The Texas Senate race reaches Election Day with Polymarket pricing Democrat James Talarico at 74¢ and Kalshi at 73¢, even as the final Talarico vs Paxton polls stretch from a 1-point Paxton edge to a 7-point Talarico lead.
Republican Ken Paxton is at 28¢ on Polymarket and 29¢ on Kalshi, up 3 points on both boards, so the Polymarket Texas Senate market and the Texas Senate Kalshi board have each narrowed since the last update.
Polls are open until 7 p.m. local time on Tuesday, November 3, and here is where the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket and Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi money sits before the first results arrive.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Texas Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | James Talarico | YES (74¢) | $132.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ken Paxton | YES (28¢) | $340.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | James Talarico | YES (73¢) | $134.43 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ken Paxton | YES (29¢) | $328.48 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Right now, you can use the Polymarket promo code ACTION and you'll be able to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!
Polymarket Texas Senate Odds: Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket Top Trading Contracts
Each Polymarket share costs between 1¢ and 99¢, and that price doubles as an implied probability, so a Yes share on Talarico at 74¢ pays $1.00 if he wins the seat.
The contract settles on the winner of the November 3 general election, and the board tags the race Lean D with results expected tonight at 8 p.m.
Polymarket's trade tickets quote both sides directly, so each No price below comes from the ticket rather than being derived from the opposing candidate's Yes price.
James Talarico (YES 74¢ / NO 27¢, -1 pts)
Talarico gave back a point on the Polymarket Texas Senate board, but 74¢ still makes him the clear favorite in the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket market.
Turnout is the strongest piece of his case. More than 7.7 million Texans voted early, a 40.5% turnout rate that topped the 2018 midterm record, according to the Texas Tribune's read of preliminary Secretary of State data.
The Tribune also reported higher turnout than in prior midterms in Harris, Dallas and Tarrant counties, and KHOU found that more than 763,000 early voters sat out 2024, nearly half of them Hispanic.
A win would make Talarico the first Democrat elected statewide in Texas since 1994 and the first Democratic senator since 1988.
Ken Paxton (YES 28¢ / NO 73¢, +3 pts)
Paxton gained 3 points, and a 28¢ price implies better than a one-in-four chance.
The final Talarico vs Paxton polls are tighter than the biggest headline leads. Emerson College's October 31 to November 1 survey of 500 likely voters had Talarico up only 50% to 48%, and the RealClearPolling average has him ahead by 2.5 points.
Emerson's earlier release flagged a possible Paxton tailwind. Its October 17 to 19 poll had Libertarian Ted Brown at 3%, and Emerson's Spencer Kimball said Paxton's share would likely rise if that support melted away by Election Day.
Paxton closed Monday in Allen, at a Tex-Mex restaurant, after canceling a planned Alamo finish to his "Come and Take It" bus tour. He urged Republicans to turn out and warned that a Talarico win could help Democrats take the Senate.
Polymarket's Margin of Victory tab also prices how big a Talarico win could be, not only whether it happens.
- Democrats by 0-3% (YES 62¢ / NO 72¢, +37 pts): The narrow-win bucket is up 37 points on the board, and a close Democratic win at that price fits the 2.5-point polling average and Emerson's 2-point final read.
Texas Senate Kalshi Odds: Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi Top Trading Contracts
🗳️ Where to Vote: Use the 'My Ballot' feature on Kalshi to find your local polling location and ballot info!
Kalshi lists the race as a regulated event contract that resolves by winning party, with Yes and No both tradable on each candidate.
The board is already live, and prices will start reacting to actual returns once polls close and counties begin reporting.
James Talarico (YES 73¢ / NO 28¢, -3 pts)
Kalshi now has Talarico a cent below Polymarket, a reversal from the last update, and the Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi board shows a 3-point drop.
The slide has some polling cover. Emerson's final survey has him up just 2, while NYT/Siena at 50-43 and YouGov at 51-47 still show leads of 7 and 4.
Ken Paxton (YES 29¢ / NO 72¢, +3 pts)
Paxton gained 3 points on the Texas Senate Kalshi board and sits a cent above his Polymarket price, a 29¢ contract that implies roughly a three-in-ten chance.
His path runs through today. Rice University's Mark Jones told the Texas Tribune the open question is how many votes are still out there, and with 40.5% already cast, a large share of the electorate is voting on Election Day.
Similarly to Polymarket, you can sign up with the Kalshi promo code to claim a trading bonus.
Enter Kalshi promo code ACTION55 when signing up and you'll be able to Trade $25, Get $55!
How Polymarket Texas Senate and Texas Senate Kalshi Prices Compare
The exchanges agree on the favorite. Talarico sits at YES 74¢ on Polymarket and YES 73¢ on Kalshi, while Paxton is at YES 28¢ and YES 29¢, respectively.
The one-cent edge has flipped since the last update. Kalshi had Talarico higher then, and Polymarket is now the firmer Talarico exchange, with Paxton's No at NO 73¢ there and NO 72¢ on Kalshi.
The trade tickets show where the real differences sit. A $100 Talarico ticket returns $132.00 on Polymarket and $134.43 on Kalshi, while a $100 Paxton ticket returns $340.00 on Polymarket and $328.48 on Kalshi, so the underdog pays $11.52 more on Polymarket.
Polymarket also carries a Margin of Victory tab, which lets traders price the size of a Talarico win and not just whether it happens.
The bigger gap is between the exchanges and the surveys. The polling averages put Talarico ahead by 2.5 and 4 points, yet neither exchange prices him below YES 73¢.
Texas Senate Race Price Analysis: Talarico vs Paxton Polls and Market Price Influencers
Both exchanges moved toward Paxton since the last update, when Polymarket had Talarico at 75¢ and Paxton at 25¢ and Kalshi had them at 76¢ and 26¢. Polymarket now has them at 74¢ and 28¢, and Kalshi at 73¢ and 29¢.
The averages of the Talarico vs Paxton polls explain why neither exchange has Talarico near 80¢. RealClearPolling's average of surveys fielded October 15 to November 1 has him up 2.5 points, and FiftyPlusOne's average has him up 4.
Early voting is the unknown. KHOU noted that early-vote data does not show which candidates those voters backed, and counties tend to release nearly all early and absentee results in the first update of the night, so the first batch should show how the 7.7 million early ballots broke.
Polymarket's Margin of Victory tab adds a second read, with a narrow Democratic win in the 0-3% range priced at 62¢.
The campaigns ended on different notes. Talarico closed his 21-stop "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" tour at Stubb's in Austin, framing the race as working families against a corrupt system, while Paxton made a late appeal to Republican voters.
The next repricing trigger is the first county returns after 7 p.m. local time, followed by how Election Day turnout compares with the early vote.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | James Talarico | YES (74¢) | $132.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ken Paxton | YES (28¢) | $340.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | James Talarico | YES (73¢) | $134.43 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ken Paxton | YES (29¢) | $328.48 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Texas Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Texas Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This Texas Senate race is one the exchanges price as a roughly 74% Talarico win, with Polymarket at 74¢ and Kalshi at 73¢, while the polling averages show him ahead by only 2.5 to 4 points.
The first returns, and how the 7.7 million early ballots compare with Election Day turnout, will show which side of that gap was right.
Texas Senate Race FAQs
Who is favored to win the Texas Senate race?
Democrat James Talarico is the favorite at 74¢ on Polymarket and 73¢ on Kalshi, while Republican Ken Paxton sits at 28¢ on Polymarket and 29¢ on Kalshi.
What do the latest Talarico vs Paxton polls show?
Most final polls favor Talarico, with NYT/Siena at 50-43, YouGov at 51-47 and Emerson at 50-48, but Quantus Insights had Paxton ahead 49-48. The RealClearPolling average has Talarico up 2.5 points and FiftyPlusOne has him up 4.
What are the current Polymarket Texas Senate odds?
The Polymarket Texas Senate board has Talarico at 74¢, down 1 point, and Paxton at 28¢, up 3 points.
Where can I trade the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket market?
You can trade the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket market on Polymarket's Texas Senate election event page, or use the switchboard links in this article to jump straight to the order book.
What are the Texas Senate Kalshi odds for Talarico and Paxton?
The Texas Senate Kalshi market has Talarico at 73¢, down 3 points, and Paxton at 29¢, up 3 points, and it resolves by winning party.
How does the Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi market differ from Polymarket?
The Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi prices sit within a cent of Polymarket, and the cent has flipped since the last update, with Polymarket now the firmer Talarico exchange. Polymarket also carries a Margin of Victory tab.
What is Polymarket's Margin of Victory market for the Texas Senate race?
Polymarket's Margin of Victory tab prices the size of a win, and its Democrats by 0-3% bucket shows YES 62¢ and NO 72¢, up 37 points on the board.
How many Texans voted early in the Texas Senate race?
More than 7.7 million Texans voted early, a 40.5% turnout rate that topped the 2018 midterm record, according to the Texas Tribune's report on preliminary Secretary of State data.
When do polls close in Texas on Election Day?
Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time on Tuesday, November 3, and anyone in line at 7 p.m. can still vote. Polymarket's board lists results as expected at 8 p.m.
How do I trade the Texas Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a Yes or No share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before it settles.
