Credit: USA TODAY Sports
- The 2019 NFL Draft begins on April 25 and will be held in Nashville, TN.
- Matthew Freedman breaks down the prop for how many Clemson players will be selected in Round 1.
Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
The Clemson Tigers won the 2019 College Football Playoff National Championship, beating Alabama in convincing fashion with a 44-16 victory.
And now they might see three of their defensive linemen selected in Round 1 of the 2019 NFL draft: Edge Clelin Ferrill and defensive tackles Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence.
The draft is rapidly approaching, and for the first time ever it will be held in Nashville, TN.
Here’s the seven-round schedule.
- Thursday, April 25: Round 1
- Friday, April 26: Rounds 2-3
- Saturday, April 27: Rounds 4-7
In this piece, I break down the prop for how many Clemson Tigers will be drafted on Day 1.
The Action Network NFL Podcast: Mock Draft & Player Props
I talk about this prop on the most recent episode of The Action Network NFL Podcast with Ian Hartitz. Check out the show to hear our full discussion on the props I’m betting for the NFL draft.
2019 NFL Draft: How Many Clemson Tigers Will Be Drafted in Round 1?
- Over 2.5: +120
- Under 2.5: -136
I like the over, and it’s not even close. This one might be my favorite draft prop.
For previous articles, I consulted the 20 most recent mocks of respected analysts, but only a few people have updated their drafts in the wake of the Frank Clark trade, in which the Kansas City Chiefs sent the No. 29 overall pick to the Seattle Seahawks.
So I’ve surveyed just six mocks for this piece, but I think that number is still sufficient, especially considering the consistency among the drafts and the high quality of the draftniks.
In five of the six mocks, all three Clemson defensive linemen are selected on Day 1. And in the lone dissenting draft (a two-rounder), the third Tiger is selected at pick No. 35.
In general, Wilkins is projected to go in the mid teens, Ferrell in the high teens and Lawrence in the mid 20s. All of them have been in each version of my Round 1 mock draft.
If we look at the average draft position in the mocks for any given Clemson alum, the first Tiger comes off the board at 13.2, the second at 20.7 and the third at 26.8.
Usually Wilkins and Ferrell are the first two Tigers drafted, but I still like Lawrence quite a bit and think he has a good chance of sticking in the top 32. If anything, he could go at No. 32 to the New England Patriots, who could use an infusion of talent along the defensive line after the free-agent departures of Trey Flowers, Malcom Brown and Danny Shelton.
At +120, there’s a 45.5% implied probability that at least three Clemson players will be drafted in Round 1, but the true odds I think are closer to 75%, maybe 80%.
I’d bet the over down to -250.
The Pick: Over 2.5 (+120)
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