Broncos vs. Chargers MNF Prediction: NFL Luck Rankings Say Bet On Russell Wilson & Co.
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction
|Over/Under||45.5 (o -112 / u -108)|
|Date||Monday, October 17|
|Time||8:15 p.m. ET|
*Odds via FanDuel as of Monday morning
Broncos vs. Chargers on Monday Night Football has solid value on one side of the spread, according to our NFL Luck Rankings.
The Action Network designed these rankings to identify which teams have been the most lucky or unlucky so far this season.
Our predictive analytics team has measured this phenomenon by creating a metric called “Luck%,” which represents the win probability difference between a team’s expected on-field performance and their current win percentage.
In all, the higher a team’s Luck%, the more lucky they are.
For Monday Night Football, the Broncos have been the No. 30 most lucky team so far this season.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are the 12th luckiest.
This 18-place difference in rankings is substantial.
Unlucky teams that are at least 16 places more unlucky than their opponent are 13-2 against the spread (ATS) since Week 3, when Action Network began tracking these results. The Chargers have also been 31.2% more lucky than the Broncos, according to our predictive data.
An unlucky team with a Luck Gap of 25% or more has gone 19-6 ATS since Week 3, too.
Luckier teams tend to be broadly overvalued in the market.
The Broncos’ spread is also the sharp pick tonight, according to the wise guys. About 35% of the retail bettors are on the spread, but 63% of the smart money is on that same line (find real-time public betting data here).
That 28% discrepancy indicates a large group of big moneyed bettors are slapping a lot of cash on the Broncos to cover tonight.
The best market price is +5 (-110) at BallyBet.
You can also get Broncos +5.5 (-125) at FanDuel, should you be so inclined.
NFL Luck Rankings Lean: Broncos +5