Broncos vs Chargers Best Bets: 3 Picks for Monday Night Football
- Week 6 finishes up with Broncos vs. Chargers on Monday night.
- Denver is a 4-point underdog at SoFi Stadium.
- Three betting analysts lay out their favorite bets below.
Broncos vs. Chargers Odds
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -108 | 45.5 -108o / -112u | +180 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -112 | 45.5 -108o / -112u | -215 |
Broncos vs. Chargers Picks
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Brandon Anderson: Denver is playing for pride and maybe its season after getting booed off its home field before overtime even started last Thursday, and Russell Wilson apparently has a shoulder injury. The Broncos offense has been almost as bad as Nathaniel Hackett's game management.
You have to like this backs-against-the-wall spot, though. Our proprietary Action Network Luck Rankings rate the Chargers as 25.5% more lucky than Denver, the third unluckiest team in the league. The Broncos are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) while the Chargers are 4-1, those hidden lucky bounces shifting a few covers and wins in each direction.
Broncos +4 | Chargers -4
These things tend to even out as the season progresses. Just look at the landslide of trends begging us to bet Denver:
- 20% ATS or worse from October forward: 157-116-6 (58%)
- Such teams vs. 80% ATS or better: 84-47-3 (64%)
- Opponents with 80-99% ATS record in Weeks 6 or 7: 65-38-3 ATS (63%)
- Underdogs against such opponents: 49-22-1 ATS (69%)
- 20% ATS or worse vs. 75% ATS or better Week 6 forward: 26-9-1 ATS (74%)
These trends are fancy ways of showing the same thing — regression to the mean is coming for both teams. On top of that, Russell Wilson is great in this spot: 60% ATS after a loss, 67% ATS as a divisional underdog, and 65% ATS at home in primetime.
Denver's defense has been good enough to keep it in games, and it's not like the Chargers have been particularly good, especially on early downs. Eight of the last 12 games in this rivalry were one-score affairs, and Denver will have more fans at this game than LA.
I hate backing Denver right now, but these teams just aren't as far apart as this line indicates.
Broncos +4 | Chargers -4
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Nick Bretwisch: It sounds like Melvin Gordon is going to be a go for the Monday Night Football matchup against the Chargers. Despite the fumbling issues and lack of production, Gordon is still the lead back of this Broncos offense with the snap share and routes ran edge in is favor.
This matchup against the Chargers will offer a lot of dump-off action in the flats for these Denver running backs, as the Chargers will continue to play a lot of man coverage and bring five or more rushers often to disrupt Russell Wilson.
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Sam Farley: Williams had a slow start to his NFL career, but he's showing flashes of the type of play that everyone thought he was capable of as the No. 7 overall pick out of Clemson. Since the start of last season, he has started cementing his status as one of the best WRs in the NFL.
Williams has topped 100 yards in three of the four games that Keenan Allen has missed this season, and it sounds like Allen will be out again tonight. In the last two weeks alone, Williams has 254 receiving yards.
Having been given a three-year contract worth $60 million in the offseason, Williams is on pace for new career highs in receiving yards and receptions. He also leads the league in contested catches with nine and is arguably a top-five WR on current form.
Last week he had a 39.4% target share, and that is likely to be replicated again against the Broncos.
Williams' receiving yard line sits at 68.5, and we will be taking the over. Allen is listed as doubtful for this game, having not played since Week 1, so this line might move once his absence is confirmed. I'd play that all the way up to 74.5 receiving yards.
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