The South Carolina Senate race 2026 is a near coin flip in the polls but still a clear Republican lean on Polymarket and Kalshi, while the SC Governor race is priced as a Republican lock.
- Darline Graham, Annie Andrews, Alan Wilson and Jermaine Johnson all have live contracts on both exchanges, so traders can line up the Polymarket South Carolina Senate race board against the Kalshi South Carolina Senate race board.
- Graham vs Andrews polls now run from a 4-point Graham lead to a 48-48 tie, while Johnson vs Wilson polls have Wilson up 10 in the South Carolina Policy Council survey.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current South Carolina Senate race 2026 and SC Governor race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Darline Graham | YES (73¢) | $136.99 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Annie Andrews | YES (28¢) | $357.14 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Darline Graham | YES (73¢) | $136.99 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Annie Andrews | YES (28¢) | $357.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Alan Wilson | YES (93¢) | $107.53 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Jermaine Johnson | YES (9¢) | $1,111.11 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Alan Wilson | YES (92.6¢) | $107.99 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Jermaine Johnson | YES (7.9¢) | $1,265.82 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race and SC Governor Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's South Carolina contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Senate and Governor markets resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price. Libertarian Kasie Whitener and Constitution Party candidate Mark Hackett are also on the Senate ballot, and Green Party candidate Walid Hakim is in the Governor race, so the derived No prices are approximations.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026
Polymarket tags the Senate race Lean R, and the Polymarket South Carolina Senate race board still prices Graham as a clear favorite even with the polling this tight.
Darline Graham (YES 73¢ / NO 28¢)
A 73¢ price implies a 73% chance, and the case for Graham is partly structural. She is the appointed incumbent and the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, and Trump won South Carolina by nearly 18 points in 2024.
The president has now rallied for her twice in eight days, in Pendleton on October 21 and in Rock Hill on Thursday. The Citadel Poll gave her a 4-point lead this week, one of the stronger Graham vs Andrews polls for her side, though she has also been warning Republicans that a write-in or third-party vote effectively helps Andrews.
Annie Andrews (YES 28¢ / NO 73¢)
At 28¢, Andrews carries a 28% implied chance, which looks light next to the New York Times/Siena poll released Wednesday that had her tied with Graham at 48%.
That survey showed Andrews with 57% of independents and 7% of Republicans, and 54% of voters said she has the right experience for the job. Former governors David Beasley, a Republican, and Jim Hodges, a Democrat, also endorsed her earlier this week.
SC Governor Race
Polymarket labels the governor's race Safe R, and the Johnson vs Wilson polls give traders little reason to disagree.
Alan Wilson (YES 93¢ / NO 9¢, +3 pts)
Wilson, the state attorney general, won the Republican runoff after Trump offered him a co-endorsement, and the South Carolina Policy Council survey conducted October 16-25 had him ahead 51-41.
A Resonance Media poll from late September and early October found the same 10-point gap at 45-35.
Jermaine Johnson (YES 9¢ / NO 93¢, -2 pts)
Johnson, a state representative, is trying to become the first Democrat to win the governor's race since Hodges in 1998.
His best number came in a Hart Research survey for his own campaign, which tightened to a 2-point race only after respondents heard positive descriptions of both candidates.
Kalshi South Carolina Senate Race and SC Governor Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the Kalshi South Carolina Senate race board shows both sides of each price directly.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and Kalshi's Governor market has already traded $158,240 in volume.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026
Kalshi's board for the South Carolina Senate race 2026 matches Polymarket to the cent on both candidates.
Darline Graham (YES 73¢ / NO 28¢)
Graham at 73¢ is more bullish than Decision Desk HQ, which NewsNation reports gives her a 65% chance of winning.
Decision Desk HQ's own polling average has her ahead by just 45.5% to 44%, which is the gap between the exchanges' confidence and the survey data.
Annie Andrews (YES 28¢ / NO 73¢)
Andrews at 28¢ sits level with Graham's NO price, so the Senate board has none of the pricing quirks that show up in the Governor race below.
Her campaign has far outraised Graham's, per NewsNation's coverage, and the Senate Leadership Fund responded by planning a $5 million investment for Graham. An Impact Research poll for a super PAC backing Andrews had her up 45-44, though that survey comes from a friendly sponsor.
SC Governor Race
Kalshi's Governor board sits within about a cent of Polymarket on both candidates, and its own margin forecast has the Republican up 11.7 points.
Alan Wilson (YES 92.6¢ / NO 7.5¢, +3 pts)
Wilson's 92.6¢ is the softest price he has on either exchange, and the 11.7-point forecast lines up with the 10-point Policy Council gap.
PollCheck's polling average through October 27 had him at 50.0% to Johnson's 39.6%.
Jermaine Johnson (YES 7.9¢ / NO 92.6¢, -3 pts)
The board shows a small quirk: a Wilson NO at 7.5¢ is cheaper than a Johnson YES at 7.9¢, even though a Johnson win is the main way that Wilson NO pays.
That gap is structural, since NO on the favorite pays on any other outcome, including a third-party result, while Johnson's YES pays only if he wins and trades on a thinner order book.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race
The two boards agree on every favorite. Graham sits at YES 73¢ on both exchanges, while Wilson is at YES 93¢ on Polymarket and YES 92.6¢ on Kalshi.
The underdogs tell the same story in reverse. Andrews trades at YES 28¢ on both platforms, and Johnson is at YES 9¢ on Polymarket and YES 7.9¢ on Kalshi.
The only real price gap is Johnson, where Polymarket gives him 1.1¢ more than Kalshi, which is small enough to read as noise rather than a signal.
The bigger divergence is between the exchanges and the Graham vs Andrews polls. The New York Times/Siena poll has the South Carolina Senate race 2026 tied at 48-48, yet neither board has Graham below YES 73¢.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is in what they publish. Polymarket tags the races Lean R and Safe R, Kalshi shows an 11.7-point Republican margin forecast for the Governor race, and neither exchange has a Governor-Senate combo board here.
Graham vs Andrews Polls and Johnson vs Wilson Polls: Market Price Influencers
The Senate boards are the story. Both exchanges hold Graham at 73¢ and Andrews at 28¢, and the Graham vs Andrews polls are the reason that number is under pressure.
The Citadel Poll gave Graham a 4-point edge on Tuesday, the South Carolina Policy Council survey had her up 47-46 and the New York Times/Siena poll landed at 48-48 a day later. PollCheck's average through October 27 had her up 47.0% to 45.2%, and Decision Desk HQ's average has her up 45.5% to 44%.
Turnout adds a wrinkle. More than 753,000 South Carolinians had voted early as of Wednesday, about 21% of registered voters and well above the roughly 561,000 early votes cast in 2022.
Analysts note that heavy early voting has traditionally helped Democrats, and that Republicans have often closed the gap on Election Day. Early voting ends Saturday, and the Rock Hill rally sat in the home district of Rep. Ralph Norman, who has declined to help Graham.
The governor's board is quieter. The Johnson vs Wilson polls show Wilson up about 10 points in the Policy Council and Resonance surveys, and both exchanges show Wilson with a +3 movement indicator and Johnson down 2 to 3 points.
The next repricing trigger is any late poll, the final early-voting totals on Saturday and Election Day turnout on Tuesday, with polls closing at 7 p.m. Eastern.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Darline Graham | YES (73¢) | $136.99 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Annie Andrews | YES (28¢) | $357.14 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Darline Graham | YES (73¢) | $136.99 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Annie Andrews | YES (28¢) | $357.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Alan Wilson | YES (93¢) | $107.53 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Jermaine Johnson | YES (9¢) | $1,111.11 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Alan Wilson | YES (92.6¢) | $107.99 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Jermaine Johnson | YES (7.9¢) | $1,265.82 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
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Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race: Final Thoughts
This is a Senate race priced as a Republican lean against a polling picture that has drifted to a tie, and a Governor race priced as a near lock with the only open question being the margin.
Watch the Senate board for the clearest read. The gap between a 73¢ Graham and a 48-48 NYT/Siena result is the number most likely to close before November 3, and the final early-voting totals and Election Day turnout will decide which way.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race FAQs
What are the current South Carolina Senate Race 2026 odds?
Darline Graham is trading at 73¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Annie Andrews sits at 28¢ on both exchanges.
Who is favored in the SC Governor Race?
Alan Wilson is the heavy favorite at 93¢ on Polymarket and 92.6¢ on Kalshi, with Jermaine Johnson priced at 9¢ and 7.9¢, respectively.
What do the latest Graham vs Andrews polls show?
The race is a toss-up in several surveys. The New York Times/Siena poll has Graham and Andrews tied at 48%, the South Carolina Policy Council has Graham up 47-46 and the Citadel Poll has her up 4 points.
What do the latest Johnson vs Wilson polls show?
Wilson leads 51-41 in the South Carolina Policy Council poll conducted October 16-25, and he led 45-35 in a Resonance Media survey from late September and early October.
What are the Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race odds?
The Polymarket South Carolina Senate race board has Graham at 73¢ and Andrews at 28¢, and tags the race Lean R.
What are the Kalshi South Carolina Senate Race odds?
The Kalshi South Carolina Senate race board has Graham at 73¢ YES and 28¢ NO, and Andrews at 28¢ YES and 73¢ NO.
How do Graham vs Andrews polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more confident than the polls. Both exchanges keep Graham at 73¢ even though the New York Times/Siena poll showed a 48-48 tie and polling averages have her ahead by only 1.5 to 1.8 points.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the SC Governor Race slightly differently?
The boards are within about a cent of each other. Small gaps like Johnson at 9¢ versus 7.9¢ usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
When does early voting end in South Carolina?
Early voting ends Saturday, November 1, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. More than 753,000 South Carolinians had already voted early as of Wednesday.
How do I trade the South Carolina Senate race and SC Governor race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
