The Baltimore Ravens (2-5) and Miami Dolphins (2-6) meet on Thursday Night Football on October 30. Kickoff is set for in 8:15 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. The game will broadcast Prime Video.
The Ravens are favored by -7.5 points on the spread over the Dolphins (Ravens -7.5). The over/under is set at 50.5 points. Baltimore is a -425 moneyline favorite and Miami is a +325 underdog.
Find my Thursday Night Football preview and Ravens vs Dolphins prediction below.
Ravens vs Dolphins Prediction
- Ravens vs Dolphins pick: Dolphins 1st Half Spread +4 (-105); bet to +3.5
My Ravens vs Dolphins best bet is on the Dolphins to cover the first-half spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Ravens vs Dolphins Odds
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
Ravens vs Dolphins Thursday Night Football Preview
When the Ravens Have the Ball
Lamar Jackson is expected to return tonight from the hamstring injury that’s sidelined him for three straight games. It looked like he was set to play last week, but was ultimately held out, likely because Baltimore have the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football.
The Ravens desperately need Jackson back. At 2-5, their playoff hopes are hanging by a thread, and they need to start stacking wins now.
The offense has been night and day with vs. without Jackson, averaging 6.5 yards per play with him compared to just 5.1 without him.
This is an ideal bounce-back spot for the Ravens against a Dolphins defense ranked 31st in DVOA. The concern is whether Jackson's hamstring limits his rushing or risks an in-game setback.
I’m expecting vintage Jackson — but there’s still a bit of uncertainty. Miami’s defense showed some life last week, holding the Falcons to just 10 points. Granted, that was against Kirk Cousins in a spot start, but even Bijan Robinson, one of the league’s most talented backs, was bottled up for 25 rushing yards.
Dolphins linebackers Jordyn Brooks and Tyrel Dodson have been excellent against the run, and with Minkah Fitzpatrick roaming behind them, the Miami should be better at preventing explosive runs.
However, the Dolphins' defensive line has struggled, allowing the third-highest yards before contact (2.01 per carry). That’s a huge problem against Derrick Henry, who thrives when he gets downhill.
Expect the Ravens offense to operate close to their ceiling in this matchup if Jackson looks anything close to 100%.
When the Dolphins Have the Ball
The Dolphins offense finally showed signs of life on Sunday, hanging 34 points on a much-improved Falcons defense that ranks 10th in DVOA.
It was Miami's first 30-point game of the season, and interestingly, it did it by going more run-heavy than usual. The Dolphins have posted bottom-five pass rates over expected in back-to-back weeks, with head coach Mike McDaniel clearly committing to a more balanced approach.
De'Von Achane continues to serve as Dolphins' primary explosive playmaker, particularly in the passing game, while Ollie Gordon has emerged as the short-yardage bruiser this offense has lacked in recent years.
Gordon is coming off his best performance of the season, going for 10/46/0 and converting 5-of-6 short-yardage rushes into first downs. That small improvement in efficiency gives the Dolphins a real edge in sustaining drives, which was their main weakness the last couple seasons.
The Ravens defense has been a disappointment overall, ranking 23rd in DVOA, though much of that stems from injuries. They’re healthier now and trending upward, so this matchup is tougher than the numbers suggest.
The Dolphins can still move the ball effectively early if they remain balanced, but if the Ravens build a two-score lead, Miami’s offense will become far more predictable.
Tua Tagovailoa excels at quick reads and timing throws, yet when his first option is covered, his lack of mobility limits what he can create. The Dolphins are most dangerous when the defense still has to respect the threat of the run, which should be the case in the first half tonight.
Ravens vs Dolphins Prediction, Betting Analysis
The total at 51.5 feels a touch high (I project closer to 50.5), but I think the real value lies in the Dolphins 1st half spread at +3.5.
I have the full-game spread closer to Ravens -6.5, and this sets up as a spot where Baltimore could start slow after reintegrating Lamar Jackson, before finding their rhythm later on. Miami’s offense should be at its best early, when it can mix in the run and play-action before game script forces them to air it out.
I prefer the first-half line to the full-game +7.5 since the Dolphins are far more effective when the script stays balanced. Plus, Tua Tagovailoa and this Dolphins offense have consistently been sharper at home, going 15-10 ATS under Mike McDaniel.
With both teams likely leaning run-heavy early, the first-half underdog gets a natural edge from there being fewer possessions potentially.
One sneaky factor the market may be overlooking is the Dolphins' special teams edge. Malik Washington has quietly been one of the best returners in the NFL, and with Tyler Loop and Baltimore’s coverage unit allowing the third-best average starting field position on kickoffs, a single long return could easily swing a first-half cover.
Add it all up, and Dolphins 1st Half +3.5 still looks like the sharper side.
The Ravens are clearly the better team, and it’s no surprise most of the action (probably around 80%) is on them, but this sets up as a spot where they could head into halftime with only a field goal lead or a much closer game than the market expects.
Pick: Dolphins 1st Half Spread +4 (-105); bet to +3.5
Spread
Instead of taking the full-game line, I like the Dolphins to cover the first half spread (+4 to +3.5).
Moneyline
I have no play on either moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no play on the game total, which feels a bit high at 51.5 points.
