Lionel Messi takes the Argentina shirt one final time tonight. The Albiceleste host Benin at Estadio Monumental in Buenos Aires in a farewell friendly that caps a 20-plus-year international career for the sport's biggest name.
Prediction markets already price the occasion, and Argentina enters as a massive favorite on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Below, we break down the full market, including goalscorer props, and show you how to claim bonuses on both platforms before kickoff.
For a full breakdown of the matchup itself, check out our Argentina vs. Benin prediction. For more matches across the sport, visit our soccer hub.
Quick Hits Before Kickoff
- Kickoff hits at 8 p.m. local time (7 p.m. ET) at Estadio Monumental
- Argentina sits as a heavy moneyline favorite on both major prediction markets
- Kalshi offers the deepest menu of Messi goalscorer props
- New users grab a bonus on Kalshi with code ACTION2000 and on Polymarket with code ACTION
Lionel Messi Odds on Kalshi
Kalshi runs the most detailed goalscorer menu for this match, giving traders several ways to back Messi directly. Here's how the contracts price out:
| Market | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
| Argentina moneyline | 98% |
| Messi to score 1+ goal | 89% |
| Messi to score 2+ goals | 63% |
| Messi to score 3+ goals | 38% |
| Messi to score 4+ goals | 17% |
These numbers reflect a lineup Argentina builds around sending Messi off in style. Benin ranks outside FIFA's top 90 and has little incentive to play conservatively against a side celebrating a legend, which pushes this market toward an open, attacking match.
Claim the Kalshi Bonus Before Kickoff
New Kalshi users unlock up to $2,000 in bonus value with code ACTION2000. Here's how to grab it:
- Create a Kalshi account through our Kalshi promo code link
- Enter code ACTION2000 during signup
- Fund your account and place a contract on tonight's match
- Track your bonus value inside the Kalshi app
Kalshi operates as a regulated exchange, so eligibility runs state by state. The promo currently applies in AK, AL, AR, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, ME, MN, MO, MS, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV, and WY.
Lionel Messi Odds on Polymarket
Polymarket carries the same Argentina moneyline near a near-lock price, with the contract sitting at 99% for an Argentina win or draw-proof outcome heading into tonight's match.
| Market | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
| Argentina moneyline | 99% |
Polymarket doesn't list individual Messi goalscorer contracts for this match as of this writing, so traders chasing specific goal props get more contract variety on Kalshi. Polymarket still lets you trade the match outcome itself, and its growing menu makes it worth a look for future Argentina and broader soccer markets.
Claim the Polymarket Bonus Before Kickoff
- Sign up through our Polymarket promo code link
- Apply code ACTION at signup
- Deposit $10 and get a $25 trading bonus
- Place your position on the match
Polymarket's bonus applies in the same state list as Kalshi: AK, AL, AR, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, ME, MN, MO, MS, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV, and WY.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket for Tonight's Match
| Feature | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina moneyline | 98% | 99% |
| Messi goalscorer props | Yes (1+, 2+, 3+, 4+) | Not listed |
| Promo code | ACTION2000 | ACTION |
| Bonus structure | Up to $2,000 in bonus value | $25 bonus on a $10 deposit |
Traders who want to lean into Messi's farewell with goal-based contracts get more granular options on Kalshi. Those who prefer a straightforward match-result position find a similar price on Polymarket.
How to Trade Messi's Farewell Match
- Pick a platform based on the contracts you want (goal props favor Kalshi; straight moneyline works on either)
- Create an account and apply the relevant promo code
- Fund your account with your opening deposit
- Search tonight's matchup inside the app
- Place your contract ahead of the 8 p.m. local kickoff
Prices shift as the market reacts to lineup news and early action, so lock in your position once you settle on a number.
More Ways to Get Set for Tonight
- Platform deep dive: Kalshi review
- Platform deep dive: Polymarket review
- Every active discount: best prediction market promos
- App comparisons: best prediction market apps
FAQ
Where do I find Lionel Messi odds for tonight's match? Kalshi lists the deepest set of goalscorer markets, including four separate thresholds. Polymarket covers the Argentina moneyline but doesn't carry individual Messi props for this match yet.
Does Messi start the match? Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni builds the lineup around giving Messi a proper send-off in front of the home crowd, with the captain's armband passing to Cristian Romero afterward.
How big of a favorite is Argentina? Argentina prices as a near-lock favorite on both platforms, with Kalshi at 98% and Polymarket at 99% for the moneyline.
Can I bet on Messi scoring a specific number of goals? Yes, on Kalshi. The platform breaks the goalscorer market into four tiers: 1+, 2+, 3+, and 4+ goals, each with its own price.
What's the deposit bonus on each platform? Kalshi offers up to $2,000 in bonus value with code ACTION2000. Polymarket offers a $25 bonus on a $10 deposit with code ACTION.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
