The Buffalo Bills (12-5) and Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) meet today in the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The game will broadcast on CBS.
The Jaguars are 1.5-point favorites on the spread (Jaguars -1.5), with a game total of 51.5. The Jaguars are -125 moneyline favorites; the Bills are +105 underdogs.
Let's get into my Bills vs Jaguars predictions and anytime touchdown parlay picks — plus the latest NFL odds, betting trends, inactives, weather forecast and more.
Bills vs Jaguars Predictions, Picks, TD Parlay
- Bills vs Jaguars pick: Jaguars 1st Half Moneyline
- Bills vs Jaguars TD Parlay: Trevor Lawrence + Dalton Kincaid (+900)
My Bills vs Jaguars best bet is the Jaguars' 1st half moneyline. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Bills vs Jaguars Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
Bills vs Jaguars Preview, Prediction
The Jaguars enter the NFL playoffs on an eight-game winning streak — with a +153 point differential — to close out the regular season.
Oddly, that number happens to be the current road playoff losing streak for the Bills, who have lost eight straight away from home since beating the Dolphins in 1992.
Under head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills have gone 0-5 straight up (SU) and 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in road postseason games.
The good news this year? Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs aren't on the other sideline. The bad news? The red-hot Jaguars offense won't be easy to contend with.
What has led to this late-season surge for the Jaguars after a pedestrian start to the season? A friendly schedule certainly helped their cause, but Jacksonville convincingly defeated the Chargers and the Broncos (in Denver), which gives the winning streak more merit.
Let's start with the Jaguars offense, which has trended up since acquiring Jakobi Meyers from the Raiders prior to Week 10. Since then, the Jags rank third in dropback EPA and fourth in dropback Success Rate.
Almost all of Trevor Lawrence's improvement has come against zone coverage — this is important considering the Bills play a high percentage of zone. Buffalo will also be without rookie corner Maxwell Hairston on the outside after he suffered an ankle injury in Week 18.
- Weeks 1-9 vs zone: 48% success rate (19th), 0.13 EPA per Play
- Weeks 10-18 vs zone: 58% success rate (3rd), 0.347 EPA per Play
While Meyers gets most of the publicity for the Jaguars' surge, plenty of other factors have contributed to their success. You'd naturally expect improvement as the season progressed with a new scheme under first-year head coach Liam Coen.
Brian Thomas Jr. also got healthier, Parker Washington emerged as one of the most electric receivers in the NFL, and stud tight end Brenton Strange returned from injury.
Additionally, in the second half of the season, Jacksonville inserted Cole Van Lanen at tackle, where he has thrived — enough so that he recently inked a 3-year, $51 million contract extension — as a marked improvement over Walker Little, who was moved inside to guard, where he looks to be better suited.
The Jaguars defense has also improved over the last two months.
Early in the season, takeaways fueled the Jaguars' success, but they rank second in EPA per play without turnovers since Week 10. The Jags are one of only four defenses in the league that rank in the top seven in DVOA against the pass and run (along with the Seahawks, Rams, and Texans).
In contrast, the Bills defense ranks 17th in EPA per Play without turnovers since Week 10 and sits 20th in overall DVOA, including a putrid 31st against the run. Allowing Coen's offense to get going on the ground could spell doom for Buffalo, which ranks in the bottom five in both open field/second-level yards allowed.
I'm not discounting the impact of an easy schedule for the Jaguars, with two games against the Colts (with no Daniel Jones) and Titans, in addition to the Jets, Cardinals, and Texans (with no C.J. Stroud). However, the emergence of Antonio Johnson (PFF's highest-rated safety) is undeniable.
Former seventh-rounder Montaric Brown has also improved significantly on the outside at cornerback, which was necessary with Jarrian Jones playing in the slot following Jourdan Lewis' injury.
Jacksonville also saw the return of starting safety Eric Murray, which meant no more playing time for Juan Thornhill, who ranks 98th out of 98 safeties, per PFF.
All that said, I believe the Jaguars' secondary is the primary weak link of this team, and there are a few injuries worth monitoring as well. However, there are real reasons for optimism surrounding the group even without Travis Hunter (torn LCL; out for season) and Lewis (foot; out for season).
The Jaguars' rush defense has been stout all season, ranking third in rushing success rate and top five in both open field/second-level yards allowed. That will be key against the dangerous James Cook and a rusy-heavy Buffalo offense.
Bills vs Jaguars Moneyline Prediction; Anytime Touchdown Parlay
Why do I prefer the Jaguars moneyline in the first half over the full game? Mainly I trust the Jacksonville' game script — look for some killer screens from Liam Coen that should work beautifully — more than Buffalo's early.
Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady leans on the rushing game a bit too much early in games, which could be limiting against a strong Jaguars front.
However, if the Bills are forced to unleash Josh Allen in a trailing game script, they could find plenty of success against a zone-heavy Jags defense that has some holes, especially considering Buffalo's underwhelming receivers struggle much more against man coverage. The Bills have averaged approximately 1.5 yards more per drop pass attempt vs. zone.
Season-long splits paint a similar story for how this game could play out.
The Bills and Jaguars rank in the top 10 in EPA per play in the first quarter and first half. However, Jacksonville's numbers fall off a cliff in the second half (21st in the second half/31st in fourth quarter); Buffalo ranks first in EPA per play in the second half and fourth quarter.
Part of the Jaguars' second-half decline has to do with the amount of blowouts they have had, especially of late, with six of their past nine wins coming by at least two touchdowns. As a result, they were merely running out the clock (with backups in at times), which led to a 20% rush success rate in the fourth quarter since Week 10 (the worst mark in the NFL by margin). That partially explains why the Jaguars rank 31st in rush success rate during their winning streak; they ranked 11th in the first half of those games.
Instead, let's focus on the two quarterbacks and how they performed in the first half vs. the second half (out of 32 qualified QBs).
First Half
- Lawrence: 12th EPA+CPOE composite; 14th Adjusted EPA per Play; 16th Success Rate
- Allen: 22nd EPA+CPOE composite; 19th Adjusted EPA per Play; 2nd Success Rate
Second Half
- Lawrence: 28th EPA+CPOE composite; 17th Adjusted EPA per Play; 21st Success Rate
- Allen: 2nd EPA+CPOE composite; 1st Adjusted EPA per Play; 22nd Success Rate
That's a pretty stark contrast, and I think it speaks to the offensive game plans of each team as much as anything. In fairness to Lawrence, he has been better after halftime since Week 10 — just not at the level of Allen over that span.
I believe the Jaguars will jump out to an early lead in front of a raucous crowd and then have to hold on for dear life against Allen, who is Buffalo's trump card. He might just be enough to get the Bills to the Super Bowl despite a clearly flawed roster.
3 final notes:
- The Jaguars have the superior special teams unit and a major edge at kicker with the cheat code known as Cam Cook, who is 2-for-2 on field goals from 67-plus yards out (every other kicker in NFL history has gone 0-for-22). The Bills' new starting kicker, Matt Prater, suffered an injury last week.
- Buffalo could get healthier on defense, but still might not be at full strength. Joey Bosa should return to provide more juice to the pass rush, but it's still TBD on how healthy defensive tackle DaQuan Jones, linebacker Terrel Bernard and safety Jordan Poyer will be.
- For all of their improvement, the Jaguars have benefited from an easy schedule of opposing quarterbacks and have been pretty fortunate with takeaways and opponent fourth-down conversions (11-for-31). There's potential for negative regression.
Pick: Jaguars 1st Half Moneyline
Anytime touchdown parlay flier: Trevor Lawrence + Dalton Kincaid (+900)
Lawrence had seven rushing touchdowns over the final 10 games of the regular season; he could find the end zone via sneak or scramble near the goal line against a Bills defense that's vulnerable against mobile QBs.
Kincaid could easily find success in the middle of the field against Jacksonville's zone schemes.
Bills vs Jaguars Betting Trends
Bills vs Jaguars Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | EverBank Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, Jan. 11 |
| Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | CBS |
Bills vs Jaguars Injuries, Inactivies
Bills Inactives
- LB Terrel Bernard
- S Darnell Savage
- RB Ty Johnson
- CB Maxwell Hairston
- T Tylan Grable
- TE Keleki Latu
- DT Larry Ogunjobi
Jaguars Inactives
- LT Cole Van Lanen
- TE Hunter Long
- RB DeeJay Dallas
- WR Dyami Brown
- DT Maason Smith
- DE Emmanuel Ogbah
