5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Falcons vs. Panthers on TNF, Including Chuba Hubbard, D’Onta Foreman
Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: Chuba Hubbard
The most valuable props for Thursday Night Football's Falcons vs. Panthers involve all running backs.
In fact, it's an under on all of their totals.
That's what happens with a matchup between the fourth-worst (ATL) and fifth-worst (CAR) pass defenses in the NFL. Our projection models expect both teams to be extremely pass heavy against weakened secondaries.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Falcons vs. Panthers
- Chuba Hubbard under 34.5 rushing yards -115 (FanDuel)
- D'Onta Foreman under 1.5 receptions -170 (DraftKings)
- Chuba Hubbard under 11.5 receiving yards -115 (FanDuel)
- Cordarrelle Patterson under 13.5 rushing attempts +105 (DraftKings)
- D'Onta Foreman under 6.5 receiving yards -122 (FanDuel)
*Odds and data are as of Thursday afternoon. These are the market's most valuable prices.
The most valuable prop for Thursday Night Football's Falcons vs. Panthers is on Chuba Hubbard to rush for 34 yards or fewer. Our predictive analytics team thinks this line should be closer to 23 yards.
That gives the bet a roughly 20% betting edge. Essentially, you can expect to make $20 for every $100 wagered in the long run on these types of wagers.
Another way to think about it: You're getting a 20% discount on the true price of that prop bet.
Same goes for Hubbard's receiving yard prop. Our models project he'll land closer to six yards through the air. At the market's best price of u11.5 (-115), you're getting roughly 17% of value.
The under for D'Onta Foreman through the air is also valuable, according to our models.
Foreman's receiving yard prop under has roughly 13% of value while his receptions prop is currently at a 19% discount.
Cordarrelle Patterson is also expected to nab fewer carries because of the Panthers' pitiful pass defense. His under of 13.5 rushes at a vig of +105 provides about 14% of betting edge, according to our projections.
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