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Bills vs Bengals Picks: Our 3 Monday Night Football Predictions

Bills vs Bengals Picks: Our 3 Monday Night Football Predictions article feature image
  • Bills vs. Bengals closes Week 17 on Monday Night Football.
  • Our analysts have three picks on this game, all of which are player props.
  • Check out our favorite Bills vs. Bengals player props below.

After looking through the Bills vs Bengals odds, our staff of betting analysts is settled on three props as its favorite NFL picks on Monday Night Football.

While Chris Raybon has you covered on the spread, check out our favorite Bills vs Bengals picks below.


Bills vs. Bengals Odds

Bills Odds -2.5
Bengals Odds +2.5
Moneyline -136 / +116
Over/Under 50.5
Odds via FanDuel.

Bills vs Bengals Picks

Click on a pick to skip ahead
Josh Allen Rushing Yards
Trenton Irwin Anytime Touchdown
Devin Singletary Rushing Yards

Pick
Josh Allen Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
Best Book
Time
8:20 p.m. ET

Brandon Anderson: In a huge game for Buffalo, my first instinct is always to look for Josh Allen rushing overs. The Bills have established a clear pattern with Allen over the last couple seasons.

They save his legs against opponents they can beat otherwise, but break out their battering ram and give Allen designed runs and more freedom to scramble in the biggest moments.

Take a look at how strong Allen’s splits are:

  • 11 games vs. non-playoff teams last season: 5.7 rushes for 38 yards
  • 8 games vs. playoff teams last season: 9.5 rushes for 59 yards
  • 6 games vs. presumed non-playoff teams this season: 5.8 rushes for 36 yards
  • 9 games vs. presumed playoff teams this season: 9.3 rushes for 60 yards

The pattern is clear and the numbers are consistent from last season to this. When Buffalo plays its biggest games, Allen runs more, typically around 10 times for 60 yards.

Allen’s rushing attempts prop is at 8.5. He’s gone over that in 12-of-17 games (71%) against playoff opponents across these two seasons. He’s run for at least 44 yards in 13 of the 17 (76%), and he’s 10-7 (59%) to the posted 48.5 yards over with several close misses.

I love both overs for Allen. Cincinnati ranks bottom five against designed QB runs, and both of its best pass rushers are banged up so containing Allen could be a serious chore. Add in a 50% chance of rain and that’s even more of a setup for Allen to tuck and run.

I expect around 10 rushes for 65 yards, so I’m compelled to play an Allen rushing yards escalator as well. At FanDuel, we can play 60+ yards at +174 and 70+ at +300. Allen has hit 60 in nearly half of these games against playoff opponents (8-of-17, 47%). He’s also hit 70 five times this year, all against possible playoff opponents.

The Pick: Bet Josh Allen over 47.5 rushing yards (and Allen escalator 60+ at +182, 70+ at +310)

Pick: Josh Allen Over 47.5 Rushing Yards

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Pick
Trenton Irwin Anytime Touchdown (+750)
Best Book
Time
8:20 p.m. ET

Ricky Henne: If you’re looking for a pure dart throw with excellent bang for your buck, look no further than a Trenton Irwin anytime touchdown.

The Bengals boast arguably the most talented wide receiver corps in the league, highlighted by Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. However, it’s the unheralded Irwin who has been a magnet for the end zone of late, scoring three touchdowns over the past three weeks.

Irwin took advantage when the Bengals were missing some of their stud wideouts for a month-long stretch, and earned Joe Burrow’s trust with his clutch play. As a result, despite the Bengals having their complete arsenal of receivers back, he’s maintained a role.

Irwin was on the field for 45% of offensive snaps a week ago and scored a pair of touchdowns. The first was on a 23-yard strike on the Bengals’ second possession. What’s particularly noteworthy is that despite all of Cincy’s weapons, Burrow looked his way on a pivotal 3rd-and-goal in the closing seconds of the first half. Irwin rewarded him with a four-yard touchdown catch to give Cincy a 22-0 lead. Oh, and by the way, his two touchdowns came against a New England defense that’s third in pass DVOA (-12.7%), according to Football Outsiders.

While Irwin is fourth on the depth chart, he should nonetheless get a fair share of targets as the Bengals are one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL. They throw the ball 61.7% percent of the time, which is seventh highest in the league.

Burrow’s 564 passes are fifth among all quarterbacks, and he’s fresh off a game in which he threw the ball 52 times. Don’t be shocked if he drops back at a similar volume in what figures to be a shootout against an equally potent Bills offense.

There are safer ways to turn a profit, but if you’re looking for something with long odds, an Irwin anytime touchdown might as well be the horse to back.

The odds range wildly depending on the sportsbook. As of Sunday night, you can grab it anywhere between +290 and +850. Make sure to check our props tab to see which book is offering it at the best odds to maximize potential profit.

Pick: Trenton Irwin Anytime TD (+750)



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Pick
Devin Singletary Over 44.5 Rushing Yards
Best Book
Time
8:20 p.m. ET

Tony Sartori: There are a couple of reasons why this number only sits at 44.5.

First, the Bills are typically pass heavy. Second, the Bills have been getting James Cook involved more out of the backfield. While a lot of his usage is as a pass-catching back, he still takes time away from Singletary. Finally, the Bengals’ run defense ranks seventh in the league in rushing yards allowed per game.

With all that being said, Singletary’s rushing yards prop is still set too low at 44.5.

Racking up at least 45 rushing yards in seven of his last 10 games, Singletary should eclipse that figure against a defense primed for regression. Entering this week, Cincinnati ranks 14th in rush DVOA, which is solid but not quite as good as its surface-level stats suggest.

Additionally, the weather could help as the forecast calls for a 90% chance of rain in Cincinnati during the game. Throwing in some extra carries because of the weather for a guy who has eclipsed this total in seven of his last 10 games is typically a good recipe for success.

Pick: Devin Singletary Over 44.5 Rushing Yards



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