Want in on the biggest late swing of the midterms? Claim Kalshi promo code ACTION55 and collect a $55 bonus on one of the top prediction markets as Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall goes to voters, with polls open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time today.
Hamilton, a Methodist minister, flipped Kalshi’s board in the final week and now trades as the favorite to end a Democratic Senate drought that dates to 1932. Marshall, the first-term Republican incumbent, closed with President Donald Trump’s final midterm rally in Salina on Sunday.
Check our Kansas Senate race odds and polls, read the Kalshi review, and follow the Action Network politics hub for live updates. Hamilton holds the momentum, Marshall holds the history, and your $55 bonus funds a front-row seat to both.
Kalshi Promo Code ACTION55 Overview for Kansas Senate Traders
| Kalshi welcome offer | Trade $25, Get $55 |
| Kalshi promo code | ACTION55 |
| US Midterm Race | Kansas Senate race |
| Polls Open in KS | 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time today |
| Prices with Kalshi | Hamilton 63¢, Marshall 38¢ |
| Current rating | Toss-up; nonpartisan forecasters split |
Compare more bonuses on our best prediction market promos page or browse the best prediction market apps.
Who Is Going to Win the Kansas Senate Race?
Kalshi prices Hamilton at 63¢ and Marshall at 38¢, and each price doubles as a chance: 63¢ means 63%. Hamilton jumped 12¢ on the latest move after trading at just 40¢ last Wednesday, a 23-point climb in under a week. Marshall held 75% or better from February into September, peaking at 91%, before sliding through October.
| Candidate | Yes Price | Latest Move |
| Adam Hamilton (D) | 63¢ | Up 12¢ |
| Roger Marshall (R) | 38¢ | Down 12¢ |
Late surveys swung hard toward Hamilton, with one showing a 9-point lead weeks after another had Marshall ahead by a point. Trump also canceled a Saturday rally in Salina, then rescheduled it for Sunday, and early-vote turnout in Johnson County ran about 50% ahead of 2022.
Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century, and Republicans have won every recent Senate race comfortably:
| Year | Winner | Margin |
| 2010 | Jerry Moran (R) | R+44 |
| 2014 | Pat Roberts (R) | R+10.6 (over an independent) |
| 2016 | Jerry Moran (R) | R+30 |
| 2020 | Roger Marshall (R) | R+11.4 |
| 2022 | Jerry Moran (R) | R+23.2 |
The last Democrat to win a Kansas Senate race was George McGill, a Wichita lawyer. He captured a 1930 special election after Charles Curtis left the seat to become vice president, then won a full term in 1932 with 46% of the vote as Franklin D. Roosevelt swept the nation.
McGill lost in 1938, and Republicans have held both Kansas seats ever since, the longest active one-party Senate streak in the country. A Hamilton win tonight ends that 94-year run and gives Kansas its first split Senate delegation since 1939. It also adds a surprise seat to the national fight for Senate control.
Polls have underestimated Kansas Republicans before. In 2014, an independent challenger surged in surveys before Roberts won by about 11. In 2020, final surveys showed Marshall up about 6 before he won by 11.4.
Recent public surveys show Hamilton ahead by anywhere from 1 to 9 points, and polling averages put the gap near 3. Hamilton polls between 49% and 52%, while Marshall ranges from 43% to 49%. Libertarian David Graham draws 3% to 4%, enough to swing a race this tight.
One recent survey found early voters backing Hamilton 66% to 32%, while voters who had not yet cast ballots favored Marshall 48% to 45%.
What Is Happening in the Kansas Senate Race?
Kansas turned into one of the most surprising Senate fights of the midterms in the final month. Hamilton calls himself a centrist, says his first presidential vote went to Ronald Reagan, and has registered as a Republican, a Democrat and an independent. Marshall, who won the seat in 2020, has run on tax cuts, border security and putting Kansas farmers first.
Trump’s two visits framed the closing stretch. He rallied in Park City on Oct. 19, canceled a Saturday stop in Salina, then returned Sunday for what he called his 30th and final midterm rally. Marshall told a crowd of more than 2,000 that Hamilton is too liberal for Kansas, and Hamilton answered with a video aimed at Trump voters.
Republicans treat the threat seriously, with national reporting describing tens of millions of dollars in GOP spending driven by internal polling. Fundraising between the candidates stays close, with Marshall at $4.8 million raised against $4.2 million for Hamilton. Hamilton draws far more of his money from small donors.
Hamilton's strength sits in the Kansas City suburbs, where Johnson County passed 135,000 early ballots and Democrats cast nearly half of them, against about 38% for Republicans. Marshall leans on rural Kansas and on the voters who wait until Election Day.
Where can I Vote Today?
Not sure where to cast your vote on Election Day? Kalshi’s “My Ballot” tool, found in its Midterms Hub, shows you where to vote today once you type in your street address on the desktop site.
You’ll see your assigned polling place with turn-by-turn directions, plus your full ballot, including federal, state, local and judicial races and ballot questions.
Each one displays current Kalshi prices and nonpartisan Ballotpedia links, so you can do last-minute research on candidates and issues. Remember, you must vote at the location assigned to your precinct, so verify before heading out, and bring your photo ID.
How Do You Redeem the Kalshi Promo Code ACTION55?
New traders claim Kalshi promo code ACTION55 in four steps:
- Use one of our Kalshi sign up links.
- Create your Kalshi account and verify your identity.
- Enter ACTION55 when sign-up asks for a code.
- Place $25 in trades within seven days to unlock the Kalshi promo code bonus, starting with a Yes share on Hamilton or Marshall.
When Do Kansas Polls Open, Close and Report Results?
- 7 a.m. local time today: Polls open statewide under Kansas law (K.S.A. 25-106), and some counties open as early as 6 a.m.
- 7 p.m. local time tonight: Polls close, though the same statute lets counties stay open until 8 p.m.
- After polls close: Counties report returns tonight, and Kalshi settles this market by winning party, per its market rules.
Lock in your bonus with Kalshi promo code ACTION55 before polls close, then read our guide to trading on Kalshi.
Kansas Senate Race and Kalshi Promo Code – FAQs
What is the Kalshi promo code? The Kalshi promo code ACTION55 gives new traders a $55 bonus after $25 in trades. Enter it during sign-up.
How do Kalshi prices work for new traders? Each price runs from 1¢ to 99¢ and doubles as a chance. A Yes share pays $1 if your candidate wins and nothing if he loses.
How does the Kalshi referral code work? The Kalshi referral code and ACTION55 are the same entry. Type it at sign-up, then place $25 in trades for the $55 bonus.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
