The Kansas Senate race 2026 and Kansas Governor race 2026 both have Republicans favored on Polymarket and Kalshi, but the Hamilton vs Marshall polls show a far tighter contest than the Masterson vs Holscher polls.
- Roger Marshall, Adam Hamilton, Ty Masterson and Cindy Holscher all have live Kansas Governor election and Senate contracts on both exchanges, and both platforms also list a Governor-Senate combo market.
- Hamilton vs Marshall polls run from a flat tie to a narrow Hamilton edge, while Masterson vs Holscher polls show Masterson ahead in the nonpartisan surveys, including a 51-44 Emerson result.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Kansas Governor election and Kansas Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Roger Marshall | YES (62¢) | $161.29 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Adam Hamilton | YES (41¢) | $243.90 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Roger Marshall | YES (62¢) | $161.29 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Adam Hamilton | YES (39¢) | $256.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Ty Masterson | YES (77¢) | $129.87 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Cindy Holscher | YES (24¢) | $416.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Ty Masterson | YES (76¢) | $131.58 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Cindy Holscher | YES (25¢) | $400.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Kansas contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Senate market and the Governor market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price, since a win for one candidate is a loss for the other in each two-way race.
Kansas Senate Race 2026
In the Kansas Senate race 2026, Polymarket prices Marshall as a favorite, and the gap between that number and the October Hamilton vs Marshall polls is the central story.
Roger Marshall (YES 62¢ / NO 41¢, +1 pt)
Marshall ticked up 1 point, but he is far off the roughly 80% both exchanges gave him in mid-September.
He is the first-term incumbent in a state that hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and the Senate Leadership Fund has already poured millions into defending the seat.
The surveys are less friendly. Marshall led a co/efficient poll 49-44 in early September, but he has trailed or tied in most of the recent Hamilton vs Marshall polls.
Adam Hamilton (YES 41¢ / NO 62¢)
Hamilton, a former megachurch pastor, has led or tied most of the recent public polls, including YouGov's 48-45 result and InsiderAdvantage's 48-47 lead.
Cook Political Report now rates the race a toss-up, and Emerson found Hamilton ahead among independents 42% to 27%, with Libertarian David Graham drawing 4%.
A near-tied polling average still has to overcome 94 years without a Democratic Senate win in Kansas, which is why traders keep Hamilton at 41¢.
Kansas Governor Race 2026
The Kansas Governor race 2026 board is more lopsided, with Polymarket treating Masterson as a roughly 3-to-1 favorite in the race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly.
Ty Masterson (YES 77¢ / NO 24¢, +1 pt)
Masterson gained 1 point. The Kansas Senate president won the Republican primary with Donald Trump's endorsement and has led the nonpartisan surveys since.
Emerson had him up 51-44 with 6% undecided, and a New York Times/Siena poll showed him ahead by more than its margin of error.
Cindy Holscher (YES 24¢ / NO 77¢, -1 pt)
Holscher slipped 1 point, and the Masterson vs Holscher polls explain why traders aren't more generous.
Her best number is a Democratic-aligned Global Strategy Group poll from August that had her up 47-46, while Emerson found 12% of voters still hadn't heard of her and independents splitting 47-45 for Masterson.
Kansas Senate Race and Kansas Governor Election: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and Kalshi's Senate market has already topped $4.39 million in volume while its Governor market sits at roughly $284,000.
Kansas Senate Race 2026
Kalshi matches Polymarket on Marshall in the Kansas Senate race 2026, and its own margin forecast has the Republican up just 1.6 points.
Roger Marshall (YES 62¢ / NO 39¢, +1 pt)
Marshall rose 1 point on Kalshi, matching the move on Polymarket, though the chart shows how far he has fallen from the neighborhood of 90% he held for most of 2025.
A 1.6-point forecast lines up with the Siena and Trafalgar ties, and it leaves little room between the two candidates.
Adam Hamilton (YES 39¢ / NO 62¢, -1 pt)
Hamilton slipped 1 point on Kalshi even though he led YouGov 48-45 and InsiderAdvantage 48-47, and Kalshi prices him 2¢ below Polymarket.
His case rests on independents, who favored him by 15 points in the Emerson survey, and on a Wedgewood poll that had him ahead 50-48.
Kansas Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's Kansas Governor race 2026 board sits within a cent of Polymarket on both candidates, and its margin forecast has the Republican up 4.8 points.
Ty Masterson (YES 76¢ / NO 25¢)
Masterson at 76¢ is the softest price on either exchange, and a 4.8-point forecast sits below the 7-point lead in the Emerson poll.
He gets a boost from Graham's supporters, who broke 65% to 31% for Masterson in the governor's race in that survey.
Cindy Holscher (YES 25¢ / NO 76¢)
Holscher is the best-priced underdog on Kalshi relative to Polymarket, a cent firmer at 25¢.
She beat Ethan Corson in the August 4 Democratic primary, but Republican groups have run ads tying her to California, and Emerson found her favorability at just 38% to 35% unfavorable.
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Kansas Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Both exchanges let traders bet on how the two races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract, and each prices all four possible pairings.
A Republican sweep is the clear favorite at 58¢ on Polymarket and 59¢ on Kalshi, but the next two outcomes are close, with Polymarket putting a Democratic sweep at 21¢ ahead of a Masterson and Hamilton split at 19¢, while Kalshi flips them at 20¢ and 24¢.
Kalshi's combo market is thin at roughly $88,500 in total volume, so small gaps between the boards carry less weight.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Ty Masterson and Roger Marshall win (GOP sweep) | YES 58¢ | NO 43¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Holscher and Adam Hamilton win (Dem sweep) | YES 21¢ | NO 80¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ty Masterson and Adam Hamilton win (split ticket) | YES 19¢ | NO 82¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Holscher and Roger Marshall win (split ticket) | YES 3¢ | NO 98¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Ty Masterson and Roger Marshall win (GOP sweep) | YES 59¢ | NO 43¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Holscher and Adam Hamilton win (Dem sweep) | YES 20¢ | NO 82¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ty Masterson and Adam Hamilton win (split ticket) | YES 24¢ | NO 81¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Holscher and Roger Marshall win (split ticket) | YES 5¢ | NO 98¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Kansas Senate Race and Kansas Governor Race
The two boards agree on every favorite. Marshall sits at YES 62¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Masterson is at YES 77¢ and YES 76¢, respectively.
The underdogs tell the same story in reverse. Hamilton trades at YES 41¢ on Polymarket and YES 39¢ on Kalshi, and Holscher is at YES 24¢ and YES 25¢.
The friendlier exchange for Democrats flips between the two races. Polymarket gives Hamilton an extra 2¢ in the Senate race, while Kalshi gives Holscher an extra cent in the Governor race, which is small enough to read as noise rather than a signal.
The bigger divergence is between the Senate boards and the surveys. Hamilton vs Marshall polls have ranged from co/efficient's 49-44 Marshall lead to Wedgewood's 50-48 Hamilton lead, and the 270toWin average is a near tie, yet neither exchange has Marshall below YES 62¢.
Masterson vs Holscher polls are less split. Emerson and Times/Siena both have Masterson ahead, and only an August Democratic-aligned poll has Holscher in front, so a price of YES 76¢ or better for Masterson is closer to what the surveys suggest.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is in presentation and depth: Kalshi's combo board names the candidates, Polymarket's labels each outcome by party, and Kalshi's Senate market carries far more volume than its Governor market.
Kansas Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The Senate boards have moved the most. Both exchanges had Marshall near 80% in mid-September, and he now sits at 62¢ on each.
The polling is driving that repricing. Cook Political Report moved the race to a toss-up, and the Senate Leadership Fund is now spending in Kansas after Marshall trailed or tied in most surveys, including a 45-45 Times/Siena result.
The Governor board has barely budged because the polling hasn't. Masterson gained 1 point and Holscher lost 1 point on Polymarket, and the nonpartisan surveys from Emerson and Times/Siena all point the same way.
The combo boards add one more read. Polymarket's 58¢ Republican sweep plus its 19¢ Masterson and Hamilton split equals 77¢, exactly Masterson's standalone price, so that board is internally consistent.
Kalshi's two Masterson pairings add up to 83¢ against a 76¢ standalone price, a gap worth discounting given how thin its combo market is.
The next round of Hamilton vs Marshall polls and Masterson vs Holscher polls is the likeliest trigger for a repricing, along with early voting turnout. Counties can open in-person advance voting as early as October 19, and every county must have it running by October 27, which is also the deadline to request an advance ballot.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Roger Marshall | YES (62¢) | $161.29 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Adam Hamilton | YES (41¢) | $243.90 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Roger Marshall | YES (62¢) | $161.29 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Adam Hamilton | YES (39¢) | $256.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Ty Masterson | YES (77¢) | $129.87 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Cindy Holscher | YES (24¢) | $416.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Ty Masterson | YES (76¢) | $131.58 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Cindy Holscher | YES (25¢) | $400.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Kansas Senate Race and Kansas Governor Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Kansas Senate Race and Kansas Governor Election: Final Thoughts
This is two Republican-favored races priced with very different levels of risk: a Senate race where the polls are a coin flip but both exchanges still lean Marshall, and a Kansas Governor election where Masterson has led the nonpartisan surveys and trades near 3-to-1.
Watch the combo boards for the clearest read on how traders see the two races landing together. A Republican sweep is the dominant outcome on both exchanges, and the next batch of polling and early voting turnout is the most likely thing to change that picture before November 3.
Kansas Senate Race and Kansas Governor Election FAQs
What are the current Kansas Senate race 2026 odds?
Roger Marshall is trading at 62¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Adam Hamilton sits at 41¢ on Polymarket and 39¢ on Kalshi.
What are the current Kansas Governor race 2026 odds?
Ty Masterson is trading at 77¢ on Polymarket and 76¢ on Kalshi, while Cindy Holscher sits at 24¢ on Polymarket and 25¢ on Kalshi.
What do the latest Hamilton vs Marshall polls show?
The polls are tight. YouGov has Hamilton ahead 48-45, InsiderAdvantage has him up 48-47, Wedgewood has him up 50-48, and Times/Siena shows a 45-45 tie, while a September co/efficient poll had Marshall ahead 49-44.
What do the latest Masterson vs Holscher polls show?
Emerson College has Masterson ahead 51-44 with 6% undecided, and a New York Times/Siena poll showed him leading by more than its margin of error. A Democratic-aligned Global Strategy Group poll from August had Holscher up 47-46.
How do Hamilton vs Marshall polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more cautious than the polling suggests, with both exchanges keeping Marshall at 62¢ even though several recent surveys show Hamilton ahead or tied.
Are Masterson vs Holscher polls tightening before Election Day?
Not in the nonpartisan surveys. Emerson and Times/Siena both show Masterson leading, and Holscher moved down 1 point to 24¢ on Polymarket, though a Democratic-aligned August poll had her narrowly ahead.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Kansas Governor election slightly differently?
The boards are within a cent of each other. Small gaps like Masterson at 77¢ versus 76¢ usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
What do the Kansas Governor-Senate combo bets show?
Polymarket prices a Republican sweep at 58¢, a Democratic sweep at 21¢, a Masterson and Hamilton split at 19¢ and a Holscher and Marshall split at 3¢. Kalshi has the same four outcomes at 59¢, 20¢, 24¢ and 5¢.
When does early voting start for the Kansas Governor election?
Counties can begin in-person advance voting as early as October 19, and every county must offer it by October 27, which is also the advance ballot request deadline. Election Day is November 3.
How do I trade the Kansas Senate race 2026 and Kansas Governor race 2026 odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
