Broncos vs Bears Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 4

We open the main slate of NFL Week 4 by breaking down the Broncos vs. Bears odds.

I don’t think two teams have entered a game with so much disappointment before. Coming into the year, Denver and Chicago had playoff aspirations – now both are just looking for a win. Can Sean Payton finally get his first win as Broncos head coach? Can Justin Fields do anything?

Let's break down the matchup and make our Broncos vs. Bears pick.

Entering the new NFL season, the thought was Arizona had the rare chance to end up with the first two picks in the draft. After this weekend, it might be Chicago holding the first-round picks of the only winless teams.

On offense, despite having a diverse array of weapons, the Bears are completely lost. They are 25th in yards per drive and 24th in points per drive. While those numbers aren't the worst, they are extremely disappointing given preseason expectations.

To limit my rant, here is a link to the QB School, which absolutely demolishes the scheme and Justin Fields' ability to read the defense. These struggles have come despite Chicago living in garbage time.

The one glimmer of hope for the Bears offense is their ability to run the ball. Their 4.3 yards per carry is 11th — and that is not just because of Justin Fields.

Khalil Herbert has averaged 4.0 yards per carry and rookie Roschon Johnson has been impressive at 5.3 yards per carry. Needless to say, the fact that it took three games for Chicago to realize it should be utilizing a ground-heavy attack is a massive black mark on the coaching staff. 

Unfortunately for the Bears, their defense has somehow been worse. They are 29th in yards allowed per drive and 31st in points allowed per drive.

They rank eighth in yards allowed per rush, but that is inflated by teams running the clock out in the second half. In the first half, Chicago averages 4.3 yards per carry allowed; in the second half, a.k.a. garbage time, they allow 2.9 yards per carry.

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Turning to the Broncos, they have been a complete inverse of last year.

The offense under Sean Payton has been brought back to life. They are ninth in yards per drive and 12th in points per drive. The issue has been the drop-off from the first to the second half.

In the first half, the Broncos average 9.3 yards per pass and 4.7 yards per rush. In the second half, they average just 6.0 yards per pass and 4.1 yards per carry.

Whether it's defenses adjusting or running out of scripted plays, something is clearly amiss after half. If the Broncos can figure it out, their offense could live up to their reputation.

As for the Broncos defense, they have gone from top of the line in 2022 to bottom of the barrel in 2023. We can quote stats, but after allowing 70 to the Dolphins, a quick summary is Denver is last in everything.

Even if you assume they quit against Miami, there is still no explanation for what happened in Week 2 against the Commanders. In terms of matchups, though, Denver has the benefit of having Patrick Surtain to limit the Bears' only receiving threat, DJ Moore.

If there were ever an opportunity for Denver's defense to get right, this is it. 

At the end of the day, trusting either of these teams will leave a sick feeling in your stomach.

However, one team has a path to potentially the first two picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. We are far from the “tanking” part of the season, but the level of urgency is much higher for the Broncos. 

With the Broncos having extra heat after the historic loss to Miami, plus a more capable offense, they are the side I like in this game.

A standard view in a crapshoot like this is to take the points, especially at a hook like 3.5. But it's hard to find any redeeming qualities to what the Bears have done on either side of the ball. Denver has at least shown spurts of hope.