The South Carolina Senate race 2026 and the SC Governor race both have Republicans as favorites on Polymarket and Kalshi, but only one of them is priced like a lock.
Darline Graham is an 80% favorite in the Senate on both exchanges even though Graham vs Andrews polls have shown a one-point race, while Alan Wilson sits at 94% or better in the governor's race.
Early voting runs through Saturday, October 31, and South Carolina had logged nearly 192,000 early ballots through October 20.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current South Carolina Senate race 2026 and SC Governor race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Darline Graham | YES (80¢) | $125.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Annie Andrews | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Darline Graham | YES (80¢) | $125.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Annie Andrews | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Alan Wilson | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Jermaine Johnson | YES (7¢) | $1,428.57 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Alan Wilson | YES (94.7¢) | $105.60 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Jermaine Johnson | YES (6.3¢) | $1,587.30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race and SC Governor Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's South Carolina contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Senate market and the Governor market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election, and Polymarket tags the Senate race Likely R and the Governor race Safe R.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price, since a win for one candidate is a loss for the other in each two-way race.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026
Polymarket prices Graham as a 4-to-1 favorite, and the gap between that number and the October polling is the central story in this race.
Darline Graham (YES 80¢ / NO 21¢)
Graham trades at 80¢, an 80% implied probability, and her line on the chart has drifted lower through October. The Polymarket South Carolina Senate race board still treats her as a clear favorite, returning $125.00 on a $100 stake.
She was appointed to the seat after the July death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, beat Rep. Ralph Norman in the Republican runoff with Trump's backing, and has $5 million in planned Senate Leadership Fund spending behind her.
The Graham vs Andrews polls explain why the price isn't higher. InsiderAdvantage had her up 46-45 in late September, Trafalgar had it 43.4% to 42.3%, and a Rasmussen survey from October 5-8 had her ahead 49-45 among likely voters.
Annie Andrews (YES 21¢ / NO 80¢)
Andrews at 21¢ implies a 21% probability and pays about 4.76x on a win, a much longer price than a one-point poll deficit would suggest.
The pediatrician is running on lowering costs, and Trafalgar found her ahead in every age group under 50. The history is the counterweight, since South Carolina last elected a Democratic senator in 1998 and polling has overstated Democrats in the state before.
Cook Political Report moved the race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, and Sabato's Crystal Ball has it at Likely Republican as well.
SC Governor Race 2026
The governor's market is a different animal, with Polymarket holding Wilson in the mid-90s and the line barely moving since September.
Alan Wilson (YES 94¢ / NO 7¢)
Wilson trades at 94¢, a 94% implied probability, and the SC Governor race board prices him as close to inevitable. A $100 stake returns $106.38.
The attorney general beat Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette in the June 23 Republican runoff, then reported a fundraising quarter above $2.5 million. He led by 7 to 8 points in both a July Public Policy Polling survey and an August Hart Research poll.
Jermaine Johnson (YES 7¢ / NO 94¢)
Johnson at 7¢ implies a 7% probability and pays about 14.29x, the longest price on either Polymarket board.
The Johnson vs Wilson polls are his argument. His own campaign's Hart poll got to 48-46 after voters heard positive descriptions of both men, and he raised about $700,000 last quarter. No Democrat has won the governorship since Jim Hodges in 1998.
Kalshi South Carolina Senate Race and SC Governor Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and Kalshi's own margin forecast has the Republican ahead by 5.4 points in the Senate and 10.6 points in the governor's race.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026
The Kalshi South Carolina Senate race board matches Polymarket's 80¢ on Graham, and its R+5.4 forecast sits well above what the closest polls show.
Darline Graham (YES 80¢ / NO 22¢, +1 pts)
Graham ticked up 1 point to 80¢ on Kalshi, and her NO side costs 22¢, a cent more than the derived price on Polymarket.
The bounce arrives as Republicans commit resources. The Senate Leadership Fund is spending $5 million, Politico reported that Majority Leader John Thune is headed to the state, and Trump is tentatively expected to campaign there before Election Day.
Annie Andrews (YES 21¢ / NO 80¢, -1 pts)
Andrews slipped 1 point to 21¢, even after the October 11 debate in Columbia gave her a stage. She pitched herself as willing to stand up to her own party, while Graham accused her of not being honest with voters.
Third-party votes matter at the margins. InsiderAdvantage had Constitution Party nominee Mark Hackett at 3% and Libertarian Kasie Whitener at 2%, enough to shave both major candidates in a race this close.
SC Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's governor board is a hair firmer than Polymarket's on Wilson, and its own forecast has him ahead by 10.6 points.
Alan Wilson (YES 94.7¢ / NO 6.4¢, -0.2 pts)
Wilson dipped 0.2 points to 94.7¢, and Kalshi's board shows a 93.7% chance. A $100 stake at that price returns $105.60.
His campaign pointed to the $2.5 million quarter as early voting opened, and his closing message is built on affordability, eliminating the income tax and cutting property taxes.
Jermaine Johnson (YES 6.3¢ / NO 93.9¢, +0.2 pts)
Johnson gained 0.2 points to 6.3¢, a 6.3% chance on Kalshi's board, with a $100 stake returning $1,587.30.
He cast his own ballot in Columbia on the first day of early voting before heading to the Grand Strand, arguing that decades of Republican control justify a change.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race
The two boards agree on every favorite. Graham sits at YES 80¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Wilson is at YES 94¢ on Polymarket and YES 94.7¢ on Kalshi.
The underdogs match too. Andrews is at YES 21¢ on both exchanges, and Johnson trades at YES 7¢ on Polymarket and YES 6.3¢ on Kalshi.
The only daylight is in the governor's race, where Kalshi is a fraction firmer on Wilson. That gap is small enough to read as different trader bases rather than a real disagreement.
The bigger divergence is between the exchanges and the Graham vs Andrews polls. Surveys have run from a 46-45 Graham edge to a 49-45 Rasmussen lead, yet neither board has Graham below YES 80¢.
The Johnson vs Wilson polls show Wilson up 7 to 8 points in the surveys we found, and a YES 94¢ price leaves little room for an upset.
Where the platforms differ is presentation. Kalshi quotes both sides and publishes a margin forecast, while Polymarket's board shows a single price per candidate, and neither exchange lists a Senate-Governor combo market here.
Graham vs Andrews Polls and Johnson vs Wilson Polls: Market Price Influencers
The Polymarket South Carolina Senate race and Kalshi South Carolina Senate race boards are nearly identical, with Graham at 80¢ and Andrews at 21¢ on both. Traders are reading the Graham vs Andrews polls the same way: close surveys, a Republican-leaning electorate and a history of Democrats underperforming their numbers.
Graham's price is acting more like a ceiling than a floor. Both Cook and Sabato moved the race to Likely Republican, the Senate Leadership Fund is spending $5 million, and Thune is visiting, which is how a party behaves when it sees a real race.
Turnout is the swing variable in the South Carolina Senate race 2026. The first day of early voting drew more than double the 2022 midterm total, and South Carolina doesn't release a party breakdown in a general election, so traders are reading volume without knowing who is voting.
The SC Governor race has no such drama. The Johnson vs Wilson polls show Wilson ahead by high single digits, and Johnson's best number, 48-46, only came after respondents read positive descriptions of both candidates.
Watch the final early voting totals through October 31, any late Senate polling and whether Trump follows through on a South Carolina stop before Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Darline Graham | YES (80¢) | $125.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Annie Andrews | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Darline Graham | YES (80¢) | $125.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Annie Andrews | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Alan Wilson | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Jermaine Johnson | YES (7¢) | $1,428.57 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Alan Wilson | YES (94.7¢) | $105.60 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Jermaine Johnson | YES (6.3¢) | $1,587.30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the SC Governor Race and South Carolina Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race: Final Thoughts
The South Carolina Senate race 2026 and the SC Governor race are two Republican-favored contests priced with very different levels of risk: a Senate race where the Graham vs Andrews polls sit inside the margin of error but both exchanges hold Graham at 80¢, and a governor's race where Wilson at 94¢ or better looks far safer.
Watch the Kalshi South Carolina Senate race and Polymarket South Carolina Senate race boards against that 80¢ line after the final early voting numbers come in, since it's the clearest read on whether traders trust the polls or the partisan lean.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race FAQs
What are the current South Carolina Senate Race 2026 odds?
Darline Graham is trading at 80¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Annie Andrews sits at 21¢ on both exchanges.
Who is favored in the SC Governor Race?
Alan Wilson is the heavy favorite at 94¢ on Polymarket and 94.7¢ on Kalshi, with Jermaine Johnson priced at 7¢ and 6.3¢, respectively.
What do the latest Graham vs Andrews polls show?
The race is close. InsiderAdvantage had Graham ahead 46-45, Trafalgar had her up 43.4% to 42.3%, and Rasmussen's October 5-8 survey had her leading 49-45 among likely voters.
What do the latest Johnson vs Wilson polls show?
Wilson has led by 7 to 8 points in the surveys available, including a July Public Policy Polling poll and an August Hart Research poll for Johnson's campaign, which narrowed to 48-46 only after voters read positive descriptions of both candidates.
What are the Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race odds?
The Polymarket South Carolina Senate race board has Graham at 80¢ and Andrews at 21¢, and tags the race Likely R.
What are the Kalshi South Carolina Senate Race odds?
The Kalshi South Carolina Senate race board has Graham at 80¢ YES and 22¢ NO, Andrews at 21¢ YES and 80¢ NO, and a margin forecast of Republican +5.4.
How do Graham vs Andrews polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more confident than the polls. Both exchanges keep Graham at 80¢ even though two recent surveys had her ahead by roughly a point.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the SC Governor Race slightly differently?
The boards are within a cent of each other. Small gaps like Wilson at 94¢ versus 94.7¢ usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
When does early voting end in South Carolina?
Early voting runs October 19 through October 31, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
How do I trade the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
