The Polymarket promo code (ACTION) is my pick as the top prediction market promo to use on today's Thunder-Mavericks game in Dallas. My favorite Thunder vs. Mavs prediction markets to trade today are Thunder vs. Mavs player props.
- Oklahoma City Thunder (4-0): The Thunder beat Phoenix 125-114 on Monday and are still unbeaten. But they are down Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso, and Ajay Mitchell is listed as questionable.
- Dallas Mavericks (2-2): Dallas won at Miami 113-109 on Monday behind Cooper Flagg's 29 points and 11 assists. Kyrie Irving is listed as questionable with a knee issue.
Here is every one of my Thunder vs. Mavs player props picks at a glance, built from ten Polymarket buy tickets on the board available on one of the best prediction markets.
| 🏀 NBA Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 4+ Rebounds | Yes | 63% | $154.45 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Max Christie 2+ Three-Pointers | Yes | 63% | $154.74 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jared McCain 3+ Three-Pointers | Yes | 61% | $159.60 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ Three-Pointers | Yes | 61% | $159.60 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Isaiah Hartenstein 10+ Points | Yes | 58% | $167.51 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Isaiah Hartenstein 10+ Rebounds | Yes | 54% | $180.84 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| P.J. Washington 15+ Points | Yes | 51% | $189.85 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Cooper Flagg 25+ Points | Yes | 49% | $197.10 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Daniel Gafford 8+ Rebounds | Yes | 48% | $202.10 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 35+ Points | Yes | 37% | $259.54 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Read our Action Network dedicated Polymarket review to learn more, or check out more prediction market promo codes for other platforms.
Thunder vs. Mavs Player Props: My 10 Best Polymarket Trades
Every pick below is a real Polymarket buy ticket, priced as of this writing, and together they make up the best NBA player props today for this game. New to the market? Start with the best prediction market apps, then head to our NBA hub for more coverage.
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Best Rebounds Prop Today – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 4+ Rebounds
| 🏀 NBA Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 4+ Rebounds | Yes | 63% | $154.45 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
With Chet Holmgren out and Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso also sidelined, Oklahoma City is leaning harder on its stars to fill every gap. Gilgeous-Alexander finished with three rebounds against Phoenix on Monday, one shy of this line.
A thinner rotation can push more of the board work onto him, and he only needs four. That is a modest number for the player carrying a banged-up roster.
At an average price of 63.13¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 158 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If it hits: $154.45 back on the $100 buy.
- If it misses: the full $100 is lost.
That is a payout of roughly 1.5x on the stake.
Best Three-Pointers Prop Today – Max Christie 2+ Three-Pointers
| 🏀 NBA Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Christie 2+ Three-Pointers | Yes | 63% | $154.74 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Christie made three of his six three-point attempts in Dallas' win at Miami on Monday and finished with 11 points. He also scored 16 at Indiana last Friday.
Cooper Flagg found him for an early corner three against the Heat, and that kind of catch-and-shoot look should keep coming. He was dealing with a shin contusion last weekend but still played roughly 26 minutes Monday.
At an average price of 63¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 159 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If it hits: $154.74 back on the $100 buy.
- If it misses: the full $100 is lost.
That is a payout of roughly 1.5x on the stake.
Best Three-Pointers Prop Today – Jared McCain 3+ Three-Pointers
| 🏀 NBA Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jared McCain 3+ Three-Pointers | Yes | 61% | $159.60 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
McCain stepped into the starting lineup for Wallace on Monday and scored 18 points against Phoenix, including four three-pointers.
Wallace is out with a shoulder injury, so McCain's role looks secure for now, and Ajay Mitchell's questionable tag could mean even more usage. Four threes in one game is a small sample, so 3+ is far from a lock.
At an average price of 61¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 164 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If it hits: $159.60 back on the $100 buy.
- If it misses: the full $100 is lost.
That is a payout of roughly 1.6x on the stake.
Best Three-Pointers Prop Today – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ Three-Pointers
| 🏀 NBA Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ Three-Pointers | Yes | 61% | $159.60 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Gilgeous-Alexander attempted at least five threes against Phoenix on Monday, so volume is not the question. He is again the Thunder's primary creator with Williams, Wallace and Caruso all out.
Two makes is a modest hurdle, but pull-up threes are streaky. Mitchell's ankle status is worth a check before tip, since a healthy Mitchell takes some creation off Gilgeous-Alexander's plate.
At an average price of 61¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 164 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If it hits: $159.60 back on the $100 buy.
- If it misses: the full $100 is lost.
That is a payout of roughly 1.6x on the stake.
Best Points Prop Today – Isaiah Hartenstein 10+ Points
| 🏀 NBA Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Hartenstein 10+ Points | Yes | 58% | $167.51 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Hartenstein scored 15 points on Monday as part of a front line that has to cover for Holmgren.
He finishes at the rim and off lobs from Mitchell and Gilgeous-Alexander, which keeps his scoring floor reasonable even when the offense runs through the guards. Ten points is a lower bar than the 15 he posted against Phoenix.
At an average price of 58¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 172 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If it hits: $167.51 back on the $100 buy.
- If it misses: the full $100 is lost.
That is a payout of roughly 1.7x on the stake.
Best Rebounds Prop Today – Isaiah Hartenstein 10+ Rebounds
| 🏀 NBA Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Hartenstein 10+ Rebounds | Yes | 54% | $180.84 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Hartenstein grabbed 13 rebounds against Phoenix, and Holmgren's knee tendinitis keeps him out again. That leaves Hartenstein and Aday Mara to share the work inside.
Mara had 11 rebounds of his own on Monday, so the Thunder have another body on the glass, and that is the main risk to this ticket. Ten boards is still a fair ask for a center who just posted 13.
At an average price of 53.57¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 187 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If it hits: $180.84 back on the $100 buy.
- If it misses: the full $100 is lost.
That is a payout of roughly 1.8x on the stake.
Best Points Prop Today – P.J. Washington 15+ Points
| 🏀 NBA Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington 15+ Points | Yes | 51% | $189.85 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Washington scored 20 points in Dallas' win at Miami on Monday and had 20 points and 13 rebounds in the win at Indiana. He has hit that mark in both of the Mavericks' wins this season.
He took 15 shots against the Heat and made four threes, so the volume is there. If Kyrie Irving is limited, more shot attempts could flow his way.
At an average price of 50.93¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 196 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If it hits: $189.85 back on the $100 buy.
- If it misses: the full $100 is lost.
That is a payout of roughly 1.9x on the stake.
Best Points Prop Today – Cooper Flagg 25+ Points
| 🏀 NBA Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg 25+ Points | Yes | 49% | $197.10 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Flagg had 29 points and 11 assists in Monday's win at Miami, shooting 12 of 23, two days after a left shoulder sprain kept him out of Saturday's loss to San Antonio.
He is not on the Mavericks' injury report for this game as of this writing, but the shoulder is worth a recheck before tip. Twenty-five is a big number and Dallas has other scorers, so this price reflects real risk.
At an average price of 49¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 204 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If it hits: $197.10 back on the $100 buy.
- If it misses: the full $100 is lost.
That is a payout of just under a 2x on the stake.
Best Rebounds Prop Today – Daniel Gafford 8+ Rebounds
| 🏀 NBA Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Gafford 8+ Rebounds | Yes | 48% | $202.10 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Gafford grabbed nine rebounds in about 26 minutes at Miami on Monday, and Dereck Lively II is listed out again, which keeps Gafford in a bigger role.
Hartenstein and Mara combined for 24 rebounds against Phoenix, so Gafford will be fighting for every board. Eight is a real ask, which is why this one pays better than 2x.
At an average price of 47.75¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 209 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes. Polymarket's board shows 46%, but the ticket fills at that higher average price, so I use it in the table.
- If it hits: $202.10 back on the $100 buy.
- If it misses: the full $100 is lost.
That is a payout of just over a 2x on the stake.
Best Points Prop Today – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 35+ Points
| 🏀 NBA Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 35+ Points | Yes | 37% | $259.54 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Gilgeous-Alexander scored 26 points on 11-of-18 shooting against Phoenix while dealing with foul trouble, so 35 would take a clear step up. The upside case is the roster.
With Williams, Wallace and Caruso out and Mitchell questionable, Oklahoma City has fewer ways to score than usual. The downside is that Kalshi lists the Thunder as 6.5-point favorites, which can mean fewer fourth-quarter minutes if the game gets out of hand.
At an average price of 36.91¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 271 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If it hits: $259.54 back on the $100 buy.
- If it misses: the full $100 is lost.
That is a payout of roughly 2.6x on the stake.
What's Moving the Market in This Thunder vs. Mavs Prediction
Ticket prices for this Thunder vs. Mavs prediction cluster in the 50s and low 60s for most role-player lines, with Gilgeous-Alexander 4+ rebounds and Christie 2+ three-pointers at the top of my board at 63%.
Gilgeous-Alexander 35+ points sits at the other end at 37%. Oklahoma City is missing four rotation players and Mitchell is questionable, while Dallas has Irving questionable and Lively out.
Those absences may help explain some of the prices, though that is my read and not something the board states.
Prediction markets can shift quickly around injury news, so check the final injury report and refresh the board before you trade. Polymarket does not show the reason behind any move.
How to Trade These Picks on Polymarket
Ready to get in on these Thunder vs. Mavs player props? Here's exactly how to claim the bonus and start trading:
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
- When you're ready, sign up with Polymarket promo code ACTION to get started!
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Final Thoughts on the Best NBA Player Props Today
My Thunder vs. Mavs player props lean on role and opportunity. Injuries have thinned both rotations, which puts more rebounds, threes and scoring in the hands of the players who are available.
If you are building a card from the best NBA player props today, the middle of this board offers the cleanest prices, while Gilgeous-Alexander 35+ points is the swing for bigger upside.
Recheck injury statuses for Mitchell, Irving and Flagg before you trade, and let the Thunder vs. Mavs prediction play out one prop at a time.
FAQs
What are the best Thunder vs. Mavs player props?
My Thunder vs. Mavs player props board has ten Polymarket trades, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 4+ rebounds and Max Christie 2+ three-pointers at the highest prices and Gilgeous-Alexander 35+ points as the longshot.
Prices reflect Polymarket ticket averages and can change before tip-off.
What is the Thunder vs. Mavs prediction for October 28?
Oklahoma City enters at 4-0 and Dallas is 2-2, but both teams are dealing with injuries. My Thunder vs. Mavs prediction is built around player props rather than a side, with a focus on rebounds, threes and scoring for the key players on both rosters.
Where can I find the best NBA player props today?
Prediction markets such as Polymarket list player prop contracts for NBA games. This article covers the best NBA player props today for Thunder vs. Mavs, and our NBA hub has more coverage for the rest of the slate.
How do player prop contracts work on Polymarket?
Each prop is a Yes or No contract that pays one dollar per share if the outcome happens and nothing if it does not. The price per share is the market's implied probability, so a contract priced at 50 cents implies roughly a 50 percent chance.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code in this article?
Create a Polymarket account, complete a qualifying deposit, and enter the promo code shown in this article during sign-up. Check the terms and conditions at the bottom of the article for eligibility details.
When do these Polymarket prop markets resolve?
Player prop contracts typically resolve after the game ends and official box score stats are final. If a game is postponed or a player does not play, check Polymarket's rules for that specific market.
Which injuries matter most for this game?
Oklahoma City is without Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso, and Ajay Mitchell is questionable. Dallas has Kyrie Irving listed as questionable and Dereck Lively II out.
Statuses can change before tip-off, so check the final injury report before you trade.
Why do the ticket prices differ from the Polymarket board price?
A buy ticket shows the average price your order fills at, which can sit above the headline percentage when liquidity is thin.
I use the ticket average in my tables, and the board showed 46 percent for Daniel Gafford 8+ rebounds against a ticket average of about 48 percent.
