Meta may be preparing its next big move—and this time, it is stepping into the fast-growing world of prediction markets.
According to a report from The New York Times, the company is developing a standalone app internally called “Arena.” The project is still in its early stages, but it signals Meta’s interest in a space that blends social engagement, forecasting, and gaming-like mechanics.
The move comes on the heels of the announcement that DraftKings is going "all in" on prediction markets.
What Is Meta’s “Arena” App?
Arena is expected to function as a prediction markets platform where users can forecast real-world events. These could include outcomes in politics, sports, entertainment, and even economic trends.
Unlike traditional betting platforms, Arena is not expected to launch with real-money wagering. Instead, users will interact with a points-based system designed to feel more like a video game than a gambling product.
This approach allows Meta to test the concept without immediately dealing with strict gambling regulations.
How the Points System May Work
While Meta has not released official details, early reports suggest Arena will use a familiar prediction market structure:
- Users receive points to place on event outcomes
- Correct predictions increase their point balance
- Incorrect predictions result in point losses
- Leaderboards track performance and accuracy
The system may also include features such as streaks, rankings, or rewards for consistent participation. This would make the experience competitive and social rather than purely financial.
For example, a user might spend 100 points predicting the outcome of a major sports event. If their prediction is correct, they could earn back more points based on the odds or popularity of that outcome.
Why Meta Is Entering Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have seen rapid growth in recent years. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have handled billions in trading volume, especially around major events like elections and economic forecasts.
Meta’s interest likely comes down to three key factors:
- Engagement: Prediction markets keep users actively involved over time
- Data insights: Crowd forecasts can reveal trends and public sentiment
- New formats: Meta continues to experiment beyond traditional social media
This is not Meta’s first attempt in the space. The company previously launched a similar app called Forecast in 2020. It also used a points-based system but was shut down in 2022. Arena appears to be a more ambitious and scalable version of that idea.
Popular Prediction Market Platforms
Major players in the prediction market industry include:
- Kalshi: Regulated by the CFTC and focused on the U.S. market, it covers politics, economics, and sports, and operates in U.S. dollars.
- Polymarket: Built around crypto (often using USDC), it offers strong global liquidity and trading volume, and supports a wide variety of event markets.
- Fanatics Markets: Offers event-based contracts on major outcomes in sports, finance, and culture through a regulated futures market structure.
- FanDuel Predicts: Lets users trade event contracts on sports and financial outcomes, with a focus on U.S. states where online sports betting is not yet legal.
- DraftKings Predictions: After acquiring CFTC-licensed exchange Railbird, DraftKings enables users in states like California, Texas, and Georgia to legally trade on sports-related outcomes.
- Novig: Reimagines sports betting with a peer-to-peer model that emphasizes social interaction and user-driven pricing.
- ProphetX: Uses a social trading and sweepstakes-style system where users can play for free and compete for real-money prizes.
- Underdog: Expanded into prediction markets by acquiring the Aristotle Exchange and bringing the offering in-house.
Trading volumes have surged into the billions, especially around elections and major sports events (like the World Cup).
A Standalone App Strategy
Arena is expected to operate independently from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger. However, Meta could use its massive ecosystem—over 3.5 billion daily users—to drive traffic to the app.
This mirrors Meta’s broader strategy of launching experimental standalone products while leveraging its existing platforms for growth.
Regulatory and Industry Impact
By avoiding real-money betting at launch, Meta can sidestep complex and evolving gambling laws. This could allow for faster global rollout and fewer legal barriers.
However, the company has not ruled out introducing real-money features in the future. If that happens, Arena could compete more directly with established platforms in both the prediction and betting markets.
The news has already had ripple effects. Reports suggest that stocks of companies like DraftKings and Robinhood dipped following the announcement, highlighting how seriously investors are taking Meta’s potential entry into the space.
Risks and Criticism
Not everyone is convinced this is a positive move.
Critics have raised concerns about:
- The potential for addictive behavior
- Blurring the line between gaming and gambling
- Whether this signals a lack of innovation in Meta’s core products
Others, however, see it as validation that prediction markets are becoming mainstream.
What Happens Next?
At this stage, Arena remains an internal and experimental project. There is no confirmed launch date, feature set, or official announcement from Meta.
Key details—such as how points are earned, whether rewards will be offered, or if real-money betting will be added—are still unknown and could change before release.
Still, the direction is clear: Meta is exploring new ways to combine social interaction, competition, and real-world forecasting into a single platform.
If successful, Arena could bring prediction markets to a much wider audience—and reshape how users engage with real-world events online.
