Longshot NFL OT Bet Hits, Highlights Strength of Action Network Modeling

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Action Network predictive analyst Nick Giffen created an unusual model for the 2023 NFL season.

Typically, models are made to handicap football games. However, Giffen's model helps predict which NFL games may go to overtime.

And the model netted Giffen $2,630 on a $10 bet.

Giffen bet a parlay on two different games to go into overtime. The first game was Chargers vs. Titans at +1500 odds.

The second was Seahawks vs. Lions at +1550 odds. Giffen wrote it as one of his favorite NFL Week 2 data-driven picks.

The parlay odds came in at +26300 and Giffen nailed it.

I wrote up one of these two legs of my +26300 winning parlay in our Predictive Analytics Best Bets this AM ✅️

Here's the piece: https://t.co/8Mg0iKLPubhttps://t.co/kjWtwEtUVtpic.twitter.com/t9Fw8CFWfE

— Nick Giffen (@RotoDoc) September 18, 2023

"I didn't really have a plan to bet overtimes," Giffen said. "It just kind of accidentally happened while I was preparing for one of our other shows."

Giffen's original plan was to find ROI value for same-game parlays. FanDuel doesn't offer overtime bets on their same-game parlay, so instead of creating a SGP, Giffen decided to parlay his two biggest Week 2 ROI overtime edges.

"I've never won something as crazy as this one, as wild as this one, because who would expect parlaying two games to go overtime to be a thing?" Giffen said. "It's definitely an odd market, but it's really fun now. We love close games anyway, especially if you're a neutral fan, so why not wait for the game to go to overtime?"

Giffen said he plans to continue to look for edges on games to go to overtime as long as the market doesn't adjust.

"It was definitely the weirdest sweat I've ever had."

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