The Nebraska Senate race 2026 has Pete Ricketts at 77¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, even as the latest Ricketts vs Osborn polls swing from a 4-point Osborn lead to a 4-point Ricketts edge.
The Nebraska Governor race is far less competitive on the boards, with Jim Pillen priced at 89¢ on Polymarket and 88¢ on Kalshi against Democrat Lynne Walz.
- Pete Ricketts, Dan Osborn, Jim Pillen and Lynne Walz all have live Nebraska contracts on both exchanges, and Kalshi also lists a Governor-Senate combo market.
- Ricketts vs Osborn polls range from a 48-47 Osborn lead in YouGov to a 52-48 Ricketts edge in Wedgewood, while September Nebraska Governor race polls show Pillen ahead by 8 to 17 points.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Nebraska Senate race 2026 and Nebraska Governor race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska Senate Race | Polymarket | Pete Ricketts | YES (77¢) | $129.87 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Nebraska Senate Race | Polymarket | Dan Osborn | YES (26¢) | $384.62 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Nebraska Senate Race | Kalshi | Pete Ricketts | YES (77¢) | $129.87 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Nebraska Senate Race | Kalshi | Dan Osborn | YES (24¢) | $416.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Nebraska Governor Race | Polymarket | Jim Pillen | YES (89¢) | $112.36 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Nebraska Governor Race | Polymarket | Lynne Walz | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Nebraska Governor Race | Kalshi | Jim Pillen | YES (88¢) | $113.64 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Nebraska Governor Race | Kalshi | Lynne Walz | YES (13¢) | $769.23 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Nebraska Senate Race 2026 and Nebraska Governor Race Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Nebraska contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Nebraska Senate market and the Governor market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price. That makes them approximations in the Senate race, where Kalshi's board lists a third name.
Nebraska Senate Race 2026
Polymarket prices Ricketts as roughly a 3-to-1 favorite, and the distance between that number and the Ricketts vs Osborn polls is the central story in this race.
Pete Ricketts (YES 77¢ / NO 26¢, +3 pts)
Ricketts gained 3 points on the board, lifting him to a 77% implied probability even as several surveys show a coin flip.
The incumbent is a former two-term governor in a state where Republicans hold a large registration edge, and the Senate Leadership Fund has put roughly $15 million behind his bid. The most recent survey, an NPA Polling (R) poll from October 12, had him ahead 46-43, and Wedgewood found him up 52-48.
Dan Osborn (YES 26¢ / NO 77¢)
Osborn is the independent former union leader who came within about 7 points of unseating Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024, and a 26¢ price implies roughly a 26% chance.
The polls are friendlier than that number. SurveyUSA had him ahead 46-42 in September and YouGov showed a 48-47 Osborn lead on October 6, though no Democrat has won a Nebraska Senate race since Ben Nelson in 2006.
Nebraska Governor Race 2026
The Governor board is more lopsided, with Polymarket treating incumbent Jim Pillen as a heavy favorite for a second term.
Jim Pillen (YES 89¢ / NO 11¢)
Pillen sits at an 89% implied probability, and the public polling mostly backs him, with SurveyUSA showing a 43-35 lead and Wedgewood a 53-36 lead in mid-September.
His vulnerabilities are a no-bid emergency contract that drew criticism from the state auditor and soft approval numbers in Democratic-commissioned polling. No Democrat has held the governor's office since Nelson left it in 1999.
Lynne Walz (YES 11¢ / NO 89¢)
Walz, a former state senator from Fremont, has made the race look closer in her own internal polling, including a spring Lake Research survey that had her trailing 47-45.
Outside polling has been less kind, though third-party candidates and undecided voters are a real factor, with 22% choosing another option in the SurveyUSA poll.
Nebraska Senate Race 2026 and Nebraska Governor Race: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and Kalshi's Senate market has already topped $3.2 million in volume.
Nebraska Senate Race 2026
Kalshi matches Polymarket on Ricketts at 77¢, and its own margin forecast has the Republican up 3.2 points.
Pete Ricketts (YES 77¢ / NO 24¢, +3 pts)
Ricketts gained 3 points on Kalshi, the same move as on Polymarket.
Outside money is a big part of the story. FEC records through October 1 showed $7.9 million in PAC spending supporting Ricketts or opposing Osborn, against $7.3 million on the other side.
Dan Osborn (YES 24¢ / NO 77¢, -1 pts)
Osborn slipped 1 point, and Kalshi prices him 2¢ below Polymarket.
The board shows a small quirk: a Ricketts NO at 24¢ matches Osborn's YES at 24¢, even though Ricketts NO also pays if a third name, such as Cindy Burbank at 0.1%, wins.
Osborn's case rests on the survey wins, including a 47-46 lead in a GBAO internal poll and the YouGov result, and on the independent lane he has carved out by refusing to caucus with either party.
Nebraska Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's Governor board sits within a cent of Polymarket on Pillen, and its margin forecast is Republican +9.1, though the market is thin at roughly $82,000 in volume.
Jim Pillen (YES 88¢ / NO 13¢)
Pillen trades 1¢ below Polymarket, which makes 88¢ the softest price on either exchange.
A 9.1-point forecast sits comfortably between the 8-point SurveyUSA lead and the 17-point Wedgewood lead, so the market is pricing the polling average rather than fading it.
Lynne Walz (YES 13¢ / NO 88¢)
Walz gets 2¢ more here than on Polymarket.
Her path runs through independents, the roughly one in five voters who were undecided or backing someone else in the SurveyUSA poll, and the lingering questions around Pillen's emergency contract.
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Nebraska Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Kalshi also lets traders bet on how the two races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Republican sweep is the clear favorite on the board, a Pillen win paired with an Osborn win is the next most likely, and both outcomes involving a Walz win are long shots.
Kalshi is the only exchange in this piece with a combo board, and it prices all four possible pairings, though the market is thin at roughly $1,700 in total volume.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Jim Pillen and Pete Ricketts win (GOP sweep) | YES 75¢ | NO 28¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Jim Pillen and Dan Osborn win (split ticket) | YES 21¢ | NO 84¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Lynne Walz and Dan Osborn win (Democrat-independent sweep) | YES 9¢ | NO 93¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Lynne Walz and Pete Ricketts win (split ticket) | YES 5¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Nebraska Senate Race 2026 and Nebraska Governor Race
The two boards agree on every favorite. Ricketts sits at YES 77¢ on both exchanges, while Pillen is at YES 89¢ on Polymarket and YES 88¢ on Kalshi.
The underdogs tell the same story in reverse. Osborn trades at YES 26¢ on Polymarket and YES 24¢ on Kalshi, and Walz is at YES 11¢ and YES 13¢, respectively.
The friendlier exchange for the challengers flips between the two races. Polymarket gives Osborn an extra 2¢ in the Senate race, while Kalshi gives Walz an extra 2¢ in the Governor race, which is small enough to read as noise rather than a signal.
The bigger divergence is between the Senate boards and the Ricketts vs Osborn polls. All five recent surveys land within 4 points of a tie, yet neither exchange prices Ricketts below YES 77¢.
The Governor race shows the opposite. Prices of YES 89¢ on Polymarket and YES 88¢ on Kalshi line up with September polls that had Pillen ahead by 8 and 17 points.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is in contract design. Kalshi's combo board lets traders express a view on the two races together, while Polymarket's Senate and Governor boards here only cover each race on its own, and Kalshi's Senate board carries a third name that the Polymarket board does not show.
Ricketts vs Osborn Polls and Nebraska Governor Race Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The two exchanges moved together on the Senate board, with Ricketts up 3 points on both and Osborn down 1 on Kalshi, a sign that traders are leaning toward the Republican as Election Day nears.
The Ricketts vs Osborn polls are why the Senate price is the more interesting one. SurveyUSA (Osborn +4), YouGov (Osborn +1) and a GBAO internal (Osborn +1) lean one way, while NPA Polling (Ricketts +3) and Wedgewood (Ricketts +4) lean the other, and several of those surveys came from campaign or partisan sponsors.
The Governor board barely moved because the Nebraska Governor race has no comparable polling dispute. Pillen led both September surveys by 8 and 17 points, and the only close number is Walz's own spring internal.
The combo board adds one more read. A Pillen and Ricketts sweep at 75¢ sits just 2¢ below Ricketts' standalone 77¢ price, which implies Pillen wins almost every time Ricketts does.
Kalshi's display reads 16% on the Pillen and Osborn line while its YES button sits at 21¢, a gap worth discounting given how thin that market is.
The next round of Ricketts vs Osborn polls is the likeliest trigger for a repricing, along with early voting turnout. The deadline to request a mailed early ballot is Friday, October 23, and in-person early voting at county election offices runs through Monday, November 2.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska Senate Race | Polymarket | Pete Ricketts | YES (77¢) | $129.87 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Nebraska Senate Race | Polymarket | Dan Osborn | YES (26¢) | $384.62 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Nebraska Senate Race | Kalshi | Pete Ricketts | YES (77¢) | $129.87 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Nebraska Senate Race | Kalshi | Dan Osborn | YES (24¢) | $416.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Nebraska Governor Race | Polymarket | Jim Pillen | YES (89¢) | $112.36 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Nebraska Governor Race | Polymarket | Lynne Walz | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Nebraska Governor Race | Kalshi | Jim Pillen | YES (88¢) | $113.64 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Nebraska Governor Race | Kalshi | Lynne Walz | YES (13¢) | $769.23 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Nebraska Senate Race 2026 and Nebraska Governor Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Nebraska Senate Race 2026 and Nebraska Governor Race: Final Thoughts
This is two Republican-favored races priced with very different levels of risk: a Nebraska Senate race 2026 where the Ricketts vs Osborn polls are split and the favorite still sits at 77¢, and a Nebraska Governor race where Pillen has led the September polling comfortably.
Watch the combo board for the clearest read on how traders see the two races landing together. A Pillen and Ricketts sweep is the dominant outcome on Kalshi at 75¢, and the next batch of polling and early voting turnout is the most likely thing to change that picture before November 3.
Nebraska Senate Race 2026 and Nebraska Governor Race FAQs
What are the current Nebraska Senate race 2026 odds?
Pete Ricketts is trading at 77¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Dan Osborn sits at 26¢ on Polymarket and 24¢ on Kalshi.
What do the latest Ricketts vs Osborn polls show?
The polls are split. SurveyUSA had Osborn ahead 46-42 and YouGov had him up 48-47, while NPA Polling (R) showed Ricketts leading 46-43 and Wedgewood had him ahead 52-48.
How do Ricketts vs Osborn polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more confident than the polling suggests, with both exchanges keeping Ricketts at 77¢ even though several recent surveys show a tie or an Osborn lead.
What are the current Nebraska Governor race odds?
Jim Pillen is trading at 89¢ on Polymarket and 88¢ on Kalshi, while Lynne Walz sits at 11¢ on Polymarket and 13¢ on Kalshi.
What do the polls show in the Nebraska Governor race?
September polling favored Pillen, with Wedgewood showing a 53-36 lead and SurveyUSA a 43-35 lead. A Lake Research internal poll commissioned by the Walz campaign had the race at 47-45 in the spring.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Nebraska Senate race 2026 slightly differently?
The boards are within 2¢ of each other. Small gaps like Osborn at 26¢ versus 24¢ usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
What do the Nebraska Governor-Senate combo bets show?
Kalshi prices a Pillen and Ricketts sweep at 75¢, a Pillen and Osborn split at 21¢, a Walz and Osborn sweep at 9¢ and a Walz and Ricketts split at 5¢.
Is Dan Osborn a Democrat?
No. Osborn is an independent, Kalshi lists him as such, and he has said he would not plan to caucus with either party if elected.
When does early voting end in Nebraska?
In-person early voting at county election offices runs through Monday, November 2, the deadline to request a mailed early ballot is Friday, October 23, and Election Day is November 3.
How do I trade the Nebraska Senate race 2026 and Nebraska Governor race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
