Steelers vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds | NFL Week 13 Betting Pick

Steelers vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds | NFL Week 13 Betting Pick article feature image

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Steelers vs Cardinals Odds, Prediction

Sunday, Dec. 3
1 p.m. ET
Steelers Odds
-110o / -110u
Cardinals Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The latest Steelers vs. Cardinals odds have Pittsburgh as 6.5-point favorites on the spread with a consensus game total over/under of 41 for NFL Week 13. My NFL pick is backing the underdog here.

One game after the ouster of maligned offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers offense finally met the preseason hype. Sorta. They only scored 16 points, but they generated a season-high 421 yards of total offense. Pittsburgh has an opportunity to continue its newfound offensive momentum against the Cardinals, who had their worst defensive game of the season last week against the Rams, surrendering 37 points. That being said, I'm undeterred in backing Arizona to keep it close.

Let's deep dive into Arizona-Pittsburgh and make a Steelers vs. Cardinals prediction.

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Steelers vs Cardinals Pick

Pick: Cardinals +6.5 | Bet to +6

Steelers vs. Cardinals

Matchup Analysis

Week 12 was the first time all season Pittsburgh gained more yards than its opponent. Creating that success in a road divisional game makes it much sweeter. The Steelers sit at 7-4 with four straight games against teams who have changed quarterbacks at least once this year. If their offensive performance is not a mirage, there is a clear path to an AFC North title.

The main beneficiaries of the offensive adjustments were Najee Harris and Pat Freiermuth.

Harris showed his strength and explosiveness while averaging 6.6 yards per carry. That's highest mark of the season and second-best total for his career. While Harris grounded and pounded, Freiermuth carved up Cincinnati on the receiving end. His 120 yards are a new career best.

Defensively, the Steelers have been one of the best teams as they allow the fifth-fewest points per game. The keys to Pittsburgh’s success are turnovers and red-zone defense.

Pittsburgh has forced the third-most turnovers and ranks fifth in red zone defense, according to Pro-Football-Reference. The Steelers have a classic bend-but-don’t-break style as they allow the eighth-most yards per game. However, their ability to play situational football and create turnovers more than makes up for the yardage they allow.

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Steelers -6.5

Cardinals +6.5

In Kyler Murray’s return against Atlanta, Arizona pulled off an amazing last-second comeback.  Since then, it has been rough sledding for the Cardinals.

They are under 20 points scored in each game and the defense has deteriorated. Arizona has allowed an average of 438 yards of total offense, and most recently allowed a season-high in points to the Rams.

In this matchup, the problem for Arizona is its inability to stop the run. The Cardinals rank 26th in yards per attempt allowed and 30th in rushing yards allowed per game.

Per nfelo, the Steelers rank 11th lowest in pass rate over expected. Pittsburgh wants to run the ball to take pressure off its young quarterback. Against the Cardinals, that should be no problem.

Offensively, Arizona has done one thing well: run the ball.

Arizona is third in yards per carry and 10th in rushing yards per game. The Steelers have allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game. Having a strong rushing attack is key against the Steelers as it reduces the impact of T.J. Watt and Pittsburgh's fierce pass rush. If the Cards can lean on their run game, they will cause problems for the Steelers.

Steelers vs. Cardinals

Betting Picks & Predictions

Pittsburgh showed out in its first week with a new offensive coordinator, but the results were the same. Despite all the extra yards, Pittsburgh scored 16 points and won by fewer than seven points. That's in line with its wins when Matt Canada was offensive coordinator.

The Steelers are favorites of 6.5 points — anyone who follows them or betting trends know that Mike Tomlin's squad is best as an underdog, not a favorite.

If the number were seven it would be perfect. However, this cushion is way too much to give for the Steelers. Their play style simply lends itself to close games.

Pick: Cardinals +6.5 | Bet to +6
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