The South Carolina Senate race 2026 and the SC Governor race both have Republicans as clear favorites on Polymarket and Kalshi, even as the Graham vs Andrews polls have been far tighter than the prices suggest.
- Darline Graham, Annie Andrews, Alan Wilson and Jermaine Johnson all have live contracts on both exchanges, so traders can compare the Polymarket South Carolina Senate race board against the Kalshi South Carolina Senate race board line by line.
- Graham vs Andrews polls run from a one-point race to a four-point Graham edge, while Johnson vs Wilson polls have shown Wilson ahead by 7 to 8 points on the initial ballot.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current South Carolina Senate race 2026 and SC Governor race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Darline Graham | YES (82¢) | $121.95 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Annie Andrews | YES (20¢) | $500.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Darline Graham | YES (82¢) | $121.95 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Annie Andrews | YES (20¢) | $500.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Alan Wilson | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Jermaine Johnson | YES (8¢) | $1250.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Alan Wilson | YES (93.3¢) | $107.18 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Jermaine Johnson | YES (6.8¢) | $1470.59 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race and SC Governor Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's South Carolina contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Senate and Governor markets resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price, since a win for one candidate is effectively a loss for the other in these two-way races.
Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race 2026
The Polymarket South Carolina Senate race board rates the seat Likely R and prices Graham as roughly a 4-to-1 favorite, a wider gap than the Graham vs Andrews polls would suggest.
Darline Graham (YES 82¢ / NO 20¢)
Graham is the appointed incumbent, named to the seat after the death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, in July, and she beat Rep. Ralph Norman in the Republican runoff with Trump's backing.
Her line on the Polymarket chart has drifted from the high 90s at the start of the window down to 82¢, which implies an 82% probability.
The Senate Leadership Fund is planning a $5 million push for her, a sign Republicans see the seat as worth defending.
Annie Andrews (YES 20¢ / NO 82¢, +1 pt)
Andrews gained 1 point, the only move listed on the Senate board.
South Carolina hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since Ernest Hollings won re-election in 1998, and state polling has overstated Democrats before, which helps explain why traders cap her at 20¢ even with one survey inside the margin of error.
Libertarian Kasie Whitener is also on the ballot, but the minor-party candidates barely register in the polling.
SC Governor Race 2026
The SC Governor race board is far more lopsided, with Polymarket labeling the contest Safe R and pricing Alan Wilson at 94¢ to succeed the term-limited incumbent.
Alan Wilson (YES 94¢ / NO 8¢)
Wilson, the state attorney general, won the June 23 Republican runoff over Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette with roughly 68% of the vote after Trump co-endorsed both candidates.
No Democrat has won a South Carolina governor's race since 1998, and Wilson led Johnson by 8 points in a July Public Policy Polling survey.
Jermaine Johnson (YES 8¢ / NO 94¢)
Johnson, a state representative and former College of Charleston basketball player, ticked up less than a point, and the Johnson vs Wilson polls explain why he isn't priced closer to zero.
A Hart Research survey for his campaign had Wilson up 7 to 8 points on the initial ballot, narrowing to 48% to 46% only after respondents heard positive descriptions of both men, and about 42% of those voters didn't know Johnson's name.
Kalshi South Carolina Senate Race and SC Governor Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and Kalshi's Senate market has already topped $4.39 million in volume.
Kalshi South Carolina Senate Race 2026
The Kalshi South Carolina Senate race board matches Polymarket on both prices, and its own margin forecast has the Republican up 4.4 points.
Darline Graham (YES 82¢ / NO 20¢, -2 pts)
Graham slipped 2 points, and Kalshi's chance column now reads 80% against an 82¢ price to buy YES.
The 4.4-point forecast lines up with Rasmussen's 49-45 result and sits a few points above InsiderAdvantage's 46-45 reading.
Annie Andrews (YES 20¢ / NO 82¢, +2 pts)
Andrews gained 2 points, and the Kalshi chart shows her climbing back to 20% after spending most of 2025 in the low teens or below.
Sabato's Crystal Ball has also moved the race toward Democrats, rating it Likely Republican, a signal that the seat is no longer treated as safe.
SC Governor Race 2026
Kalshi prices Wilson a touch lower than Polymarket, and its margin forecast for the SC Governor race has the Republican up 11.8 points.
Alan Wilson (YES 93.3¢ / NO 6.8¢)
Wilson at 93.3¢ implies a 93.3% probability, the softest price on either exchange.
An 11.8-point forecast is wider than the 7 to 8 point leads in the initial-ballot Johnson vs Wilson polls, which suggests traders are leaning on South Carolina's long Republican record in governor's races as much as the surveys.
Jermaine Johnson (YES 6.8¢ / NO 93.8¢)
Johnson at 6.8¢ implies a 6.8% chance, a little over a cent below where Polymarket has him.
His case rests on name recognition and the single-party-rule argument he has pressed on infrastructure, health care and education.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race
The Polymarket South Carolina Senate race board and the Kalshi South Carolina Senate race board agree on every price. Graham sits at YES 82¢ on both exchanges, and Andrews is at YES 20¢ on both.
The Governor race is where they split slightly. Wilson trades at YES 94¢ on Polymarket and YES 93.3¢ on Kalshi, while Johnson is at YES 8¢ and YES 6.8¢, respectively.
That makes Polymarket the friendlier exchange for Johnson by about a cent, though Polymarket's board rounds to whole cents, so part of the gap is likely just rounding.
The bigger divergence is between the exchanges and the surveys. Graham vs Andrews polls run from InsiderAdvantage's 46-45 to Rasmussen's 49-45, yet neither board has Graham below YES 82¢.
Johnson vs Wilson polls tell a similar story, with Wilson ahead by high single digits on the initial ballot and both exchanges keeping him at YES 93.3¢ or better.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is presentation: Kalshi shows both Yes and No prices plus a margin forecast, while Polymarket shows one price per candidate alongside a Likely R or Safe R rating.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The South Carolina Senate race 2026 board is where the movement is. Kalshi has Graham down 2 and Andrews up 2, and Polymarket shows Andrews up 1, following a stretch of polling that turned a ruby-red seat into a competitive one.
The Graham vs Andrews polls explain the shift. InsiderAdvantage's September 28-29 survey had Graham ahead 46% to 45%, with Mark Hackett at 3% and Whitener at 2%, and Rasmussen's October 5-8 poll of 837 likely voters had her up 49% to 45%, down from a 5-point lead in its prior survey.
A Trafalgar Group survey also put Andrews within striking distance, and the Kalshi South Carolina Senate race board and Polymarket South Carolina Senate race board both priced in some of that tightening.
Republicans are responding, with the $5 million Senate Leadership Fund buy and a Trump tele-rally for Graham, and Trump is tentatively expected to campaign in the state before Election Day.
The Governor board barely moved. Polymarket shows Johnson up less than a point and Kalshi lists no change, even though Johnson vs Wilson polls have been sparse and the best-known tight result came from the Johnson campaign's own pollster.
The likeliest trigger for a repricing is the next round of Graham vs Andrews polls and Johnson vs Wilson polls, along with early voting turnout. Early voting runs October 19 through October 31, and Election Day is November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Darline Graham | YES (82¢) | $121.95 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Annie Andrews | YES (20¢) | $500.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Darline Graham | YES (82¢) | $121.95 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Annie Andrews | YES (20¢) | $500.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Alan Wilson | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Jermaine Johnson | YES (8¢) | $1250.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Alan Wilson | YES (93.3¢) | $107.18 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Jermaine Johnson | YES (6.8¢) | $1470.59 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race: Final Thoughts
This is two Republican-favored races priced with different levels of risk: an SC Governor race where Wilson is a 93¢ to 94¢ favorite, and a Senate race where Graham's 82¢ price sits above a polling picture that has been inside five points for weeks.
Both exchanges agree almost to the cent, so the signal to watch is the next batch of Graham vs Andrews polls and early voting turnout, which are the most likely things to move the South Carolina Senate race 2026 board before November 3.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race FAQs
What are the current SC Governor race odds?
Alan Wilson is trading at 94¢ on Polymarket and 93.3¢ on Kalshi, while Jermaine Johnson sits at 8¢ on Polymarket and 6.8¢ on Kalshi.
Who is favored in the South Carolina Senate race 2026?
Darline Graham is the favorite at 82¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with Annie Andrews priced at 20¢ on both exchanges.
What do the latest Graham vs Andrews polls show?
The race is close. InsiderAdvantage had Graham ahead 46% to 45% in late September, and Rasmussen Reports found her up 49% to 45% among likely voters in early October.
How do Graham vs Andrews polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more confident than the surveys, with both exchanges keeping Graham at 82¢ even though one recent poll showed a one-point race.
What do the latest Johnson vs Wilson polls show?
Public Policy Polling had Wilson up 8 points in July, and a Hart Research survey for Johnson's campaign had Wilson ahead 7 to 8 points on its initial ballot before narrowing to 48% to 46% after voters heard positive descriptions of both candidates.
How do Johnson vs Wilson polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
Both exchanges price Wilson well above what an 8-point lead alone would imply, at 94¢ on Polymarket and 93.3¢ on Kalshi, and Kalshi's margin forecast is Republican +11.8.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the SC Governor race slightly differently?
The boards are about a cent apart. A gap like Johnson at 8¢ versus 6.8¢ usually reflects rounding, different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
Why is Darline Graham on the ballot instead of Lindsey Graham?
Darline Graham was appointed to the seat after the death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, in July, and she then won the Republican nomination by beating Rep. Ralph Norman in a runoff.
When does early voting start in South Carolina?
Early voting runs October 19 through October 31, and Election Day is November 3.
How do I trade the South Carolina Senate race 2026 and SC Governor race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
