Dancing with the Stars sent two couples home on Horror Movie Night, with Jackson Olson and Emma Slater and Tyler Cameron and Sharna Burgess eliminated on Tuesday, Oct. 27. The double elimination followed a Dedication Night that ended with no one going home. Eight couples remain, and Ezra Frech and Daniella Karagach sit at 62% to win the Mirrorball Trophy on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Who's Already Left the Ballroom: Season 35 Elimination Recap
- Conner Leavitt & Adele Zaikman (premiere, Sept. 15)
- Sarah Jane Nader & Hailey Bills (premiere, Sept. 16)
- Giada De Laurentiis & Alan Bersten (Week 2)
- Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart (Week 3)
- Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong (Week 4)
- Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson (Week 5)
- Week 6 Dedication Night: no elimination
- Jackson Olson & Emma Slater (Week 7, double elimination)
- Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess (Week 7, double elimination)
Guest judge Shirley Ballas handed out sharply polarized scores on Tuesday, and Val Chmerkovskiy returned after a one-week suspension. Olson scored 35/40 and still went home, while Cameron's 26/40 tied Julia Stiles for the lowest mark of the night.
DWTS Season 35 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts to Win the Mirrorball
Kalshi's event contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢, and each price doubles as the market's implied probability. A "Yes" contract pays $1 if that celebrity wins the Season 35 Mirrorball Trophy, with resolution tied to the Nov. 24 finale. The winner market has more than $6.8 million in total volume.
Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach (62%, Yes 62¢ / No 39¢, -1 pt)
Frech is the runaway favorite after sitting in the high teens through mid-September and climbing to around 60% by early October. He scored 35/40 for a jazz to "Madness" inspired by The Invisible Man, and his 72/80 combined total ranks fourth. Traders shaved just 1 point off the price.
Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov (16%, Yes 16¢ / No 85¢, +1 pt)
Glenn is the clear second choice. The Olympic figure skater earned 36/40 for an Argentine tango to "Perfection" inspired by Black Swan, and her 74/80 combined total is tied for second. Carrie Ann Inaba cautioned her about stillness in the shoulders, but the market still nudged her up.
Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy (6%, Yes 7¢ / No 94¢, +1 pt)
Dewan scored 37/40 for an Argentine tango to "Uninvited" inspired by zombie movies, and she ties Glenn at 74/80 combined. The contract gained a point, but 7¢ is still a long shot against a 62% favorite.
- Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas (6%, -2 pts): A 32/40 for a contemporary inspired by The Lost Boys left her 67/80 combined, and traders trimmed the price.
- Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson (5%, +1 pt): They earned the first perfect 40 of the season and lead the combined leaderboard at 76/80, yet the contract barely moved.
- Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold (3%, +1 pt): A 37/40 contemporary inspired by Annabelle: Creation put him at 69/80 combined.
- Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa (2%, -3 pts): A 26/40 Argentine tango and a 62/80 combined total drove the biggest Kalshi drop on the board.
- Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik (<1%, Yes 1¢): A 28/40 on Tuesday keeps her at the bottom of the contenders.
Here is what a $100 position on each winner contract would return in profit if it settles "Yes," before any fees.
| Couple | Pick | Profit on $100 | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach | Ezra Frech | Winner Yes (62¢) | $61.29 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov | Amber Glenn | Winner Yes (16¢) | $525.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy | Jenna Dewan | Winner Yes (7¢) | $1,328.57 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas | Maura Higgins | Winner Yes (6¢) | $1,566.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson | Harry Shum Jr. | Winner Yes (5¢) | $1,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold | Connor Wood | Winner Yes (3¢) | $3,233.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa | Julia Stiles | Winner Yes (3¢) | $3,233.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik | Tatyana Ali | Winner Yes (1¢) | $9,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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DWTS Season 35 Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts to Win the Mirrorball
Polymarket uses the same 1¢ to 99¢ structure, and each "Yes" share pays $1 if that celebrity wins the Mirrorball Trophy. The market shows $92,314 in total volume with an end date of Dec. 30, 2026. The headline percentage can sit below the "Yes" buy price, so both figures are listed below.
Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach (62%, Yes 63¢ / No 40¢, -1 pt)
Polymarket matches Kalshi on Frech, pricing him at 62% after a 1-point dip. His contract is also the busiest on the board with $24,154 in volume. At 63¢, a "Yes" share implies roughly a 63% chance that the Paralympian lifts the trophy.
Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov (16%, Yes 17¢ / No 85¢, -2 pts)
Glenn lost 2 points here even though she gained 1 on Kalshi. Her 36/40 was the fourth-best score on Horror Movie Night, and her contract has traded $14,088. She remains the only contender above 6%.
Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold (5%, Yes 6.8¢ / No 96.4¢, +3 pts)
Wood is the biggest riser on Polymarket. His 37/40 contemporary tied for the second-highest score of the night, a notable step up after he was called the most improved dancer the week before. That is a bigger jump than Kalshi gave him, and it comes on just $7,217 in volume.
- Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy (5%, Yes 5.9¢, +1 pt): A 37/40 and a 74/80 combined total tied her for second on the leaderboard.
- Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson (5%, Yes 5.7¢, +1 pt): A perfect 40/40 for a contemporary inspired by Saw gave them the top combined score at 76/80.
- Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas (5%, Yes 6¢, -5 pts): A 32/40 contributed to the steepest drop on the board.
- Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa (4%, Yes 6.0¢, unchanged): Her 26/40 did not move the price, though her contract has traded just $751.
- Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik (1%, Yes 1.5¢): A 28/40 keeps her near the bottom of the board.
- Jackson Olson & Emma Slater (1%, Yes 2.4¢): Eliminated Tuesday, but the contract is still listed on this board.
Here is what a $100 position on each winner contract would return in profit if it settles "Yes," before any fees.
| Couple | Pick | Profit on $100 | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach | Ezra Frech | Winner Yes (63¢) | $58.73 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov | Amber Glenn | Winner Yes (17¢) | $488.24 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold | Connor Wood | Winner Yes (6.8¢) | $1,370.59 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy | Jenna Dewan | Winner Yes (5.9¢) | $1,594.92 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson | Harry Shum Jr. | Winner Yes (5.7¢) | $1,654.39 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas | Maura Higgins | Winner Yes (6¢) | $1,566.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa | Julia Stiles | Winner Yes (6¢) | $1,566.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik | Tatyana Ali | Winner Yes (1.5¢) | $6,566.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
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How Kalshi and Polymarket Compare on the DWTS Season 35 Winner Market
The two exchanges agree on the big picture. Frech is 62% on both, Glenn is 16% on both, and Shum Jr. is 5% on both.
The gaps show up lower on the board. Polymarket has Wood at 5% to Kalshi's 3% and Stiles at 4% to Kalshi's 2%, while Kalshi is a point higher on Dewan and Higgins. Higgins also fell 5 points on Polymarket versus 2 on Kalshi, and Stiles dropped 3 on Kalshi but did not move on Polymarket.
Liquidity is the likely reason. Kalshi's market has more than 70 times the volume of Polymarket's, so its prices are harder to push around, while single trades can shift thin Polymarket contracts like Stiles at $751. Olson only appears on the Polymarket screenshot, so he is a leftover listing and not a true price gap.
DWTS Season 35 Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
The most telling price action belongs to Shum Jr. He earned the first perfect score of the season and moved up just 1 point on each exchange, which suggests traders are weighting the fan vote more heavily than the judges' leaderboard. Frech's audience reaction has been a season-long storyline, and his price has barely reacted to a 35/40 night.
The biggest drops came from the lowest scores. Higgins fell 5 points on Polymarket and 2 on Kalshi after her 32/40, and Stiles lost 3 points on Kalshi after a 26/40 Argentine tango that judges felt was held back. Wood was the Polymarket buyer's pick, climbing 3 points after tying for second on the night.
This board is not locked yet. Four Tuesday episodes remain before the Nov. 24 finale, and the show has already mixed a no-elimination night with a double elimination in consecutive weeks. A repeat of that kind of twist, or a late surge from Glenn or Dewan at 74/80, could shift the price of a favorite that now sits at nearly two-in-three.
How to Trade DWTS Season 35 Winner Odds on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code ACTION55 when signing up to Trade $25, Get $55!
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code ACTION when signing up to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
