Cook Political Report moved the Kansas Governor race 2026 to a toss-up on Tuesday, but Polymarket and Kalshi still price Ty Masterson at 75¢ and 74¢, respectively.
The Kansas Senate race 2026 is the tighter market on paper, with Roger Marshall at 61¢ on both exchanges and the Hamilton vs Marshall polls bunched inside the margin of error.
- Roger Marshall, Adam Hamilton, Ty Masterson and Cindy Holscher all have live Kansas Governor election and Senate contracts on both exchanges, and both platforms also list a Governor-Senate combo market.
- Masterson vs Holscher polls run from a 47-47 tie in a Democratic-aligned survey released by Holscher's campaign to an 8-point Masterson lead in co/efficient's September poll.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Kansas Governor election and Kansas Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms with six days left before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Roger Marshall | YES (61¢) | $163.93 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Adam Hamilton | YES (41¢) | $243.90 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Roger Marshall | YES (61¢) | $163.93 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Adam Hamilton | YES (40¢) | $250.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Ty Masterson | YES (75¢) | $133.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Cindy Holscher | YES (26¢) | $384.62 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Ty Masterson | YES (74¢) | $135.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Cindy Holscher | YES (26¢) | $384.62 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Kansas contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Kansas Senate market and the Kansas Governor market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election, and traders can buy or sell positions at any point before then.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price. That is an approximation in the Senate race, where Libertarian David Graham is also on the ballot.
Kansas Senate Race 2026
Polymarket tags the Senate race Lean R and prices Marshall at 61¢, a 61% implied probability, even though Cook rates the contest a toss-up and Hamilton vs Marshall polls are bunched inside the margin of error.
Roger Marshall (YES 61¢ / NO 41¢, -1 pts)
Marshall gave back 1 point, and early voting is the new variable in the final week.
More than 245,000 Kansans had voted early as of Tuesday, up about 80% from the 2022 midterm, and nearly half of Johnson County's early ballots through Saturday came from registered Democrats, against roughly 37% from Republicans.
Party registration is not vote choice, though, and Marshall still has a polling case, with Red Box Research (Oct. 20-23) and InsiderAdvantage (Oct. 13-14) both putting him ahead by a point.
Adam Hamilton (YES 41¢ / NO 61¢)
Polymarket shows no movement on Hamilton, who sits at 41¢.
In the Oct. 21 debate he cast himself as an independent-minded Democrat who would work with Republicans and independents, while Marshall invoked Chuck Schumer 17 times, according to NBC News.
Kansas hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, and a 41¢ price shows how much weight traders give that history over a polling picture this close.
Kansas Governor Race 2026
Polymarket still tags the Kansas Governor race 2026 Lean R, a step behind Cook's new toss-up rating, and prices Masterson at 75¢, a 75% implied probability.
Ty Masterson (YES 75¢ / NO 26¢, -2 pts)
Masterson lost 2 points after Cook moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up on Tuesday, citing the contest's volatility while still calling it the GOP's best chance to flip a Democratic-held governorship.
The public polling still leans his way. Emerson had him up 51-44, Times/Siena 49-44 and YouGov 47-44, and PollCheck's average of seven polls had him ahead 48.4% to 44.2% as of October 27.
Cindy Holscher (YES 26¢ / NO 75¢, +2 pts)
Holscher gained 2 points, and her case is the one Cook partly cited: a Global Strategy Group poll released by her campaign that showed a 47-47 tie among 600 likely voters from October 18 to 21.
She is also running hard against data centers, an issue where Masterson took about $1.5 million in new industry contributions, according to Kansas reporting.
A Holscher win would end a 60-year streak in which Kansas has followed each governor with one from the other party.
Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and Kalshi's Governor market has already traded $355,718 in volume.
Kansas Senate Race 2026
Kalshi matches Polymarket on Marshall at 61¢, a 61% implied probability, and its margin forecast of Republican +1.5 sits inside the margin of error of nearly every public poll.
Roger Marshall (YES 61¢ / NO 40¢, +1 pts)
Marshall gained 1 point on Kalshi, the opposite of his 1-point drop on Polymarket, so the two boards disagree on direction even though both land at 61¢.
The polling averages are just as split. RealClearPolling's two-way average had Marshall up 0.3 points, while Poliwave's average through October 23 had Hamilton ahead 46.3% to 45.9%.
Adam Hamilton (YES 40¢ / NO 61¢, -1 pts)
Hamilton lost 1 point and trades a cent below Polymarket.
Graham is the wildcard, drawing between 2% and 5% depending on the pollster, which is a bigger share than the Marshall or Hamilton lead in most of those surveys.
Emerson had Hamilton ahead 45-43 with Graham at 4%, while Times/Siena showed a 45-45 tie with Graham at 5%.
Kansas Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's margin forecast has the Republican up 4.3 points, in line with the roughly 4-point Masterson lead in public polling averages.
Ty Masterson (YES 74¢ / NO 27¢, -2 pts)
Masterson dropped 2 points on Kalshi, matching Polymarket, and 74¢ is a cent below Polymarket's price, the only gap on the Governor board.
His pitch is property tax relief, which he brands the Kansas Homeowners Bill of Rights, and he has toned down his pro-Trump messaging for the general election, according to Kansas City Public Radio.
Cindy Holscher (YES 26¢ / NO 75¢, +2 pts)
Holscher gained 2 points on Kalshi, and her 26¢ price is identical to Polymarket's.
Her message is cost of living, including property taxes she ties to underfunded special education, and she is competing with Masterson for unaffiliated and moderate voters.
The Emerson, Times/Siena and YouGov surveys that put Masterson ahead were all fielded in September or early October, before Cook's move, so the next public poll is the first real test of whether the rating change reflects voters or internal numbers.
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Kansas Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Both exchanges let traders bet on how the two races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Republican sweep is the clear favorite at 57¢ on both platforms, a Masterson win paired with a Hamilton win is next at 25¢, and the Democratic sweep trails at 19¢, with a Holscher and Marshall pairing the long shot at 3¢ to 4¢.
Both platforms price all four pairings, and the boards moved differently: Polymarket shows the GOP sweep down 1 point and the Masterson and Hamilton split up 1, while Kalshi shows the sweep down 2 and that split down 3.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Ty Masterson and Roger Marshall win (GOP sweep) | YES 57¢ | NO 44¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ty Masterson and Adam Hamilton win (split ticket) | YES 25¢ | NO 76¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Holscher and Adam Hamilton win (Dem sweep) | YES 19¢ | NO 82¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Holscher and Roger Marshall win (split ticket) | YES 4¢ | NO 97¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Ty Masterson and Roger Marshall win (GOP sweep) | YES 57¢ | NO 44¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ty Masterson and Adam Hamilton win (split ticket) | YES 25¢ | NO 77¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Holscher and Adam Hamilton win (Dem sweep) | YES 19¢ | NO 82¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Holscher and Roger Marshall win (split ticket) | YES 3¢ | NO 98¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election
The two boards agree on the favorites to within a cent. Marshall sits at YES 61¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Masterson is at YES 75¢ on Polymarket and YES 74¢ on Kalshi.
The underdogs tell the same story. Hamilton trades at YES 41¢ on Polymarket and YES 40¢ on Kalshi, and Holscher is at YES 26¢ on both, so the standalone boards differ by a single cent on only two of the four candidates.
The combo boards agree even more closely, with the GOP sweep at YES 57¢ and the Masterson and Hamilton split at YES 25¢ on both exchanges.
The bigger gap is between the exchanges and the raters. Cook now rates both Kansas races a toss-up, yet neither board has Marshall below YES 61¢ or Masterson below YES 74¢.
Hamilton vs Marshall polls have ranged from co/efficient's 5-point Marshall lead in September to YouGov's 3-point Hamilton edge, and Masterson vs Holscher polls run from Emerson's 7-point Masterson lead to the 47-47 tie in the Democratic-aligned Global Strategy Group survey.
Both platforms carry a combo market here, so the real difference is how the boards are quoted: Kalshi shows explicit YES and NO prices on both standalone races, while Polymarket quotes only each candidate's own YES price, which is why its NO prices above are derived.
Kansas Governor Election and Kansas Senate Race 2026 Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The Kansas Governor election board is the one in motion. Masterson dropped 2 points on both exchanges and Holscher gained 2 on both, a synchronized move that came after Cook shifted the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up.
That still leaves Masterson a 3-to-1 favorite at 75¢ and 74¢, and the Masterson vs Holscher polls from Emerson, Times/Siena and YouGov explain why: all three had him ahead, by 7, 5 and 3 points, respectively.
The Kansas Senate race 2026 board is a split decision. Marshall slipped 1 point on Polymarket and gained 1 on Kalshi, and both exchanges end at 61¢, which fits a race where the polling averages disagree on who is ahead, each by less than half a point.
Turnout is the new variable. More than 245,000 Kansans had voted early as of Tuesday, up about 80% from 2022, and Johnson County topped 108,000 ballots by the eighth day of early voting, with 89,000 cast in person, a 60% increase from the same point in 2022.
Early voting can also pull ballots forward from Election Day rather than add new voters, so the turnout surge is a signal to watch, not a verdict.
The combo board adds one more read. Adding the two Masterson pairings gives 82¢ on both exchanges for a Masterson win, above his 75¢ and 74¢ Governor prices, and the two Hamilton pairings give 44¢, above his 41¢ and 40¢ Senate prices.
The four combo YES prices add up to 105¢ on Polymarket and 104¢ on Kalshi, so a few cents of gap is expected and worth discounting.
The next batch of Hamilton vs Marshall polls and Masterson vs Holscher polls is the likeliest trigger for a repricing, along with the final days of early voting, which end at noon Monday in Johnson County.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Roger Marshall | YES (61¢) | $163.93 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Adam Hamilton | YES (41¢) | $243.90 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Roger Marshall | YES (61¢) | $163.93 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Adam Hamilton | YES (40¢) | $250.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Ty Masterson | YES (75¢) | $133.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Cindy Holscher | YES (26¢) | $384.62 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Ty Masterson | YES (74¢) | $135.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Cindy Holscher | YES (26¢) | $384.62 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026: Final Thoughts
This is two Republican-favored boards with very different feelings behind them: the Kansas Senate race 2026, where Hamilton vs Marshall polls are a coin flip and both exchanges still have Marshall at 61¢, and the Kansas Governor election, which Cook just called a toss-up while traders still hand Masterson 75¢ and 74¢.
Watch the combo board for the clearest read on how traders see the two races landing together. A Republican sweep at 57¢ is the dominant outcome on both exchanges, a Masterson and Hamilton split at 25¢ is the live alternative, and turnout plus the final polls are the likeliest things to change the picture before November 3.
Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election FAQs
What are the current Kansas Senate race 2026 odds?
Roger Marshall is trading at 61¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Adam Hamilton sits at 41¢ on Polymarket and 40¢ on Kalshi.
What are the current Kansas Governor race 2026 odds?
Ty Masterson is trading at 75¢ on Polymarket and 74¢ on Kalshi, while Cindy Holscher sits at 26¢ on both.
What do the latest Hamilton vs Marshall polls show?
The polls are tight. YouGov has Hamilton ahead 48-45 and Emerson has him up 45-43, Times/Siena and Trafalgar had ties, Red Box Research has Marshall up 46-45 from October 20 to 23, InsiderAdvantage had Marshall up 48-47 on October 13 and 14, and co/efficient had Marshall up 49-44 in September.
What do the latest Masterson vs Holscher polls show?
Emerson has Masterson ahead 51-44, Times/Siena has him up 49-44, YouGov has him up 47-44 and co/efficient had him up 51-43 in September, while a Democratic-aligned Global Strategy Group poll released by Holscher's campaign shows a 47-47 tie from October 18 to 21.
How do Hamilton vs Marshall polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more confident than the polling averages suggest, with both exchanges keeping Marshall at 61¢ even though the averages have the two candidates within a point of each other.
Are Masterson vs Holscher polls tightening before Election Day?
The picture is mixed. Cook moved the race to a toss-up on Tuesday, citing its volatility, and both exchanges moved Holscher up 2 points to 26¢, but the Emerson, Times/Siena and YouGov polls that have Masterson ahead by 3 to 7 points were all fielded before that.
Do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Kansas Governor election differently?
Barely. Masterson is 75¢ on Polymarket and 74¢ on Kalshi, and Holscher is 26¢ on both. In the Senate race, Hamilton is 41¢ on Polymarket and 40¢ on Kalshi, which usually reflects different trader bases and order-book depth.
What do the Kansas Governor-Senate combo bets show?
Polymarket prices a Masterson and Marshall sweep at 57¢, a Masterson and Hamilton split at 25¢, a Holscher and Hamilton sweep at 19¢ and a Holscher and Marshall split at 4¢. Kalshi has the same four outcomes at 57¢, 25¢, 19¢ and 3¢.
When does early voting end for the Kansas Governor election?
In-person early voting in Johnson County ends at noon on Monday, November 2, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. More than 245,000 Kansans had already voted early as of Tuesday, October 27.
How do I trade the Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026 odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the Kansas Senate race 2026 or Kansas Governor race 2026 contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
