The Kalshi promo code (ACTION55) is perfect to use on World Series Game 1, and this Rays vs Brewers prediction rounds up our best home run bets today.
- The Rays arrive 98-64 with the best record in the American League, fresh off a six-game ALCS win over Cleveland that ended with Junior Caminero finally hitting his first postseason homer.
- The Brewers set a franchise record with 103 wins, swept the Dodgers in the NLCS and return to the World Series for the first time since 1982, with Jacob Misiorowski expected to start on the mound.
These are the best MLB player props today on the Kalshi board, so here is the full table from the best prediction markets before we break down every pick and the game lines.
| ⚾ WS Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) 1+ HR | Yes | 15¢ | $647.40 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Junior Caminero 2+ HR | Yes | 3¢ | $3,223.66 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) 1+ HR | Yes | 14¢ | $653.98 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Jake Bauers 2+ HR | Yes | 2¢ | $3,723.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) 1+ HR | Yes | 13¢ | $746.46 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| William Contreras (MIL) 1+ HR | Yes | 12¢ | $808.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) 1+ HR | Yes | 11¢ | $881.54 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Brice Turang (MIL) 1+ HR | Yes | 9¢ | $1,076.77 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Garrett Mitchell (MIL) 1+ HR | Yes | 9¢ | $1,076.77 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Yandy Díaz (TB) 1+ HR | Yes | 8¢ | $1,209.63 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Read our dedicated Kalshi review to learn more, or check out more prediction market promo codes for other platforms.
Best Home Run Bets Today: Rays vs Brewers Prediction for World Series Game 1
Every pick below is a real trade we would make after redeeming the Kalshi promo code, and each one comes straight from the Kalshi board rather than the other best prediction market apps.
These MLB home run predictions today run from the shortest price to the longest. Prices can move once lineups are official, so we built these best MLB player props today around the numbers as they stand right now.
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Home Run Prop Today – Junior Caminero
| ⚾ WS Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero 1+ HR | Yes | 15¢ | $647.40 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
| Junior Caminero 2+ HR | Yes | 3¢ | $3,223.66 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
Caminero is the only hitter in either lineup who cleared 40 homers this season, finishing with 42 and 101 RBI, and that power is why he tops this board. He also snapped a long October drought with a two-run shot off Cleveland closer Cade Smith in the ALCS clincher, his first postseason homer.
The matchup is the hard part. Jacob Misiorowski led the majors with a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts while allowing just 14 homers in 174.2 innings, and Caminero went 0-for-4 in his lone start against him back in April. The upside is that Misiorowski has lasted only 8 1/3 innings across two postseason starts, which sends Caminero to a Brewers bullpen sooner than usual.
On the ticket itself, a $100 buy at 15¢ shows a max payout of $647.40, which works out to roughly 647 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Caminero goes deep: this ticket returns $647.40.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Kalshi contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That is a return of about 6.5 times the stake, and it is the shortest price on the board.
If you want to swing bigger on Caminero, two or more homers sits at 3¢ and returns $3,223.66 on a $100 buy.
He has had three multi-homer games in 162 regular-season games this year, including a three-homer night against Kansas City on June 25, which is a rate of roughly 2%. That puts the 3¢ price a little above his own track record.
The case for a big night is streaky power, such as the seven homers he hit over five games in late June. The honest caveat is the opponent: Misiorowski rarely gives up the long ball, so a second homer would likely have to come against a Brewers reliever late.
Home Run Bet Today – Jake Bauers
| ⚾ WS Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers 1+ HR | Yes | 14¢ | $653.98 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
| Jake Bauers 2+ HR | Yes | 2¢ | $3,723.33 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
Bauers led Milwaukee with 26 homers while slashing .266/.389/.484, then won NLCS MVP after his go-ahead two-run shot off Blake Snell in Game 3. He is also a left-handed bat, which matters against this starter.
Drew Rasmussen allowed 10 of his 14 homers this season to left-handed hitters, who came to the plate 392 times, compared with four homers to righties on 277 trips. Bauers also homered off a Rays reliever in the March series, and he is projected to hit fourth if the Brewers repeat their NLCS lineup.
On the ticket, a $100 buy at 14¢ shows a max payout of $653.98, or roughly 654 shares worth $1 each on a Yes.
- If Bauers homers: this ticket returns $653.98.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Kalshi contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That is nearly identical to Caminero's return, but it comes with a friendlier platoon matchup against Rasmussen.
The longer ticket on Bauers is two or more homers at 2¢, which returns $3,723.33 on a $100 buy.
That is the cheapest contract on the board, and it prices a two-homer game at about 2%. A 26-homer season works out to one every 5.5 games, so a second swing out in the same game is a rare event, and the price says so.
The case for it is the lefty-on-righty edge against Rasmussen, plus the fact that Bauers has already gone deep against Tampa Bay this year and made his MLB debut with the Rays in 2018. The caveat is that a second homer would likely come against late relievers such as lefty Cam Booser, and two-homer games are rare for any hitter, even a hot one.
Home Run Pick Today – Jackson Chourio
| ⚾ WS Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio 1+ HR | Yes | 13¢ | $746.46 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
Chourio hit 25 homers with a .291/.351/.487 line in 127 games, and he leads off in the projected Brewers lineup, which gives him the most plate appearances on this board.
He has been up and down in October, hitting just .171 but with two homers and a team-high seven RBI, including a leadoff blast off Snell in the NLCS. As a right-handed hitter he faces Rasmussen's tougher split, since righties managed only four homers off him all year, which helps explain the price.
A $100 buy at 13¢ shows a max payout of $746.46, which is roughly 746 shares worth $1 each if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Chourio homers: this ticket returns $746.46.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Kalshi contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That is a return of about 7.5 times the stake for the Brewers' most dangerous right-handed bat.
Home Run Prop Today – William Contreras
| ⚾ WS Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Contreras 1+ HR | Yes | 12¢ | $808.41 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
Contreras is the hottest bat in the Milwaukee lineup, hitting .367 this postseason with three homers in his first eight games. He added 18 homers and a .270/.341/.417 line during the regular season.
He also homered off Nick Martinez in the March series against Tampa Bay, and he projects to hit third, right behind Chourio and Turang. Like Chourio, he is a righty facing Rasmussen's tougher split, which keeps his price at 12¢.
On the ticket, a $100 buy at 12¢ shows a max payout of $808.41, or roughly 808 shares worth $1 each on a Yes.
- If Contreras goes deep: this ticket returns $808.41.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Kalshi contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That is just over 8 times the stake for a hitter who is swinging as well as anyone in this series.
Home Run Bet Today – Jonathan Aranda
| ⚾ WS Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda 1+ HR | Yes | 11¢ | $881.54 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
Aranda is the Rays' other left-handed power bat, with 22 homers, 92 RBI and a .274/.358/.434 line, and he is projected to hit second between Díaz and Caminero.
SportsLine's model projects Aranda, Díaz and Caminero for at least 1.4 total bases each, but Misiorowski is a real obstacle. He held Aranda hitless in three trips in April, and his .157 opponent average was the best in the majors.
A $100 buy at 11¢ shows a max payout of $881.54, which is roughly 882 shares worth $1 each if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Aranda homers: this ticket returns $881.54.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Kalshi contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That is a return of nearly 9 times the stake, with the platoon edge against any right-handed reliever Milwaukee brings in.
Home Run Pick Today – Brice Turang
| ⚾ WS Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang 1+ HR | Yes | 9¢ | $1,076.77 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
Turang hit 21 homers with a .268/.366/.450 line and 100 RBI, and he is the one Brewer who has already homered off Rasmussen this season, a 392-foot shot to center in the April series.
He is a left-handed hitter, which lines up with Rasmussen's platoon split, and he shook off a slow start to the postseason by going 6-for-11 in the NLCS. He projects to hit second, right behind Chourio.
On the ticket, a $100 buy at 9¢ shows a max payout of $1,076.77, or roughly 1,077 shares worth $1 each on a Yes.
- If Turang goes deep: this ticket returns $1,076.77.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Kalshi contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That is better than 10 times the stake on a hitter with a direct track record against the Rays' starter.
Home Run Prop Today – Garrett Mitchell
| ⚾ WS Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Mitchell 1+ HR | Yes | 9¢ | $1,076.77 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
Mitchell has gone deep twice this postseason, including a go-ahead homer in the NLCS clincher and another off Snell in Game 3, two pitches after Bauers' blast. He is a left-handed bat who hit 11 homers with a .262/.354/.416 line in the regular season.
The price matches Turang's at 9¢ even though Mitchell hit about half as many homers, which is the honest caveat here, along with 167 strikeouts. The upside is the platoon edge against Rasmussen and a bat that is carrying real momentum.
A $100 buy at 9¢ shows a max payout of $1,076.77, which is roughly 1,077 shares worth $1 each if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Mitchell homers: this ticket returns $1,076.77.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Kalshi contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That is the same return as Turang, better than 10 times the stake, for a hitter who comes with a bit less season-long power.
Home Run Bet Today – Yandy Díaz
| ⚾ WS Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Díaz 1+ HR | Yes | 8¢ | $1,209.63 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
Díaz is the only Rays hitter who has homered off Misiorowski, a two-run shot on a 97-mph fastball in the April meeting, and he has been Tampa Bay's best bat this October. He hit .333 with two homers in the ALCS and entered the series with a postseason-high six extra-base hits.
He hit 22 homers with a .293/.359/.446 line and is projected to lead off. The 8¢ price is the longest single-homer number on the board, which reflects a contact-first profile and a 7.1% barrel rate.
On the ticket, a $100 buy at 8¢ shows a max payout of $1,209.63, or roughly 1,210 shares worth $1 each on a Yes.
- If Díaz goes deep: this ticket returns $1,209.63.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Kalshi contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That is a return of better than 12 times the stake, and it is the best single-homer leverage on the board.
TB vs MIL Moneyline, Spread and Total
Here is where the base game lines stand for TB vs MIL in World Series Game 1 on Kalshi. Milwaukee is priced at 60% to win outright, which lines up with sportsbooks that have the Brewers around -160 on the moneyline.
| ⚾ WS Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL ML | Yes | 60¢ | $166.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| TB ML | Yes | 40¢ | $250.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| MIL -1.5 | Yes | 39¢ | $256.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| TB +1.5 (MIL -1.5 NO) | No | 62¢ | $161.29 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Over 5.5 | Yes | 62¢ | $161.29 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Under 5.5 (Over NO) | No | 48¢ | $208.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
For this Rays vs Brewers prediction, the spread asks whether Milwaukee wins by more than 1.5 runs, and the total sits at 5.5 runs on Kalshi while sportsbooks have it at 6. Two of the three March meetings between these teams cleared 5.5 combined runs, though both clubs have changed a lot since then.
What's Moving the Market for Home Run Predictions Today
Prediction markets and prices move for many reasons. The home run board behind our best home run bets today is tightly packed, with every hitter priced between 8¢ and 15¢, which is what you would expect when two aces take the mound. Misiorowski and Rasmussen each allowed exactly 14 homers this season over roughly 172 innings.
Caminero tops the board at 15¢ because he is the only hitter in either lineup with 40-plus homers, while Bauers and Chourio follow as the Brewers hitters with 25 or more. The left-handed bats in TB vs MIL, led by Bauers, Turang and Mitchell, benefit most from Rasmussen's platoon split.
The game lines barely moved, with the spread cover price for Milwaukee ticking up one point to 39% and the total ticking down one point to 56%. The bigger swing factor is how long Misiorowski lasts, since he has not gotten past the fifth inning in the postseason and Milwaukee relievers have a 1.33 ERA this October.
How to Trade This Board on Kalshi
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- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
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Final Thoughts: Best MLB Player Props Today for TB vs MIL
Two of the best starters in baseball keep every price in these home run predictions today between 8¢ and 15¢, which makes World Series Game 1 a night to pick spots rather than chase. Caminero and Bauers are the cleanest entries at the top, while Díaz and Turang offer the most leverage against pitchers they have already homered off this season.
The clearest read in TB vs MIL is the platoon split: Brewers lefties like Bauers, Turang and Mitchell have the edge against Rasmussen, while the Rays' best home run chances rest on Caminero, Díaz and Aranda reaching a Milwaukee bullpen that has been dominant.
That wraps our full Rays vs Brewers prediction and every best home run bets today pick we would make on the Kalshi board.
Rays vs Brewers Prediction FAQs
What are the best home run bets today for Rays vs Brewers? Junior Caminero has the shortest price at 15¢, followed by Jake Bauers at 14¢ and Jackson Chourio at 13¢. Yandy Díaz carries the longest single-homer price at 8¢.
What are the best MLB player props today for World Series Game 1? Our best MLB player props today are home run props for both lineups: Caminero, Bauers, Chourio, William Contreras, Jonathan Aranda, Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell and Díaz, plus two-homer longer shots on Caminero and Bauers.
What are the best home run predictions today for TB vs MIL? Caminero and Bauers sit at the top of our home run predictions today, while Turang and Díaz are the picks with a history of homering off Drew Rasmussen and Jacob Misiorowski this season.
Who wins the Rays vs Brewers prediction on Kalshi? Milwaukee is priced at 60% to win Game 1 outright and Tampa Bay at 40%. The Brewers winning by more than 1.5 runs sits at 39%, and the Over on 5.5 total runs sits at 56%.
Who is starting World Series Game 1? Jacob Misiorowski is expected to start for the Brewers and Drew Rasmussen for the Rays, though neither team had made it official at the time of writing.
How do Kalshi home run contracts work? Each contract resolves Yes if the named player hits at least the listed number of home runs in that game, and No if he does not. A winning share pays out one dollar, and a losing share pays nothing.
When do these home run markets settle? Each market settles once its game is final, based on official game results.
How do I use the Kalshi promo code? Create a Kalshi account, complete a qualifying deposit and enter the Kalshi promo code ACTION55 during sign-up to unlock the trading bonus before you place your first trade.
