The Maine Senate race 2026 polls have swung toward Democrat Troy Jackson in the final week, and Polymarket and Kalshi both price him as roughly a 2-to-1 favorite over Republican Susan Collins.
The Maine governor election is far less competitive, with Democrat Hannah Pingree at 97¢ on Polymarket and 96.6¢ on Kalshi against Republican Bobby Charles and independent Rick Bennett.
Polls close at 8 p.m. on Tuesday, November 3, and Polymarket also runs Margin of Victory brackets on both contests that tell you how big traders think each win will be.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Maine Senate race and Maine Governor race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before the first results come in.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine Senate Race | Polymarket | Troy Jackson | YES (69¢) | $144.93 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Maine Senate Race | Polymarket | Susan Collins | YES (33¢) | $303.03 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Maine Senate Race | Kalshi | Troy Jackson | YES (68¢) | $147.06 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Maine Senate Race | Kalshi | Susan Collins | YES (33¢) | $303.03 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Maine Governor Race | Polymarket | Hannah Pingree | YES (97¢) | $103.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Maine Governor Race | Polymarket | Bobby Charles | YES (5¢) | $2,000.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Maine Governor Race | Kalshi | Hannah Pingree | YES (96.6¢) | $103.52 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Maine Governor Race | Kalshi | Bobby Charles | YES (3.9¢) | $2,564.10 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Maine Senate Race and Maine Governor Race Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Maine contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both winner markets resolve on the result of the November 3 general election, and the Polymarket board lists results as expected at 8 p.m. on Election Night.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their main opponent's quoted Yes price. Treat them as approximations, especially in the Governor race, where independent Rick Bennett is also on the ballot.
Maine Senate Race 2026
Polymarket gives Jackson about a 2-to-1 edge, a notable vote of confidence for a Democrat in a state where the party hasn't won a Senate election since 1988.
Troy Jackson (YES 69¢ / NO 33¢, -4 pts)
Jackson gave back 4 points on the board even though the final Maine Senate race 2026 polls were the best of his campaign.
The New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena survey, fielded Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, had him at 51% and ahead by 6, a nine-point swing from a September edition in which Collins led by 3.
UNH's Pine Tree State Poll had Jackson up 54-45 and YouGov had him ahead 52-47, so the Troy Jackson vs Susan Collins polls now point in one direction even if the price doesn't.
Susan Collins (YES 33¢ / NO 69¢, +5 pts)
Collins gained 5 points, and her price reflects something public polls can't capture: a record of beating them.
In 2020, Sara Gideon led nearly every public poll and Collins still won by 8.6 points. She is also the only Republican senator up for re-election in a state Kamala Harris carried in 2024, and she and her allies held a large spending advantage through most of this race.
Maine Governor Race
The Governor board is far more lopsided, with Polymarket treating Pingree as a near-certain successor to outgoing Gov. Janet Mills.
Hannah Pingree (YES 97¢ / NO 5¢, +1 pts)
Pingree added 1 point, and the Pingree vs Charles polls have mostly held steady, with one exception.
NYT/Siena has her ahead 49-37 with Bennett at 8%, UNH's Pine Tree State Poll has her up 51-40, and Rasmussen's Oct. 27 to Nov. 2 survey shows 50-39. She also leads Charles by 26 points among unenrolled voters in the Siena poll.
Bobby Charles (YES 5¢ / NO 97¢)
Charles is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket against 3.9¢ on Kalshi, the widest gap between the two boards on any contract.
His best argument is affordability and accountability, and he has tried to tie Pingree to Mills over high energy prices. The one bright spot in the polling is a Marist survey from last month that had the two tied at 44%.
Maine Senate Race and Maine Governor Election Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, and both resolve by winning party.
The Senate market has topped $22.2 million in volume, while the Governor market sits near $417,000, a sign of where trader attention is concentrated.
Maine Senate Race 2026
Kalshi's own margin forecast has Jackson up 2.3 points, a narrower cushion than most of the final polls.
Troy Jackson (YES 68¢ / NO 33¢, -5 pts)
Jackson's price fell 5 points after peaking above 70% in the final week, so the market has been trimming him even as the polling firmed up.
The Troy Jackson vs Susan Collins polls from CNN (Oct. 20-26) and Marist (Oct. 22-25) had him ahead 49-45 and 49-47, which fits Kalshi's smaller forecast margin better than the 6-point Siena result does.
Susan Collins (YES 33¢ / NO 68¢, +5 pts)
Collins gained 5 points on Kalshi and sits at the same 33¢ as on Polymarket.
Her path runs through the same Maine voters who gave her crossover support in September. The latest Siena poll found that cushion shrinking, with Collins pulling less support from Democrats than Jackson gets from Republicans.
Maine Governor Election
Kalshi's Maine governor election board is nearly as lopsided as Polymarket's, and its margin forecast has the Democrat ahead by 14.5 points.
Hannah Pingree (YES 96.6¢ / NO 3.7¢, -0.6 pts)
Pingree slipped 0.6 points, a rounding error against the 11 to 12 point lead in the three most recent Pingree vs Charles polls.
She has raised roughly $5 million, a comfortable fundraising edge, and Siena found her base among Democrats solidified.
Bobby Charles (YES 3.9¢ / NO 96.3¢, -0.1 pts)
Charles dipped 0.1 points, and his price implies a roughly 1-in-26 shot at the Blaine House.
He needs the Marist-style tie to be the real picture and the other pollsters to be wrong, which would take a far bigger polling miss than the Senate race requires of Collins.
Kalshi also lists a third contract on the Governor board:
- Rick Bennett (YES 1¢): The independent and former state Republican Party chair has held steady at 7% to 8% in polling and struggled to gain traction, so the market treats him as a long shot.
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Maine Senate Race and Governor Race Combo Bets
Both exchanges let traders bet on how the two Maine races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Democratic sweep is the clear favorite on both boards at 71¢, a Pingree win paired with a Collins win is next, and both Charles pairings are long shots. Polymarket quotes a NO price on three of its four outcomes, Kalshi on two, and Kalshi's combo market is thin at roughly $71,000 in volume.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Hannah Pingree and Troy Jackson win (Dem sweep) | YES 71¢ | NO 30¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Hannah Pingree and Susan Collins win (split ticket) | YES 26¢ | NO 75¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Bobby Charles and Susan Collins win (GOP sweep) | YES 3¢ | NO 98¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Bobby Charles and Troy Jackson win (split ticket) | YES 1¢ | NO n/a | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Hannah Pingree and Troy Jackson win (Dem sweep) | YES 71¢ | NO 31¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Hannah Pingree and Susan Collins win (split ticket) | YES 29¢ | NO 72¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Bobby Charles and Susan Collins win (GOP sweep) | YES 2¢ | NO n/a | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Bobby Charles and Troy Jackson win (split ticket) | YES 1¢ | NO n/a | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Maine Senate Race and Maine Governor Race Margin of Victory Markets on Polymarket
Polymarket's Margin of Victory tabs sit under each race and slice the result into party-and-margin brackets, so traders can bet on how big a win will be rather than just who wins.
The Senate brackets are 3 points wide (0-3%, 3-6%, 6-9% and up), while the Governor brackets are 5 points wide. The Kalshi boards in this piece have no equivalent bracketed market, though their margin forecasts of D+2.3 and D+14.5 offer a useful yardstick.
Maine Senate Race 2026 Margin of Victory
The Senate bracket on the board is the Republican side of the ledger, which makes it the most interesting quote in this section.
Republicans by 3-6% (YES 37¢, +31 pts)
A 37¢ quote on a Collins win of 3 to 6 points sits above the 33¢ the main board gives her to win at all, which a single bracket shouldn't exceed. It reads as a thin-book quote that may not reflect where trades actually clear, so check the live board before trading it.
For context, the NYT/Siena Jackson lead of 6 sits on the line between the 3-6% and 6-9% brackets, and the RealClearPolling average of 3.3 would map to the 3-6% range, both on the Democratic side.
Maine Governor Race Margin of Victory
The Governor bracket on the board is a Democratic blowout, and it is a far more coherent price than the Senate one.
Democrats by 15-20% (YES 40¢, +33 pts)
Pingree's final polls sit between 11 and 12 points, so a 15 to 20 point win asks her to beat them by several points. Kalshi's 14.5-point margin forecast sits just under the bottom edge of that bracket, which is why 40¢ is a reasonable number.
The bracket is worth watching in the early returns, since a margin that clears 15 points would beat every poll released in the final week.
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Maine Senate Race and Maine Governor Race
The two boards agree on every favorite. Jackson sits at YES 69¢ on Polymarket and YES 68¢ on Kalshi, while Pingree is at YES 97¢ and YES 96.6¢, respectively.
The underdogs tell the same story in reverse. Collins trades at YES 33¢ on both exchanges, and Charles is at YES 5¢ on Polymarket and YES 3.9¢ on Kalshi.
The widest gap is Charles, at about 1¢, and it comes down to spread. Polymarket's Yes quotes in each race add up to 102¢ and Kalshi's add up to roughly 100.5¢ to 101¢, so a lot of the difference between the boards is simply how much cushion each exchange builds into its quotes.
The bigger divergence is between the exchanges and the polls. The Troy Jackson vs Susan Collins polls run from Marist's 2-point lead to UNH's 9, yet Collins still holds YES 33¢ on both platforms, a premium traders are attaching to her 2020 record of beating her polls.
The combo boards line up closely too. A Pingree and Jackson sweep is YES 71¢ on both exchanges, while the Pingree and Collins split is YES 26¢ on Polymarket and YES 29¢ on Kalshi.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is in how they show margin. Polymarket offers Margin of Victory brackets, while Kalshi publishes a margin forecast on each race.
Maine Senate Race and Maine Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The Maine Senate race 2026 polls and the market disagree in only one contest here. Jackson posted his best numbers of the cycle, yet Polymarket shaved 4 points off him and Kalshi shaved 5, with no single news event to explain it.
The likeliest reason is memory. Gideon's 2020 collapse is the reason Collins still carries a 33¢ price against a Siena poll that has her down 6, and traders appear unwilling to pay full freight for a Democrat in a state where the polls have misled before.
Turnout adds a second variable. Maine's Secretary of State reported more than 275,000 absentee ballots returned and accepted as of Oct. 29, and Call the Map's read of the state file puts the early vote at 43% above the same point in 2022, with Democrats at 47% of ballots by party registration, Republicans at 23% and unaffiliated and other voters at 30%.
The combo boards echo the same hesitation. Kalshi's Pingree and Jackson sweep fell 5 points on its Chance reading, matching Jackson's standalone move, and a 71¢ sweep price on both exchanges sits above Jackson's own 68¢ to 69¢, which a joint outcome shouldn't exceed. Read that gap as spread and thin books rather than a signal.
The Maine governor election carries far less risk. Pingree vs Charles polls have landed between 11 and 12 points in the three newest surveys, and the Marist tie is the lone outlier.
Polls close at 8 p.m. and absentee ballots must reach municipal clerks by then, so the first results should follow shortly after. That is the likeliest trigger for a fast repricing on both boards.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine Senate Race | Polymarket | Troy Jackson | YES (69¢) | $144.93 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Maine Senate Race | Polymarket | Susan Collins | YES (33¢) | $303.03 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Maine Senate Race | Kalshi | Troy Jackson | YES (68¢) | $147.06 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Maine Senate Race | Kalshi | Susan Collins | YES (33¢) | $303.03 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Maine Governor Race | Polymarket | Hannah Pingree | YES (97¢) | $103.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Maine Governor Race | Polymarket | Bobby Charles | YES (5¢) | $2,000.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Maine Governor Race | Kalshi | Hannah Pingree | YES (96.6¢) | $103.52 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Maine Governor Race | Kalshi | Bobby Charles | YES (3.9¢) | $2,564.10 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Maine Senate Race and Maine Governor Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Maine Senate Race 2026 Polls and Maine Governor Race: Final Thoughts
This is two races with two very different shapes: a Senate contest in which Jackson leads every recent survey but Collins still trades at 33¢, and a Governor contest in which the polls and the market agree that Pingree is a near-certainty.
Watch the Margin of Victory brackets and the Governor-Senate combo boards for the clearest read on how traders see the night unfolding, and expect the first returns after 8 p.m. to reprice both boards quickly.
Maine Senate Race and Maine Governor Race FAQs
What are the current Maine Senate race odds?
Troy Jackson is trading at 69¢ on Polymarket and 68¢ on Kalshi, while Susan Collins sits at 33¢ on both exchanges. Maine polls close at 8 p.m. on Election Day, November 3.
What do the latest Maine senate race 2026 polls show?
The final stretch of Maine senate race 2026 polls favors Jackson. The New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll has him up 51% to 45%, UNH has him ahead 54-45, YouGov has him up 52-47 and Marist has him up 49-47.
What do the latest Troy Jackson vs Susan Collins polls show?
Jackson leads in every survey from the past two weeks, with margins from 2 points in Marist to 9 points in UNH. RealClearPolling's average of recent polls had him ahead by 3.3 points on November 1.
What do the latest Pingree vs Charles polls show?
Hannah Pingree leads Bobby Charles by 12 points in NYT/Siena (49-37), 11 in UNH (51-40) and 11 in Rasmussen (50-39), with independent Rick Bennett at 7% to 8%. A Marist poll from last month had the two tied at 44%.
How do Troy Jackson vs Susan Collins polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are less confident than the polls. Jackson leads by 2 to 9 points in recent surveys, but the exchanges still give Collins a 33% chance, partly because she beat a polling deficit in 2020.
Who is favored in the Maine governor election?
Pingree is a heavy favorite at 97¢ on Polymarket and 96.6¢ on Kalshi, while Charles trades at 5¢ and 3.9¢. Kalshi also lists Bennett at 1¢.
What are the Polymarket Margin of Victory markets for Maine?
They are bracketed markets on how large a win will be. The brackets on the board show Republicans by 3-6% in the Senate race at 37¢ and Democrats by 15-20% in the Governor race at 40¢.
What do the Maine Senate and Governor combo bets show?
Both exchanges price a Pingree and Jackson Democratic sweep at 71¢. A Pingree and Collins split ticket is 26¢ on Polymarket and 29¢ on Kalshi.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Maine governor race slightly differently?
The boards are close, with Pingree at 97¢ versus 96.6¢. The gap mostly reflects spreads and order-book depth, since Polymarket's Yes quotes in each race add up to 102¢ and Kalshi's to roughly 100.5¢ to 101¢.
How do I trade the Maine Senate race and Maine Governor race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market before the result is final.
