The South Carolina Senate race 2026 goes to voters today with Darline Graham at 70¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, three cents below where she traded on Friday.
- Graham, Annie Andrews, Alan Wilson and Jermaine Johnson all have live contracts on both exchanges, and Polymarket also lists margin of victory brackets for the Senate race and the SC governor race.
- Graham vs Andrews polls run from a dead heat to a 4-point Graham lead, while Johnson vs Wilson polls show Wilson ahead by about 10.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current South Carolina Senate race 2026 and SC governor race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's where the money sits on both platforms with polls open until 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Darline Graham | YES (70¢) | $142.86 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Annie Andrews | YES (32¢) | $312.50 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Darline Graham | YES (70¢) | $142.86 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Annie Andrews | YES (31¢) | $322.58 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| South Carolina Senate Margin | Polymarket | Republicans by 0-5% | YES (41¢) | $243.90 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Alan Wilson | YES (96¢) | $104.17 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Jermaine Johnson | YES (5¢) | $2,000.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Alan Wilson | YES (95.3¢) | $104.93 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Jermaine Johnson | YES (5.3¢) | $1,886.79 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Margin | Polymarket | Republicans by 10-15% | YES (24¢) | $416.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
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Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race and SC Governor Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's South Carolina contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Polymarket South Carolina Senate race and the governor's market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election, and each board lists results as expected at 7 p.m.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices for the standalone candidate markets below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price. That is an approximation here, since Libertarian Kasie Whitener and the Constitution Party's Mark Hackett are also on the Senate ballot, while the Green Party's Walid Hakim and the United Citizens Party's Michael Addison join the field for governor.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026
Polymarket still tags the race Lean R, but its chart shows a steady slide for Graham since September and a late climb for Andrews.
Darline Graham (YES 70¢ / NO 32¢, +1 pts)
Graham is up 1 point on the board's latest move, though she is still 3¢ below the 73¢ she carried last Friday. A 70% implied probability is a sizable edge in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998.
Her case rests on the party label and the president's backing. Trump rallied in Rock Hill on Oct. 29, in Upstate territory Ralph Norman carried in the primary, and Wilson has urged Republicans to unite behind her.
Annie Andrews (YES 32¢ / NO 70¢)
Andrews is priced at 32¢, four cents better than Friday's 28¢. The New York Times/Siena survey that reshaped this market had her tied with Graham at 48%, with only 3% of voters undecided.
The support behind her is bipartisan and national. Former governors David Beasley, a Republican, and Jim Hodges, a Democrat, endorsed her, and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer steered close to $1 million her way in the final stretch.
SC Governor Race 2026
The governor's board is far more settled, and Polymarket tags the race Safe R.
Alan Wilson (YES 96¢ / NO 5¢)
Wilson's 96¢ price is three cents above Friday's 93¢. The attorney general is the Republican nominee to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster.
The Johnson vs Wilson polls back that confidence. The South Carolina Policy Council had Wilson ahead 51-41, and PollCheck's average of six general election polls through Oct. 27 had him at 50.0% to 39.6%.
Jermaine Johnson (YES 5¢ / NO 96¢)
Johnson trades at 5¢, down from 9¢ on Friday, which implies roughly a 1-in-20 chance. A state representative and former professional basketball player, he is running against a Republican who has led in every public survey cited here.
The closest read for him came from his own campaign's pollster, whose August survey had Wilson up 50-42. The Policy Council's October result had the gap at ten.
Kalshi South Carolina Senate Race and SC Governor Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
🗳️ Where to Vote: Use the 'My Ballot' feature on Kalshi to find your local polling location and ballot info!
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both quoted on every line, so no price has to be derived.
Both contracts resolve by the winning party on November 3. The Kalshi South Carolina Senate race has traded about $10.98 million in volume, while the governor's market sits at $296,996.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026
Kalshi's Senate board has Graham at 70¢ YES and Andrews at 31¢ YES, a cent less for Andrews than Polymarket.
Darline Graham (YES 70¢ / NO 31¢)
Kalshi's board displays a 69% chance beside the 70¢ YES price. She was at 73¢ here on Friday, so the Kalshi South Carolina Senate race board has given back three cents.
The Graham vs Andrews polls that matter most to this price are the Policy Council survey, which had her up 47-46 with Whitener at 2% and Hackett at 1%, and a Citadel survey that had her ahead by 4 among registered voters.
Annie Andrews (YES 31¢ / NO 70¢)
Andrews is at 31¢, up from 28¢ on Friday, and Kalshi prices her a cent below Polymarket's 32¢.
Republican defections are the variable traders keep returning to. Norman's son Warren wrote that he will vote for Andrews, and a social media write-in effort for Norman himself is circulating even though Norman says he is not involved.
SC Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's governor board is much thinner, since the Senate market has traded about 37 times as much volume.
Alan Wilson (YES 95.3¢ / NO 5.8¢, -1.3 pts)
Kalshi displays Wilson at a 95% chance, down 1.3 points on the latest move, even though his 95.3¢ YES price is 2.4¢ above Friday's 92.9¢. Polymarket has him a touch higher at 96¢.
A 95¢ price against a polling lead of roughly 10 points fits a state Donald Trump carried by 18 points in 2024.
Jermaine Johnson (YES 5.3¢ / NO 95¢, +1.3 pts)
Johnson is up 1.3 points on the latest move at 5.3¢, still well below Friday's 7.8¢. Kalshi prices him 0.3¢ above Polymarket's 5¢, the one place on either board where Kalshi is the friendlier exchange for a Democrat.
The Policy Council's 51-41 result leaves 8% undecided or backing other candidates, a pool that includes the Green and United Citizens nominees.
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Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race and SC Governor Race Margin of Victory Bets
Polymarket also lists margin of victory brackets for both races, which lets traders bet on how wide the gap will be as well as on who wins. These markets quote both sides directly, so unlike the candidate markets above, no No price is derived.
In the Senate race, the bracket for a Republican win by 0-5 points is priced at 41¢ YES and 60¢ NO, down 1 point on the latest move. With Graham at 70¢ overall, that means 41¢ of her price sits in this one narrow bracket, a shape that fits a race Siena had tied at 48%.
In the governor's race, the bracket for a Republican win by 10-15 points is priced at 24¢ YES. The NO side is quoted at 99¢ on the board, an unusually wide gap from the YES price that points to a thin book, so check the live order book before trading it. The bracket covers the 10.4-point gap in PollCheck's polling average.
Polymarket lists additional brackets for each race, and the two featured below are the ones on the boards when these prices were captured.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Senate: Republican wins by 0-5 points | YES 41¢ | NO 60¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Governor: Republican wins by 10-15 points | YES 24¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race
The two boards agree on every favorite. Graham is at YES 70¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Wilson is at YES 96¢ on Polymarket and YES 95.3¢ on Kalshi.
The underdogs sit within a cent of each other. Andrews trades at YES 32¢ on Polymarket and YES 31¢ on Kalshi, and Johnson is at YES 5¢ and YES 5.3¢, respectively.
The friendlier exchange for Democrats flips by race. Polymarket gives Andrews an extra cent in the Senate race, while Kalshi gives Johnson an extra 0.3¢ in the governor's race, gaps small enough to read as noise.
The bigger divergence is between the boards and the surveys. Siena had the Senate race tied at 48% and the Policy Council had Graham up one, yet both boards still hold her at YES 70¢.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is in depth and product. Kalshi's Senate market has traded about 37 times the volume of its governor's market, and the margin of victory brackets in this piece come from Polymarket alone.
Graham vs Andrews Polls and Johnson vs Wilson Polls: South Carolina Price Analysis and Market Price Influencers
The biggest move since Friday is in the South Carolina Senate race 2026. Graham slipped from 73¢ to 70¢ on both exchanges, and Andrews rose from 28¢ to 32¢ on Polymarket and 31¢ on Kalshi.
The Graham vs Andrews polls behind that shift run from the Siena tie to a 4-point Graham lead in the Citadel survey. Very few voters are left to persuade, with 3% undecided in Siena and 4% in the Policy Council poll, so a small third-party or write-in total can matter in a race this tight.
Turnout is the other variable. South Carolina recorded 1,043,810 early ballots from Oct. 19 through Oct. 31, a midterm record that nearly doubles the 561,563 cast early in 2022, and The Post and Courier reported that could be as much as a third of the final total.
Greenville County led with 104,608 early ballots, followed by Charleston County at 99,275 and Richland County at 92,575, which gives both campaigns something to point to.
The Republican fracture is the wildcard. A write-in push for Norman emerged after his August loss, and Trump's Oct. 29 stop in Rock Hill was aimed squarely at pulling Upstate Republicans back toward Graham.
The governor's race has barely been a contest by comparison. The Johnson vs Wilson polls, including Wilson's 51-41 Policy Council lead and PollCheck's 10.4-point average, line up with a price of 96¢ on Polymarket and 95.3¢ on Kalshi, while Johnson has slid to 5¢ and 5.3¢.
The next repricing trigger is the count itself. Polls close at 7 p.m. ET, the first results should appear shortly afterward as early votes are posted to scvotes.gov, and early totals are typically reported before Election Day ballots, so the boards can move sharply as the count fills in.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Darline Graham | YES (70¢) | $142.86 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Annie Andrews | YES (32¢) | $312.50 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Darline Graham | YES (70¢) | $142.86 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Annie Andrews | YES (31¢) | $322.58 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| South Carolina Senate Margin | Polymarket | Republicans by 0-5% | YES (41¢) | $243.90 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Alan Wilson | YES (96¢) | $104.17 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Jermaine Johnson | YES (5¢) | $2,000.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Alan Wilson | YES (95.3¢) | $104.93 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Jermaine Johnson | YES (5.3¢) | $1,886.79 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Margin | Polymarket | Republicans by 10-15% | YES (24¢) | $416.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
How to Trade the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
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Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race: Final Thoughts
These are two races with very different personalities: a Senate contest where both boards price Graham at 70¢ despite a Siena tie, and a governor's race where Wilson sits at 95.3¢ to 96¢.
Watch the Polymarket South Carolina Senate race and Kalshi South Carolina Senate race boards when the first results post after 7 p.m., and use the margin of victory brackets to see how narrow traders expect the final gap to be.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race FAQs
What are the current South Carolina Senate Race 2026 odds?
Darline Graham is trading at 70¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Annie Andrews sits at 32¢ on Polymarket and 31¢ on Kalshi.
Who is favored in the SC Governor Race?
Alan Wilson is the heavy favorite at 96¢ on Polymarket and 95.3¢ on Kalshi, with Jermaine Johnson priced at 5¢ and 5.3¢, respectively.
What do the latest Graham vs Andrews polls show?
The race is level in the newest major survey. A New York Times/Siena poll had Graham and Andrews tied at 48%, the South Carolina Policy Council poll of Oct. 16-25 had Graham ahead 47-46, and a Citadel survey had her up 4 among registered voters.
What do the latest Johnson vs Wilson polls show?
Wilson leads 51-41 in the South Carolina Policy Council poll conducted Oct. 16-25, and PollCheck's average of six general election polls through Oct. 27 had him ahead 50.0% to 39.6%.
What are the Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race odds?
The Polymarket South Carolina Senate race board has Graham at 70¢ and Andrews at 32¢, and tags the race Lean R.
What are the Kalshi South Carolina Senate Race odds?
The Kalshi South Carolina Senate race board has Graham at 70¢ YES and 31¢ NO, and Andrews at 31¢ YES and 70¢ NO.
What do the Polymarket margin of victory markets show?
In the Senate race, a Republican win by 0-5 points is priced at 41¢ YES and 60¢ NO. In the governor's race, a Republican win by 10-15 points is priced at 24¢ YES.
When do South Carolina polls close and when will results come in?
Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 3, and the first results should appear shortly after 7 p.m. as early votes are posted to scvotes.gov. A record 1,043,810 ballots were cast early.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the SC Governor Race slightly differently?
The boards are within a cent of each other. Small gaps like Johnson at 5¢ on Polymarket versus 5.3¢ on Kalshi usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
How do I trade the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before the market resolves.
