarket and 57 cents on Kalshi. Contracts on Netanyahu maintaining power are priced around 26 cents on Polymarket and 23 cents on Kalshi.
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett sits in third place, trading near 8 cents across both platforms. Meanwhile, a Kalshi-specific contract tracking a coalition deadlock that forces snap repeat elections is priced at 16 cents.
Israel Election Race: What Time Do Exit Polls Close, and What Happens Without a 61-Seat Majority?
Polling stations across Israel opened at 7:00 a.m. local time (1:00 a.m. ET) and are scheduled to close at 10:00 p.m. local time (4:00 p.m. ET), when national television networks will release their initial exit polls.
If exit polls and official counts confirm that neither bloc secures the 61-seat threshold required for a working Knesset majority, the process shifts directly into coalition negotiations. President Isaac Herzog will consult with party leaders and grant a 28-day mandate (with a potential 14-day extension) to the lawmaker deemed to have the best mathematical chance of forming a government.
Should that lawmaker fail to cobble together a majority—or if a second candidate also hits an impasse—the Knesset enters a final 21-day window where any parliamentarian backed by 61 signatures can attempt to form a cabinet.
If no candidate succeeds, the Knesset automatically dissolves, sending the country back to snap elections, during which Netanyahu would remain prime minister in an interim caretaker capacity.
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