Caleb Williams Player Props & Picks | Polymarket Promo Code ACTION for Patriots vs. Bears on TNF

The Polymarket promo code (ACTION) is perfect to use on Thursday Night Football in Chicago tonight, and this Patriots vs. Bears prediction rounds up our best Caleb Williams player props.

• The Bears are 4-2 and Williams is back from a three-game hamstring absence, after 305 yards in a win at Atlanta, while running back Kyle Monangai and guard Jonah Jackson sit on the latest NFL injury report.
• The Patriots are 4-2 on a three-game win streak, but three starting linemen were hurt in the win over the Jets, a wrinkle for New England's NFL futures outlook.

Here are our Caleb Williams picks from the best prediction markets, safer line first, longer shot underneath.

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Caleb Williams Player Props: Our Best Polymarket Picks for Patriots vs Bears

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Polymarket takes a small cut through fees and fills orders against live order book depth, so payouts are never clean share math. The returns shown are what each ticket showed at the time of writing and can move before kickoff.

Caleb Williams Player Props –  Anytime Touchdown 1+

Anytime markets count rushing and receiving scores but not passing ones, and Williams has two rushing touchdowns this season, both in Week 1. Across his last 17 games, playoffs included, he has scored on the ground in only two (12%), so the 21% price sits above his rate and the edge is thin.

The case is script. The Bears rank second in run-plus-play-action rate and out-snap opponents 73 to 50, and New England has allowed five rushing touchdowns through six games. A $100 buy at a 21¢ average price is roughly 476 shares.

• If Williams scores a rushing or receiving touchdown: returns $451.42.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That is a payout of roughly 4.5 times your stake.

Caleb Williams Player Props – First Touchdown Scorer Pick

This is a pure longshot at 5%. Williams ran in his first career touchdown on the Bears' opening drive of the 2025 opener, and Chicago's ball-control style should mean long early drives.

The risk is that Ben Johnson's offense has plenty of ways to score first, and New England held the Jets to 0-for-3 in the red zone last week. A $100 buy at a 5¢ average price is roughly 2,000 shares.

• If Williams scores the game's first touchdown: returns $1,876.20.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That is a payout of nearly 19 times your stake.

Caleb Williams Player Props – 2+ Passing Touchdowns

Williams has thrown two or more touchdown passes in 10 of his last 17 games, a 59% clip against a 56¢ price, including three of his last five. Only one of his three starts this year got there, though.

New England has allowed seven passing touchdowns in six games, three of them in the last three, but Williams threw for 120 yards without a score in his only meeting with the Patriots. A $100 buy at a 56¢ average price is roughly 179 shares.

• If Williams throws two or more touchdown passes: returns $173.26.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That pays about 1.7 times your stake.

If you back Williams for a big night through the air, 3+ passing touchdowns sits at 28¢ and returns $340.64 on a $100 buy. He has done it in two of his last 17 games (12%), so the price is well above his rate.

The path is a Patriots defense that has leaked three scores in three games. The caveat is a run-heavy Bears script that often finishes drives on the ground.

Caleb Williams Player Props – 250+ Passing Yards

Williams has cleared 250 passing yards in eight of his last 17 games (47%), including four of his last five, which lines up almost exactly with the 49¢ price. Clear skies, light wind and about 60 degrees will not interfere.

New England allows 209 passing yards per game, 11th in the league, but opposing passers have thrown for 796 yards in the last three games. Chicago's check-down tilt (6.1-yard average target depth) caps the ceiling, so the edge is thin. A $100 buy at a 49¢ average price is roughly 204 shares.

• If Williams throws for 250 or more yards: returns $197.10.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That is just under twice your stake.

If you want a bigger day, 275+ passing yards sits at 37¢ and returns $259.29 on a $100 buy. He has reached that mark in five of 17 games (29%) and two of his last five, so the price is above his rate.

All five came on 34 or more attempts. The upside is a Patriots secondary easing Christian Gonzalez back and listing Carlton Davis III (neck) as limited.

Caleb Williams Player Props 1+ Interceptions

Williams has thrown at least one interception in eight of his last 17 games (47%) and three of his last five, so 45¢ is close to fair. PFF charged him with three turnover-worthy plays on 111 dropbacks this season.

The counterpoint is that the Patriots have four interceptions in six games, one every 48 attempts, and Williams has one in three starts this year. A $100 buy at a 45¢ average price is roughly 222 shares.

• If Williams throws at least one interception: returns $214.04.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That is a payout of more than twice your stake.

If you expect a messy night, 2+ interceptions sits at 16¢ and returns $593.73 on a $100 buy. He has done it in two of 17 games (12%), both in last season's playoffs, so the price is a little above his rate.

New England's pressure is the route, with 14 sacks and a 36.4% pressure rate on Geno Smith last week. Four interceptions all season is the obstacle.

Caleb Williams Player Props – Caleb Williams 20+ Rushing Yards

This is the best-supported line on the board. Williams has run for 20 or more yards in 10 of his last 17 games (59%) and four of his last five, against a 52¢ price. PFF credits him with 88 scramble yards in three games, and his 17.6% extended-play rate ranks second among qualified passers.

New England's pressure creates scramble lanes, though its run defense allows 92 yards per game, ninth in the league. The risk is volume, because he had four carries for three yards at Atlanta. A $100 buy at a 52¢ average price is roughly 192 shares.

• If Williams runs for 20 or more yards: returns $186.09.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That pays about 1.9 times your stake.

If you want him to break a few, 30+ rushing yards sits at 31¢ and returns $312.22 on a $100 buy. He has reached 30 in six of 17 games (35%) and three of his last five, a slightly better rate than the price implies.

Williams ran twice for 15 yards in his only game against the Patriots. The caveat is script, because a Bears lead shifts carries to D'Andre Swift.

Patriots vs Bears Lines and How They Shape Caleb Williams Props

Williams' availability is the biggest swing on the moneyline, where Chicago sits at 60%. The Bears scored 90 points in the two games he started and finished, and seven in the Week 5 loss to Green Bay without him.

At Bears -2.5, his props are tied to game script. A close game keeps Williams throwing and scrambling, which helps the yardage and interception lines, while a comfortable lead sends carries to Swift and trims his volume.

The total of 50.5 is a pace question. The over is 2-1 in Williams' starts, but Chicago's ball control means fewer possessions, and weather is no factor for Caleb Williams props.

Anytime Touchdown Props for Patriots vs Bears

• D'Andre Swift (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 60%): Bears running back.
• Rhamondre Stevenson (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 48%): Patriots running back.
• A.J. Brown (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 40%): Patriots top receiver.
• Rome Odunze (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 34%): Bears receiver.
• Colston Loveland (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 33%): Bears tight end.
• Luther Burden III (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 32%): Bears receiver.
• Hunter Henry (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 29%): Patriots tight end.
• Roschon Johnson (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 29%): Bears running back.
• DeMario Douglas (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 23%): Patriots slot receiver.
• Caleb Williams (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 21%): Two rushing touchdowns, both in Week 1 at Carolina.
• TreVeyon Henderson (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 21%): Patriots running back, ankle listed.
• Drake Maye (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 20%): Patriots quarterback.
• Kalif Raymond (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 19%): Bears receiver.
• Efton Chism III (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 16%): Patriots receiver.
• Eli Raridon (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 15%): Patriots rookie tight end, third-round pick.
• Cole Kmet (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 13%): Bears tight end.
• Kyle Williams (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 11%): Patriots receiver.
• Corey Kiner (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 10%): Patriots running back.
• Sam Roush (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 7%): Bears rookie tight end, third-round pick.
• Zavion Thomas (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 6%): Bears rookie receiver, third-round pick.
• Jahdae Walker (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 5%): Bears receiver.

First Touchdown Props for Patriots vs Bears

• D'Andre Swift (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 17%): Bears running back.
• Rhamondre Stevenson (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 12%): Patriots running back.
• A.J. Brown (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 8%): Patriots top receiver.
• Colston Loveland (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 8%): Bears tight end.
• Luther Burden III (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 8%): Bears receiver.
• Rome Odunze (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 7%): Bears receiver.
• Hunter Henry (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 6%): Patriots tight end.
• Roschon Johnson (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 6%): Bears running back.
• Drake Maye (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 5%): Patriots quarterback.
• Caleb Williams (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 5%): Bears quarterback.
• TreVeyon Henderson (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 5%): Patriots running back.
• DeMario Douglas (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 4%): Patriots slot receiver.
• Kalif Raymond (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 4%): Bears receiver.
• Cole Kmet (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 3%): Bears tight end.
• Efton Chism III (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 3%): Patriots receiver.
• Eli Raridon (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 3%): Patriots rookie tight end.
• Kyle Williams (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 2%): Patriots receiver.
• Corey Kiner (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 2%): Patriots running back.
• Sam Roush (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 2%): Bears rookie tight end.
• Jahdae Walker (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 1%): Bears receiver.
• Zavion Thomas (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 1%): Bears rookie receiver.
• No Touchdown Scored (First Touchdown Scorer: Yes 1%): The game finishes without a touchdown.

Receiving Yards Props for Patriots vs Bears

• Kalif Raymond (Receiving Yards 20+: Yes 63%): Bears receiver.
• Rhamondre Stevenson (Receiving Yards 15+: Yes 62%): Patriots running back.
• D'Andre Swift (Receiving Yards 15+: Yes 59%): Bears running back.
• Hunter Henry (Receiving Yards 30+: Yes 58%): Patriots tight end.
• Colston Loveland (Receiving Yards 40+: Yes 57%): Bears tight end.
• Efton Chism III (Receiving Yards 20+: Yes 56%): Patriots receiver.
• A.J. Brown (Receiving Yards 70+: Yes 51%): Patriots top receiver.
• Kyle Williams (Receiving Yards 20+: Yes 51%): Patriots receiver.
• Eli Raridon (Receiving Yards 15+: Yes 50%): Patriots rookie tight end.
• Luther Burden III (Receiving Yards 60+: Yes 49%): Bears receiver.
• Rome Odunze (Receiving Yards 50+: Yes 47%): Bears receiver.
• DeMario Douglas (Receiving Yards 40+: Yes 45%): Patriots slot receiver.

Rushing Yards Props for Patriots vs Bears

• Rhamondre Stevenson (Rushing Yards 40+: Yes 54%): Patriots running back.
• Caleb Williams (Rushing Yards 20+: Yes 52%): Scrambles drive much of his rushing yardage.
• D'Andre Swift (Rushing Yards 60+: Yes 50%): Bears running back.
• Drake Maye (Rushing Yards 30+: Yes 50%): Patriots quarterback.
• TreVeyon Henderson (Rushing Yards 25+: Yes 48%): Patriots running back.

What's Moving the Market for Caleb Williams Props

TreVeyon Henderson's rushing line dropped 13 points to 48% and his anytime touchdown price fell five points to 21%, while Rhamondre Stevenson's rushing line slid six points to 54%.

Caleb Williams props barely moved: his anytime touchdown price ticked up under a point to 21% and his 20+ rushing line gained a point to 52%.

Polymarket Promo Code ACTION: How to Trade Caleb Williams Player Props

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Final Thoughts: Caleb Williams Picks and Player Props

The cleanest edge among these Caleb Williams props is his legs. His 20+ and 30+ rushing lines clear his recent hit rates, the passing touchdown and interception lines look roughly fair, and most of the longer shots sit above his rate.

Our Caleb Williams picks come down to volume and scrambles. Check final injury designations, then use Polymarket promo code ACTION to start with the $25 bonus.

Polymarket Promo Code ACTION FAQs

What are the best Caleb Williams player props for Patriots vs Bears? Our strongest edge is rushing yards, where Williams has cleared 20 yards in 10 of his last 17 games against a 52-cent price.

Is Caleb Williams playing tonight? Williams returned from a three-game hamstring absence last Sunday and threw for 305 yards. Final inactives come shortly before kickoff, so check them before you trade.

How good is the Patriots defense against quarterbacks? New England allows 209 passing yards per game with seven passing touchdowns, four interceptions and 14 sacks through six games.

Has Caleb Williams played the Patriots before? Once, in 2024, when he went 16-of-30 for 120 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions in a 19-3 Patriots win. He was sacked at least eight times and ran twice for 15 yards.

How do Polymarket contracts on Caleb Williams props work? Each Yes contract pays one dollar per share if the stat clears the threshold and nothing if it does not, and the price reflects the market's implied probability.

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